Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 031303
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
903 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND THEN
WEAKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWER AND DRIZZLE ACTIVITY HAS
OVERSPREAD NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA THIS MORNING. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS OHIO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL HANG ON TO A LITTLE DRIZZLE ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE NORTH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE
CLOUDS...WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND NUDGE DOWN TEMPERATURES A BIT
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE INITIAL VORT MAX WITH THE S/W MOVES NE AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION THIS EVENING...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING AND
ELONGATING WITH A N-S AXIS OVER THE IN/OH BORDER. THE REGION WILL
BE IN GENERAL DOWNWARD MOTION IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER S/W...AND
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOUND THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AFTER
THIS...THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL
STRENGTHENING L/W TROUGH WHICH SHOULD CUTOFF OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY AND WITH THE BROAD AND DEEP LIFT PRESENTED WITH THE STACKED
LOW SYSTEM...THUNDER MAY ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS THE REGION WILL BE COOL AND NOT SEE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF HEATING.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 60S
TODAY AND THEN REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR WED AND THURS. NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR 50 TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR THE
NEXT FEW NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN
HANDLING THE UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES TO TAKE IT
OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY. SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER DURG THE DAY AND A
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH REMNANTS OF SFC FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD H5 TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL SHEAR OUT
TO THE E TODAY. AREA OF MVFR CIGS HAS NOSED INTO THE WRN TAFS FROM
INDIANA THIS MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING WILL SLOWLY MIX THE CIGS UP
TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR THEM TO
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY. FEEL THAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER.

WEAK SFC RIDGING DEVELOPS THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS
TO SCATTER OUT FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHARP H5 TROF ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF A CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO CVG DURING THE 30 HOUR TAF
WINDOW.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES


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