Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 281345

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
945 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

An exiting surface high pressure system will see southerly winds
set up over the Ohio Valley, bringing an increase in both
temperature and moisture for the latter part of the week. A cold
front will push east through the region early Saturday, with
some pre-frontal storms affecting the region Friday night. High
pressure will then build in behind it for the new week.


High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region
today. Went warmer than consshort for temperatures today and
went closer to guidance for high temperatures. Some cu will
develop for the afternoon hours.


High clouds will continue to increase from the nw tonight from
upstream convection that is not forecast to reach any part of
the CWA until Thursday. Even this scenario appears less likely
with the exception of the northwest, given a strong warming
trend in the lower levels inhibiting any convective initiation.
Storms that skirt far northern CWA on Thursday will be peeled
off from convective elements further nw.

The proximity of storms north of the area will keep some chance
of thunderstorms north of the I-70 corridor through Thursday and
overnight into Friday. Friday will see more upper level
shortwaves getting closer to the CWA and less large-scale
heating in the lower atmosphere. Convection will have an
increased threat for hitting just about any of the CWA during
the afternoon Friday, in advance of the cold front that will
cross early Saturday. Friday night will have the highest
propensity of storms in the region given the proximity of the
cold front, increased moisture, and upper level support with
shortwave energy lifting nne ahead of the longwave trough.

Overnight lows in the mid 60s tonight will warm to around 70
Thurs and Fri night in the warm sector. Highs in the low to mid
80s will prevail for Thurs and Fri with generally cloudy
conditions to the north and slightly more sun infiltrating to
the south and east.


Timing of the frontal passage remains in question on Saturday,
but the earlier solution is favored with a quicker ending of any
thunderstorm activity, even in current forecast. Pops lasting
into the afternoon was more of a hedge towards the GFS solution,
with the l/w trough still found west of the region behind the
surface front.

Temperatures Saturday onward were close to climo on both highs
and lows, and the next threat for thunderstorms was muddled but
increased on Tuesday with the approach of a system ejecting ne
into the Ohio Valley from the Midwest.


Large cirrus shield out over the nrn Plains associated with
convection is beginning to drift into wrn portions of the tafs.
The models bring bkn cigs across nrn OH and maybe into the nrn
tafs later this morning.

Meanwhile river valley fog that developed this morning should
burn off quickly in the first hour of the taf period.

Winds today pick up to 8 to 10 knots as the surface high moves
east. There could be some gusts into the upper teens. Gusts
should die off around 00Z leaving light southerly winds. A 35-40
H8 jet works into the region around 06Z tonight, providing the
chance of some LLWS. Only scattered cirrus is expected tonight
as better upper level flow remain north of the region.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times from Thursday through




LONG TERM...Franks/Novak
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