Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 290524

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
124 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
evening as a weak cold front pushes through the area. A drier
airmass will settle into the region heading into Monday before
some lower chances of precipitation return through mid week.


Mid level s/w to pivot through the the srn Great Lakes tonight
as low develops over the western Great Lakes. ILN/s FA was in
the warm sector today with 00Z sounding showing marginal
instby with CAPE only around 600 j/kg. The sounding also shows
convective inhibition which kept ILN/s FA dry through the

Scattered thunderstorms developed along and ahead of weak sfc
cold front approaching from the west.

These storms are weakening as they push into western Ohio into
a less favorable thermodynamic environment. Expect these storms
to track east across the FA through about midnight with the
passage of the front. With lack of favorable instability the
severe threat is very marginal and continues to diminish as the
storms push east.

Drier air will then work in overnight, leading to decreasing
clouds from northwest to southeast in the wake of the front.
Expect lows from the upper 50s west to the lower 60s east.


The drier airmass will continue to settle into the region
through the morning hours on Monday. Some energy rotating around
an upper level low centered over the northern Great Lakes will
push down toward our area later Monday afternoon into Monday
night. This will help push an associated weakening surface
trough down into northern portions of our area. Forcing and
instability appears to be fairly weak so will just hang on to
some slight chance pops across the area for mainly Monday
night. Seasonable temperatures are expected on Monday with
highs in the mid to upper 70s.


A few showers and thunderstorms may develop Tuesday in the vicinity
of a weak cold front, affecting mainly eastern counties. A similar
scenario is indicated for Wednesday near the stalled boundary, with
thunderstorm chances enhanced by increased short wave energy
rounding the base of a broad upper trough. High pressure and dry
weather to start Thursday will decay rather quickly as another
frontal boundary forms across the Great Lakes, allowing for a chance
of showers and thunderstorms to return by Thursday night.
Thunderstorms will affect mainly northern locations to start, with
convection chances spreading south and persisting Friday through
Sunday as the front meanders over the region.

Temperatures are likely to be near normal through the period, with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to around 60.


Chances for thunderstorms are ending at the TAF sites, perhaps
just to persist for another hour or so at Columbus. While a few
light showers are located upstream over Indiana, these are most
likely to dissipate, and very unlikely to hit one of the
airports. Aside from a few MVFR ceilings in the next couple
hours, VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the TAF
period, with clearing skies.

Late this afternoon, there will be an increase in mid level
clouds from the north, reaching the northern TAF sites by late
in the forecast period. There may be a chance for a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms, but confidence is too low to
include in the TAFs as of now. A VCSH will be used at TDAY.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible on Friday.




LONG TERM...Coniglio
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