Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 120939
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
439 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. THERE IS LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THIS
SYSTEM AND SOME OF THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT VERY HIGH.
THUS POPS REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE IN
THE DAY. AS IT DOES SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
AREA. IN ADDITION TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WINDS AND SOME GUSTS.

MOS LOOKED LIKE IT HAD A REASONABLE HANDLE ON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE. APPEARS THAT THE MOST ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO...WHICH MAY
BRUSH BY SOME OF THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE ACTIVITY TO BE MORE SQUALL LIKE ALONG THE
FRONT.

EXPECT A STREAMER TO DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SOME OF
THAT ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS MAY END UP
BEING FLURRIES MORE THAN SNOW SHOWERS BY THE TIME IS GETS THIS FAR
SOUTHEAST. THIS PLUME OFF OF THE THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT...
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE WINDS BACK ON
SATURDAY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL END SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME
DIMINISHING IN SPEED LATER IN THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THAT WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH IN COMBINATION WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO RESULT IN WIND
CHILL FALLING BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE A RATHER LIMITED RISE IN AIR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. SO
WIND CHILL READINGS WILL GET NO HIGHER THAN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
THEN FALL BACK BELOW ZERO SATURDAY EVENING UNTIL WIND BECOMES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS. SOME
AREAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE -10 THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORY. BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

THE HIGH MOVES OFF EARLY SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFTS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL MID WEEK AND THEN
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. BUT UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS MAKE FORECAST MORE
CHALLENGING.

AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT WARM FRONTAL SNOW WILL MOVE OFF EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WITH A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY. BUT A LARGE SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL TRACK FORM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND
WEST PRECIPITATION SPREADS AND ALSO IN THERMAL FIELDS. A BLEND
SEEMED TO FIT THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND APPEARED TO BE A PRUDENT
APPROACH TO THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PASS OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. A SECONDARY
SYSTEM COMING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT HOWEVER EXPECT THEM TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES FRIDAY MORNING HOWEVER SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES KCVG AND KLUK. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT.
CIGS WILL LOWER AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP WITH WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 KNOTS AT TIMES FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. VSBYS
WILL BE REDUCED WITH SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK


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