Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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705
FXUS61 KILN 121804
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
104 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty west northwest winds moving across the Great Lakes will
bring snow showers to the region today into this evening. An
area of low pressure will track across the area Wednesday into
Wednesday night. High pressure will build in Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Convective elements in the lake-enhanced bands feeding off of
Lake Michigan and nosing from nw of Dayton seward to Wilmington
will continue to create hazardous weather this afternoon. The
band will become more wnw-ese oriented later this afternoon as
it curves into central Ohio. Temperatures have likely hit their
maxima today as gusty northwest winds will keep a steady or slow
drop in readings over the region for the rest of the day.

While visbilities in the snow will drop to near zero at times,
lower dewpoints, strong winds, and the transient nature of the
strongest showers will limit any accumulations to a half inch or
less. Even if an area sits under a band of showers for an hour
or two and gets an accumulation of an inch, the conditions that
follow will cut this significantly, and surface temperatures on
area roadways will limit it even further, at least initially
this early afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The snow band off of Lake Michigan will be weakening through the
evening as winds back and gradually diminish. Clouds will erode
from the southwest, although any clearing in far northern
counties will likely be short-lived as clouds ahead of the next
system will already be encroaching by daybreak Wednesday.

The next system in northwest flow will approach on Wednesday.
Precipitation will break out ahead of low pressure that will be
just northwest of the forecast area by the end of the day.
Better chance of precipitation will be across the northern
counties in the afternoon with the possibility of up to an inch
of accumulation north of I-70 during the daylight hours.

Forecast temperatures are slightly below guidance. Even with
decreasing winds Tuesday night, wind chill will be in the single
digits area wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An area of low pressure will move across northern portions of the
region north of Interstate 70 Wednesday night. Although there are
precipitation chances across the entire forecast area Wednesday
night the best chance for precipitation will be across northern and
eastern portions of the region.  Precipitation will generally be in
the form of snow, however along and south of the Ohio River some
rain will also be possible.  1 to 2 inches of snow will be possible
across northern portions of the forecast area Wednesday night.  As
the feature moves to the east Wednesday night strong CAA will allow
for temperatures to drop into the teens to the mid 20s. Wind gusts
will be 30 to 35 mph at times with isolated gusts upwards of 40 mph
possible. Precipitation will taper off Thursday morning and wind
gusts will begin to subside.

Although surface high pressure will allow for dry conditions for
most of the day on Thursday,  with CAA there will be plenty of cloud
cover across the region for Thursday.

A weak system will move through Friday which will bring the chance
for light snow showers to the region.  There are some model
variations with how much moisture is going to be with this system.
Went closer to the drier ECMWF for this event.  Precipitation will
taper off Friday night and dry conditions will return for Saturday.
With WAA temperatures are expected to climb on Saturday to the
middle 30s to middle 40s.

Another system will bring precipitation up into the region Sunday
into Monday.  A mix of rain and snow is expected with that system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Snow showers along a band will affect DAY and ILN early this
afternoon and skirt CVG and LUK. CVG and LUK will have any
weather (including potential for MFVR cigs) end in the next
hour or so. As the afternoon progresses, the band should pivot
northeastward and become more wnw-ese oriented as it affects
central Ohio and CMH and LCK later this afternoon and into the
early evening hours.

MVFR to a few minutes of IFR vsbys will be found in these
showers but the prevailing vsbys should remain MVFR or higher
if time is considered. Showers should be transient in nature and
may not affect TAF sites for more than 1/2 hour at a shot.

At CVG/LUK and later at DAY and ILN skies should clear. Coarse
resolution models are painting cigs over the region but this is
due to the increased RH and lift. Higher res models are showing
that these features are due to the snow and do not extend beyond
the convective elements and downstream lake enhanced bands.

Next shot of snow and lowering but still VFR cigs may occur
over central Ohio towards the end of the valid 24 hour TAF
period, possibly DAY as well. Bulk of adverse weather will be
beyond the 18-24z time frame and valid TAF window.

Winds will subside in the evening.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities along with wind gusts
to 25 kt possible Wednesday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Franks



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