Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 281442
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1042 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER KENTUCKY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY.
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S
WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY. SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100
ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EVENING AND DIE OUT
ENTIRELY BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE RIPE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. STORMS
OVERNIGHT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL MARK AN END TO THE HUMID AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...THEN DROP TO THE MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
THE POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...MID 80S
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
POOLING AROUND THE FRONT HAVE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS TO
PROVIDE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SRN TAFS. THE FOG
WILL BURN IN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE FCST PERIOD...BRINGING
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

H5 RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. DESPITE THE WARMER AIRALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE...THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENUF CONVERGENCE
AROUND THE FRONT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE SRN TAF SITES. ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND KLUK THIS
AFTN. CONVECTION SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH TONIGHT...SO EXPECT ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FOG. LUK SHOULD GO DOWN TO LIFR AND CVG/ILN SHOULD DROP
TO IFR VSBYS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL KEEP THE NRN TAFS MVFR ON
THE FOG TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES


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