Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KILN 290533
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1233 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
29.00Z KILN SOUNDING FEATURED STRONG WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE IN COMPARISON TO THE 28.12Z SOUNDING. THE
BULK OF THE WAA WAS CENTERED BETWEEN 800MB-500MB ON
MODERATE/STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. STRONGLY VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW
ALSO PRESENT WITH ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM SFC TO 700MB. WITH BKN-OVC
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO SPILL OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING TEMPS HAD REMAINED STEADY OR ONLY DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO.
A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE EVEN SEEN RISING TEMPS IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNSET. MAINTAINED THE STEADY TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
/925MB/ WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WARMING FROM -3C TO +3C BY SUNRISE.
KEPT CLOUD COVER PRETTY HIGH THROUGH THE NIGHT ALSO THERE SHOULD
BE SOME SLOW EROSION AS BULK OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE PULLS
EAST/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE JET WEAKENS SOME ON SUNDAY BUT THE AXIS
REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING GOOD WARM AND
MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT.

MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER. IN ADDITION...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE
DAY. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THIS WILL BE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT SHIFT NORTHWARD. CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL INCREASE WITH TIME. IT IS RECOGNIZED
THAT THIS COULD BE A TRACE EVENT FOR MANY PLACES. SO HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY
AND THE INCREASED LIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BUMP UP THE CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE RAIN FURTHER BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A MORE
COHERENT BAND OF RAIN SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY SO POPS REMAIN
HIGHEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST HIGHS FOR SATURDAY HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE MOS
CONSENSUS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY FALL IN READINGS SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE QUITE MILD ON SUNDAY. BUT A SHARP COOL DOWN
WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES QUITE A
BIT COOLER BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  DUE
TO THIS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY.  PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY.  SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NW TO SE
AND THEREFORE EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF
THE FA MONDAY NIGHT.  HAVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE MIDDLE 20S ACROSS SE PORTIONS
OF THE REGION.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY
HOWEVER A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
AREA.  A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.  WITH
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY DO NOT EXPECT A LARGE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR THE LATER PARTS OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.  AS WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THE ECMWF SOLUTION.  THIS
SOLUTION HAS PRECIPITATION EXITING THE AREA BY THE EVENING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN BUILD INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH WITH THE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SYSTEM THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AS
WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS OF OVER 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

AS MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
OCCUR...AND THIS MAY BEGIN AS DRIZZLE. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.

MOISTURE WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE GOING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO IFR CEILINGS AND CONTINUED PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.