Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 261055
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
655 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the southeast United States will result in
continued southwesterly flow across the upper Ohio Valley through
the holiday weekend. This will lead to seasonably warm
temperatures and the chance for a few showers or thunderstorms at
times into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
We are starting to see some spotty showers beginning to develop
across primarily southern portions of our area early this
morning. In continued southwesterly low level flow/WAA, it will be
tough to rule out a few showers anywhere across our area through
this morning, but the best chance appears to be across our south
where the models are showing a little better isentropic lift and
some lower pdefs. The models are also suggesting the possibility
of some lower cloud development through daybreak with this
possibly lingering through late morning into early afternoon. If
this occurs, temperatures may be a little tricky today, but will
bank on the combination of enough sun later today and the
southwesterly flow to help push temperatures into the lower to
mid 80s again this afternoon. This will lead to destabilization
through the afternoon hours but we are again lacking much in the
way of forcing. As a result, will generally just allow for a
slight chance of thunderstorms across the area later this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
We will remain in a fairly similar pattern heading into the
weekend with our area on the back side of the ridge in place
across the southeastern United States. This will keep us in
continued southwesterly flow, leading to seasonably warm
temperatures through the short term period. It looks like the
ridge may actually build back northwest toward our area through
the day on Friday. This should again help limit pcpn chances so
will just hang on to a token 20 pop Friday into Friday night. Some
weak short wave energy will lift north across the area on
Saturday so will bump pops up a bit into lower chance category
through the afternoon. Expect highs on Friday in the mid to
possibly upper 80s with highs on Saturday mainly in the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The presence of the continued troughing/negative anomalies in the
cntl US will keep a weak swly mid layer flow directed into the
Great Lakes...thus convectively produced/enhanced perturbations
will be a constant threat to evolve east out of plains convective
systems. These will inherently run into a height/flow pattern on
the nwrn side of the developing sern CONUS trough that will not be
conducive to organized/strong lift...and ridging over the
Appalachians/Great Lakes will be reinforced. End result - there/s
a lack of surface boundaries and/or appreciable stronger s/w
troughs moving through the flow to produce more enhanced/higher
predictability periods of vertical motion. Thus...precipitation
chances will be driven in a very weakly forced manner under
marginal flows and instabilities. Thus...there is no choice but to
run 20-40% chances of showers/storms each day with the notion that
many hours will be dry...and many locations could go several days
without seeing rain. A true summertime pattern. It would seem that
weak height falls centered later Sunday into Monday with the
passage of a very subtle low-level boundary may afford the
opportunity to introduce higher rain chances in coming
forecasts...but forcing is so weak and soundings unimpressive
enough from a shear/instby perspective that it gets tough to
justify it.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An MVFR cloud deck has developed across Indiana and is spreading
into Ohio. Extent of this MVFR deck isn`t as widespread as
earlier (and current) model runs had suggested, but still expect
at least a period of MVFR cigs this morning, especially over
KDAY/KILN/KCVG/KLUK. Expect ceilings to lift towards early
afternoon as daytime heating and mixing takes hold. With a moist
airmass, daytime instability, and little in the way of forcing
(aside from a mid-level disturbance this morning), cannot rule out
some pop up spotty showers/thunderstorms today. Due to low
predictability, however, have left rain out of most of the TAFs
with the exception of KCVG/KLUK. A few hi-res model solutions show
the complex of storms currently over western IL later diving
southeast towards the Cincinnati area by early afternoon. While
there is low confidence in whether they will hold together to
affect the Cincinnati terminals, decided to go VCTS for a few
hours there. Quiet conditions expected Thursday night with
lingering cirrus. Winds will remain out of the SSW through the TAF
period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday through Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Binau
AVIATION...Kurz


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