511
FXUS63 KICT 030503
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1103 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of very light snow flurries spreading south from later tonight
  through Wednesday night. No accumulation or adverse impacts
  expected.

- Turning colder and breezy Wednesday--Thursday, with single
  digit wind chills early Thursday. This will likely be the
  coldest period of the next 7-10 days.

- Moderating temperatures Friday--Saturday, with another cool down
  Sunday--Monday.

- A possible return to above average temperatures by Tuesday or
  Wednesday of next week.

- Major storm systems look unlikely the next 7-10 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

PRECIPITATION:

A deep cold frontal zone moving south through the region amidst weak-
modest large scale lift ahead of an approaching western CONUS upper
trough should support areas of very light snow flurries and
sprinkles later tonight through early Thursday. For tonight,
thinking they will be confined to mainly I-70 counties. From
Wednesday through early Thursday, these very light snow flurry
chances should gradually shift/expand south through the rest of
central, eastern, and southern Kansas. Rather high cloud bases and
only weak to modest lift will prevent any accumulation or adverse
impacts with any of this activity.

Otherwise, per deterministic and ensemble consensus, mostly dry
northwest flow is expected through the next 7-10 days, which should
support mostly dry weather. The only exception could be some light
wintry precipitation late Saturday through Sunday as a shortwave
moves southeast through the region and a cold front moves south.
Quite a bit of uncertainty with this system, with the GFS being more
bullish compared to the ECMWF and CMC. Either way, a major storm
system looks unlikely. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in
the coming days.

TEMPERATURES:

Arctic high pressure will plunge south into Mid-America Wednesday
and Thursday, supporting chilly well below average temperatures and
breezy/gusty northeast winds. Early Thursday morning will likely be
the coldest of the next 7-10 days, with single digit wind chills
likely.

Moderating temperatures are likely Friday and Saturday, before
another cold front brings temperatures down again Sunday and Monday,
but probably not as cold as Wednesday--Thursday.

Taking a look ahead into next week...model consensus supports a
return to above average temperatures by Tuesday/Wednesday of next
week, as a stout area of upper level high pressure gradually builds
east out of the western CONUS. At this time, daytime highs in the
50s and overnight lows in the 30s look probable.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Main aviation concern will be low ceilings as a cold front
pushes through on Wednesday.

Cold front currently stretches from southern MN across SD and is
continuing to push south. Front is expected to move into central
KS around sunrise and the Wichita area around 18z. We should
see ceilings lower as it moves through with MVFR levels likely.
Also not out of the question that we may see some flurries or
sprinkles as the lower levels saturate with the surge of cold
air. Ceilings will start to increase by the early evening hours
area wide with VFR levels expected at all sites by around 03z.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...RBL