Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
199 FXUS61 KILN 011552 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1152 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will drop southeast across the region over the weekend. This will lead to the potential for some light rain, primarily Saturday night into Sunday morning. Dry conditions are expected next week as high pressure settles in. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... An upper level low pressure system evident on WV imagery over southeast IA late this morning will drift slowly south across the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. As it does, a weak surface reflection will develop off to our southwest overnight. In response to this, some light southwest low level flow will develop through the overnight hours with some developing weak isentropic lift spreading into our area from the southwest. As a result, expect to see some light rain overspread out southern areas as we progress through the night. The highest pops will be along and south of the Ohio River where we will have likely to categorical pops. We will then decrease pops fairly quickly to the north, with just a slight chance across central portions of our area. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The upper level low will traverse southeast across the Tennessee Valley through the day on Sunday. In association with this, a weak inverted surface trough will nose up into the mid Ohio Valley early Sunday before shifting off to the southeast through the afternoon. As a result, expect to see some light rain activity persist into Sunday morning across our south before tapering off as we head into the afternoon. Some mid level ridging will begin to build into the region behind the upper level low later Sunday afternoon and into Sunday night, leading to a decreasing cloud trend. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid to upper 50s with lows Sunday night in the mid to upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Fairly uneventful forecast across the long term period as the jet stream becomes more zonal across the region. High pressure builds over the area Monday and Tuesday, and high temperatures are closer to seasonal normals. A chance for mid 60s arrives on Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Low pressure passes to the north Wednesday night, and the associated cold front moves through with limited moisture. For now, rainfall chances are quite low so the forecast is dry with this particular system. The cold front does usher in a slightly cooler air mass into Thursday, reducing high temperatures back to seasonal normals. To wrap up the work week, another system is expected to move into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Depending on the timing, some warmth (mid 60s) may spread northward ahead of the system before a cold front moves through. At this time, this system looks like the next best chance for more widespread rainfall chances. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak surface low will move east across the Tennessee Valley later tonight and into Sunday morning, leading to a developing chance for light rain across southern portions of our area. The best chance for rain will be along and south of the Ohio River so this will mainly affect KCVG/KLUK where cigs and vsbys will drop into MVFR category overnight, with some IFR cigs possible at times. These conditions will linger into Sunday morning before trending back into VFR through late morning and afternoon. Farther north, KILN will be on the edge of the pcpn so will only allow for a prob30 for MVFR conditions for a few hours later tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at the remaining TAF sites. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM... AVIATION...JGL