Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 241318
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
918 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TODAY
AHEAD OF TROF MOVING INTO THE MID MS VLY BY EVENING. WEAK LIFT
INTO DRY AIRMASS WAS RESULTING IN MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS. HAVE
DROPPED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH THESE CLOUDS
THINNING THIS AFTN. TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TO HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. THESE TEMPS COMBINED
WITH DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN LOW RH VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT IN
THE EAST. 10 HOUR FUEL LOOKS TO BE AROUND 8 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT LESS THAN 15 MPH...SO HAVE HELD OFF RED FLAG
WARNING AND CONTINUED SPS HIGHLIGHTING THIS ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF WAS THE OUTLIER YESTERDAY
HOWEVER SINCE THAT TIME MODELS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE
ECMWF. SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE FA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLOWER TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION NOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE. DUE TO THIS THERE IS A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND THEREFORE
ADDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION INTO THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY WORKS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA ON SATURDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE FA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.  THE
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF A
DEEP UPPER LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
EARLY IN THE WEEK AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND MID WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. PIECES OF ENERGY ARE THEN FORECAST TO ADVECT EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA. IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF A SURFACE LOW STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA. DURING THIS
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF OUR
AREA...LEAVING OUR AREA IN THE COLD SECTOR. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF FORECAST TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AM FORECASTING A GRADUAL LOWERING OF
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL DURING THAT TIME. CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT HIGHS COULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THEREFORE NUDGED THE FORECAST DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY
TIME FRAME WILL BE WET...FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND POTENTIALLY
SHOWERY TIME PERIOD STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THESE WILL
THIN LEAVING PRIMARILY CIRRUS INTO THE EVENING. SHOWERS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR INITIALLY
WITH THE PRECIPITATION. BUT EVENTUALLY CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 KT WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LIKELY AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AS
WELL AS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LESS THAN
25 PERCENT...AND WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL LEAD TO
AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHLIGHTED THIS THREAT IN
THE HWO AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. RH VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...






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