Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 262359

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
759 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

A weak cold front will push east across the area tonight and early
Monday. An upper level trough will cross the Great Lakes on Tuesday
and could spark a shower with the cold air being funnelled into the
region. High pressure will then settle over the Upper Midwest and
bring in drier and cooler air through mid week.


Apparent temperatures (heat indicies) pushing into the upper 90s
over much of the region will drop off sharply after sunset. Will
not re-issue the statement regarding this warm and humid airmass
as a cold front crossing tonight will limit any negative effects
to the remainder of the afternoon and evening.

Showers and thunderstorms will fire in the moist and slightly
unstable airmass ahead of the cold front this evening with
discrete cells that are generally of a pop-up nature.

As the front gets closer, more cells will congeal along a line in
northern Indiana and sweep into northwest Ohio this evening, and
then cross into the CWA towards midnight. Storms working into the
region should have enough instability and moisture to produce
damaging downburst winds after an initial outlay. Expect any
storms that produce a cold pool downstream to be significantly
limited in their ability to become severe as the amount of shear
needed for longer-lived storms is not present outside of northwest
Ohio. Instability will also decrease overnight, limiting the
potential threat for strong storms to the northwest half of CWA
and primarily this evening.


Somewhat drier and cooler air on northwest flow will be found
behind the frontal passage Monday. While some dewpoints along and
south of the Ohio River will remain in the upper 60s and lower 70s
during the day, they should drop off to the mid 60s overnight,
and be the lower limit of overnight low temperatures.

Dewpoints will drop off later Tuesday as an upper level trough
crosses the northern Ohio Valley. The colder air behind it
necessitated the inclusion of a possible shower in the afternoon.
Cloud cover and cooler air with these potential showers will hold
max temps to within a few degrees of 80. Any showers will
probably be more like passing sprinkles and should not
significantly affect any activities in the region.

The true cold and drier push of air comes in behind the upper
trough Tuesday evening. Dewpoints in the 50s will let overnight
lows drop into the 50s.

The shower and thunderstorm chance will then persist
across our southern and southeast areas into monday until the
front pushes south of the area through the afternoon. Highs on
Monday will be a bit cooler with highs in the mid to upper 80s.


Period begins with high pressure centered over Illinois. The high
will provide dry weather and below normal temperatures on
Wednesday as highs will only make the upper 70s.

The high will work east up the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into
Thursday, keeping the region dry, but a little warmer as highs push
into the lower 80s.

Extended models have sped up the cdfnt for the end of the week.
Yesterday they had it reaching the fa on Saturday. Now both the 12Z
GFS and ECMWF bring it and an area of QPF through the fa on Friday.
Added chance PoPs of showers and thunderstorms for Friday. GFS and
ECMWF agree in placing the front around the Ohio River by 12Z. Srn
sections will have a chance of convection for Saturday. By Sunday
another high will bring drier conditions. High temperatures over
the weekend will remain in the lower 80s.


Convection moving into the region at the beginning of the period
will likely impact areas from KDAY to KCMH/KLCK. It is less
certain further south whether storms will affect terminals or
weaken before doing so. Thus kept a period of VCTS at those
locations. After storms end there will be a several hour lag
before a wind shift moves through. Visibilities will likely drop
at KLUK in mist/fog. Not completely out of the question that could
briefly happen elsewhere, although too low to include in the TAFs.
Drier air will work in after 12z with only mid to high clouds
which will clear late in the period.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.




NEAR TERM...Franks
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