Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 300002
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
802 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will remain across the region through
much of the weekend, leading to chances for showers and
thunderstorms at times. High pressure and a drier airmass will
build into the Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Weak frontal boundary stretching from southern IL to northern OH
continues to trigger scattered convection across the region this
afternoon. Once again this afternoon conditions are favorable for a
few brief needle-like funnel clouds to develop: stationary
boundary, very weak wind shear and low level winds, steep low-
level lapse rates, and rich low-level moisture. Have this
mentioned in HWO but will consider an SPS if we start
seeing/receiving funnel reports. MLCAPEs are around 1000 J/kg, but
mid-level lapse rates are providing some limit to storm strength
this afternoon. Would not rule out a stronger storm with gusty
winds through early evening, but overall severe threat will be
limited. With rather weak upper flow and a rich supply of low-
level moisture (PWATs around 1.7"), storms have been slow-moving
and producing heavy rainfall. This will lead to a continued
localized flooding threat through this evening, when storms are
expected to diminish in coverage.

Held on to a chance/slight chance of showers and storms
overnight as some shortwave energy pushes through the region.
There will be a chance for fog and low stratus development once
again later tonight with lows ranging from the mid 60s north to
upper 60s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
With the boundary still lingering over the region this weekend and
a broad upper trough moving in, expect a few rounds of scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Most of this will be diurnally driven,
and Saturday looks like the wetter and cloudier of the two days
with better mid-level forcing. Weak mid-level lapse rates will
again provide some limit to storm intensity. By Sunday night the
upper trough axis will begin pushing east, and drier air will
begin filtering into the region. Highs both Saturday and Sunday
will be in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Period begins with a weak H5 trof over the Great Lakes. In the
localized nw flow, the models are dropping weak s/w into the region.
The models are handling these weak disturbances differently and
therefore are producing a variety of solution. The GEM hemispheric is
the most aggressive as it drops a MCS thru IN and KY nicking the
Tri-State region with pcpn. The GFS and to a less extent the 12Z
ECMWF pop a little QPF along the Ohio River. The 00Z ECMWF was dry.
Confidence is too low that the models have a handle on the
situation so will continue to carry a 10 PoP in the south and less
to across the nrn counties, therefore going dry. It looks like highs
will be in the lower and mid 80s.

H5 ridge builds in Monday night and Tuesday, which should keep the
fa dry and mostly sunny. Temps will warm a couple of degrees with
highs on Tuesday, into the mid and upper 80s.

ECMWF continues to be the outlier, as it drops an MCS out of MN and
down towards the fa Tuesday night, then bringing it across the fa
Wednesday. The ECMWF has showing this for a couple of runs now. Will
go with a 20 PoP to show the possibility. Hopefully future runs will
bring the models into better agreement. Kept highs on Wednesday in
the mid to upper 80s.

Thursday looks like another dry day, then a cdfnt will start to drop
towards the area for Friday. An increasingly unstable atmosphere
with interact with the forcing from the front to bring a chance of
thunderstorms on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
More widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will continue for
the next 2-3 hours and affect Cincy/Lunken airports. Showers over
Dayton and Wilmington will be on the decrease through this time,
and another weak shower may affect Columbus/Rickenbacker before
all of these storms dissipate with the waning daylight.

As skies clear tonight, VFR cigs and vsbys will then see some fog
develop overnight and a few areas may drop down to LIFR vsbys
under a mile, possibly some low cigs from stratus that develops
off of the deck.

Skies will generally be partly cloudy on Saturday but the models
are still showing scattered activity occurring with a nod towards
the afternoon during daytime heating. The convective models are
drawing a dry forecast for most of the CWA and TAF sites tomorrow
which is what is in the forecast outside of CVG/LUK where a
vicinity shower was put in the early part of the afternoon given
the synoptic models were more generous with rainfall there at this
time.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kurz
NEAR TERM...Kurz
SHORT TERM...Kurz
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...Franks



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