Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 160456
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1256 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAJORITY OF SHOWERS HAVE EVOLVED IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
TO BECOME SCATTERED IN NATURE. THERE IS A LARGE SWATH OF DRIZZLE
BEHIND IT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA AND END NW-SE LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TEMPS AND OTHER FCST PARAMETERS WERE GENERALLY UNCHANGED OTHER
THAN BLENDING CURRENT TREND TO THE FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUESDAY MORNING SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SKIES GRADUALLY BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED DRY AIRMASS AND DOWNWARD
MOTION WILL RESULT IN PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR AND RATHER COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S WILL BE BUMPED UP A
COUPLE DEGREES TOWARD 70 ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE PRIMARILY IN
THE 40S...WITH SOME 50S SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES AND MEAN TROF OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AT MID
WEEK. THIS PLACES THE OHIO VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT. BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN
ORIGIN TO BUILD SE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
DRY AND COOL WEATHER TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN FROM
THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TRACKING INTO NEW ENGLAND. A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF RE-TREATING SFC HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY FROM THE
LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL US. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ON
SATURDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH.

PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO TRANSLATE EAST WITH ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. WILL INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHWEST AND ACRS THE
ENTIRE FA SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. AS
IT RIPPLES BY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF TO
A LOW CHANCE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME SATURATED
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS. DESPITE A NORTH WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS...SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY...LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO MOST OF THE MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING
IN CLEARING SKIES.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN






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