507
FXUS64 KJAN 250659
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1259 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain remain possible
    through this afternoon.

  - Much cooler and drier air will surge into the area Wednesday and
    continue the remainder of Thanksgiving Week.

  - Heavy rainfall could become a concern by early next week for
    northwest portions of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Today through tonight...

Surface low and frontal system continues to swing eastward with the
strongest forcing remaining well off to the north into the Ozarks to
Mid MS to OH Valleys. Forcing from a secondary spoke of energy over
central TX, low level jet, and frontal convergence resulted in rain
and storm coverage into the morning hours. The severe thunderstorm
potential will continue through 8AM as a QLCS propagates from
southwest to northeast across the area. There could also be discrete
supercell development potential a touch earlier ahead of the forced
squall line, which could have all modes of severe weather possible
in these severe storms. The ongoing QLCS will be the main focus,
with the best severe potential persisting through 8AM to the
southeast. Increasing confidence of heavy rainfall, as training
convection has set up along and north of a line near Bastrop to
Grenada producing rainfall estimates between 2-4 inches so far. Some
areas could see an additional 1-3 inches, with locally higher
amounts, in a short duration through 7AM. No adjustments were made
to the hazard graphic for flash flooding. In addition, surface low
won`t be really deep but there will be some pressure gradient (4mb)
for some gusty gradient winds, at most around 25mph gusts or a touch
higher at times.

There will be a brief break in activity, before more veered flow but
frontal convergence could get some strong to isolated severe
activity going again. Strong mean southwesterly shear will set up
but remain mostly line-parallel. Strong moist advection will drive
dewpoints back up into the 64-68F degree range along and south of
Interstate 20. With strong southwesterly mean bulk shear, lapse
rates, favorable thermodynamics, severe threat and advertisement in
HWO of Slight/Marginal risk remains warranted. No adjustments were
made to today`s severe graphic as all modes of severe weather
remains possible. Timing still looks to be 9AM to 5PM, but ending as
early as 3PM in east MS.

Seasonably warm conditions continues with highs some 10F to 15F
above (72F to 82F) and low temps ranging from 45F in the Delta to 55
in the southeast. /DC/CR/

********No adjustments were made to the extended period********

Wednesday through next week Monday...

Rain chances will continue across our forecast area through around
daybreak Wednesday before a strong frontal passage brings a pattern
change. Quiet and seasonably cooler weather conditions, 5-8F below,
will occur across the southeast region late this week on
Thanksgiving into late week (Thursday into Friday) thanks to mean
northerly flow/subsidence, 1028-1032mb sfc high propagating
southeastward across the area, and PW less than half inch. Model
consensus from both the GFS and the Euro are still showing Wednesday
night through Thursday night being the coldest periods with
nighttime temperatures in the low to mid 30s. A couple of areas
along and east of i-20 could see overnight lows drop to below
freezing Thursday night, with a light frost/freeze possible by late
Thursday night/early Friday morning timeframe. Quiet conditions will
continue through Friday evening as the 1032 sfc high begins to
propagate eastward towards the Carolinas.

Looking ahead into the weekend, future guidance is still
highlighting quite an active weather pattern developing over much of
the central CONUS. A major longwave trough axis is forecasted to set
over the Rockies into the Plains while a strong ridge builds up over
the East Coast. This will help place our CWA in favorable deep
southwest flow aloft for multiple rounds of showers and storms. At
the moment, global models are still showing increasing potential for
heavy rainfall to develop, with greater potential over the ArkLaMiss
Delta region. Trends will continue to be monitored over the next
several days. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Local radars showed an area TSRA over the nw half of the area.
The TSRA will become widespread resulting in deteriorating
conditions from the remainder of the area through 14Z. Conditions
will gradually improve from the west Tuesday as the cold front
moves east of the area. VFR conditions are expected areawide by
23Z and VFR conditions will prevail through the end of the TAF
period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       77  50  61  36 /  60   0   0   0
Meridian      78  50  63  34 /  80  20   0   0
Vicksburg     76  49  60  36 /  40   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   82  55  69  37 /  70  30   0   0
Natchez       78  51  63  37 /  50   0   0   0
Greenville    71  47  55  36 /  20   0   0   0
Greenwood     74  47  56  34 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/CR/22