Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 241945

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
245 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

Surface high pressure located off to our east has allowed southerly
winds to return to the area this afternoon. A weak cold front will
move through the Ohio Valley Saturday morning offering only a slight
chance of a shower. High pressure will build in behind the front,
persisting into the middle of the work week, offering continued dry


Temperatures have quickly warmed today thanks to a warm southwest
flow. Tonight, clouds will be on the increase as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. The cold front will just be entering
our northwestern zones by the end of the near term. The chance of
rain with this system will be slim. The greatest possibility for the
chance of rain with the front will be across our northeastern zones,
but even here chances will be severely limited thanks dry low level
air and a lack of upper level support (PVA and weak upper level jet
streak are out of phase).


The surface cold front will clear the forecast area later Saturday
morning with cooler air slowly working into the area. The heart of
the cold 850 MB air will push into the region Saturday afternoon
into evening. Most of the forecast area will also be cloudy Saturday
afternoon thanks to the mid level disturbance diving southeast out
of Michigan. The clouds working with falling 850 mb temperatures
will likely mean that high temperatures will occur slightly earlier
than the normal diurnal max and then hold steady/ slightly fall (esp
towards the northwest). Due to this have gone ahead and kept with a
non-diurnal trace for Saturday. Saturday night into Sunday
morning surface high pressure will build into the region from
the northwest.


Northwest flow at the beginning of the period will become zonal
early next week. A northern stream short wave will pass north of the
region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Cold front associated with this
system will approach the northwest counties and then lay out east-
west somewhere near the northern part of the area before lifting
back north. With minimal forcing and lift, it appears that dry
conditions will continue. There will be a warming trend early in the
week with temperatures being quite mild south of the front Tuesday
and Wednesday.

12Z models are in relatively good agreement with the next system. A
closed low emerging into the Plains mid week will be progressive as
another trough comes on to the west coast. The system will be
deamplifying as it crosses the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into
Thursday but still bring a chance of showers. High pressure will
build in Friday with temperatures falling back to or a bit below


Surface high pressure has pulled east this afternoon with
southerly flow increasing on the western side. Besides some
cirrus moving in from the west TAF sites will remain VFR through
this evening.

A weak cold front will move through the area Saturday morning
with most of the models keeping the TAF sites dry. Both GFS and
NAM forecast soundings do not saturate the low levels which
implies very low confidence in precipitation coverage. Just
ahead of the front low level winds will be on the increase
thanks to the tightening gradient. Low level 0-2 kft bulk shear
on the NAM maxes out around 45 kts and due to this have kept
the mention of llws in the TAFs.

Behind the front a potent mid-level disturbance will dive
southeast with low level moisture quickly pushing in. GFS and
NAM forecast soundings show MVFR cigs moving in between 14 and
17z across the TAF sites with KCVG/ KLUK being on the fringe of
the MVFR deck. Latest suite of the high res models has KCVG/
KLUK mostly lying just southwest of the MVFR deck, but have
included the mention due to low level flow.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.




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