Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 190549
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
149 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow showers will taper off this evening with decreasing clouds
overnight. Dry and breezy conditions are expected on Tuesday
along with more seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Mid level trof has pivoted southeast thru the region this
afternoon leaving a northwesterly flow. Favorable low level
flow off Lake Michigan and steep low level lapse rates led to
widespread snow showers this afternoon. With the loss of
daytime heating and low level flow backing - the snow shower
activity has shown a decreasing trends. A few lingering snow
showers or flurries will come to end by midnight.

Latest satellite imagery shows holes developing in the extensive
cloud cover. This trend will continue with clearing working in
from the northwest as skies clear overnight. Gusty northwest
winds will diminish to 10 mph or less and back west and then
southwest overnight.

It will be a cold night with overnight lows in the low to mid
20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
Some mid level energy will move across the region through the
day on Tuesday in progressive northwest flow aloft. This will
help push a cold front southeast into our area through Tuesday
night. Ahead of this, a tightening pressure gradient will lead
to increasing southwest winds. With good mixing, some wind
gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range will be possible from late
morning and into the afternoon Tuesday. This will lead to some
decent drying through the day with RHs dropping down into the
low to mid 20s through the afternoon. This could lead to some
increased fire concerns during the day on Tuesday. Highs on
Tuesday will be in the low to mid 50s with lows Tuesday night
in the low to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Longwave trough over eastern North America persists Wednesday into
Thursday. This will help to maintain cooler air over the region.
Breezy conditions are forecast on Wednesday behind a dry cold front
that passes through the area Tuesday night. Even cooler air arrives
Wednesday night into the Thursday as surface high pressure builds
over the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley. Can`t rule out a few
areas reaching the upper teens Wednesday night.

Mid-level flow becomes more zonal Thursday night into Friday as the
longwave trough ejects northeastward for a brief period. This will
allow for a closed low moving through the southeast CONUS to move
northeastward into the Ohio Valley. In combination with a shortwave
moving through the northern Plains, precipitation will spread over
the area Friday morning through the day. Given the cooler air in
place, can`t rule out some mixed precipitation across far northern
locations during the onset of precipitation. Otherwise, warm air
advection in the lower levels will help melt any snow/ice pellets
before reaching the ground.

The longwave trough fails to become firmly established over the
weekend so temperatures are currently forecast to be near normal. A
more significant change in the longwave pattern is possible next
week with general troughing over the western CONUS and ridging over
the eastern CONUS. This would support additional chances for rain
and warmer conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Another quick-moving front will approach the Ohio Valley today
and tonight. Southwesterly gradient will increase during the
midday through late afternoon hours. Relatively dry low levels
of the atmosphere will allow for efficient mixing and gusts
reaching 30-35 knots at times.

Loss of heating after sunset will allow gusts to drop off
rapidly, leaving around 10 knots of wind slowly shifting from
southwest to northwest to close out the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...


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