Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
962 FXUS61 KILN 231130 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 630 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move across the area through Monday. Rain will return Monday night and continue into Wednesday morning when a cold front moves through the region. In the wake of the front, it will be brisk and cold. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Low clouds across southern Illinois are likely to continue moving east southeast this morning. These may eventually make it into the Tri-State and further east along the Ohio River today, although probably not as solid a deck and rather transient. Otherwise, there will be a good deal of sun as high pressure builds in. Highs will be in the lower to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... High pressure will move across the area tonight and pass off to the east on Monday. River valley fog will likely develop overnight. Otherwise, just some high clouds spreading into the area. Lows will drop into the lower to mid 30s with highs back into the lower to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short wave in the central Plains to start the period will weaken as it heads east northeast through the night, passing across the region Tuesday morning. This will result in widespread rain moving into the area Monday night. The rain will diminish through Tuesday as forcing moves out. Guidance suite has come into much better agreement handling northern stream system that will be tracking across the northern Plains on Tuesday and then closing off as it pivots across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. While there are still some minor differences, overall that should have little effect on the sensible weather for the area. A cold front will move through late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with some additional rain ahead of the front. Temperatures will fall through Wednesday afternoon and winds will become gusty. Brisk conditions will persist into Thursday after which the pressure gradient will relax as high pressure finally builds in. Temperatures will be around 10 degrees below normal The high will move across the area on Friday. There is increasing uncertainty heading into Saturday depending on the speed and amplitude of an approaching short wave as mid level flow back to west southwest. Fairly even split between ensemble clusters whether precipitation moves in Saturday afternoon or whether the area stays dry though then. Only very modest warming on Saturday. && .AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Visibility restrictions at KLUK to start the period will diminish by 15Z. Low cloud deck moving across southern Illinois may eventually brush by the Cincinnati terminals. Confidence in this occurring, as well as coverage, is low. But kept a lower scattered deck in the TAFs. Elsewhere, only some high clouds. Fog will redevelop at KLUK during the latter part of the period bringing a return of LIFR. Some visibility restrictions are possible at other sites, but only to MVFR for the most part. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely late Monday night into Tuesday, with MVFR ceilings possible into Wednesday. Winds gusts to around 30 kt are possible Wednesday and Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...