595
FXUS64 KJAN 150517 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1117 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Patchy to areas of dense fog possible tonight in Pine Belt
    (Interstate 59, Highway 84 to Highway 98 corridors).

  - Much above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions will
    be the rule through next Wednesday.

  - Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase late next week as
    a frontal boundary attempts to push into the ArkLaMiss region.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 954 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

HREF dense fog probs have increased somewhat in the Pine Belt and
Highway 84 to Interstate 59 corridors. Convective allowing model
guidance, including HRRR, RAP and time-lagged guidance and HREF
dense fog probs duration of several hours, probability of dense
fog is enough to warrant mention in local hazard graphic. These
areas remain in the corridor of best crossover temperatures in
excess of 3F to 5F degrees. In addition, added a Dense Fog
Advisory in the Highway 84 to 98 corridors, in the southern tier
of three counties (Marion, Lamar, Forrest) from 2AM to 9AM.
Updates are out. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

The forecast going through the middle of next week can best be
described as unusually warm and dry. The most prominent weather
feature affecting our region will be a warm longwave ridge that
will gradually shift from the Plains to the MS Valley. As this
happens, subsident anticyclonic flow will tend to deflect any
potential weather systems to our west and north. Surface
temperatures will be well above normal with departures of +10 to
+20 deg F each day.

Looking ahead to late next week, global model ensembles indicate
less variability among members as they converge on a solution
that would promise greater rain chances late next week. Forecast
confidence has increased for us getting significant rainfall
(e.g., > 1 inch) over northwest portions of the area in the Thu-
Fri time frame, when a stronger southern stream shortwave trough
is forecast to finally make a dent in the ridge. This pattern
could allow a frontal boundary to stall over the ArkLaMiss region
and help focus a fairly long duration of moisture transport and
lift into the upper Delta region in our forecast area. For
locations roughly along/southeast of the Natchez Trace parkway,
lighter rainfall amounts are indicated as a weakening and more
progressive front should push through.

Aside from the rainfall, this system could pose some concern for
a marginal severe weather risk, and we`ll be monitoring for that
as well. For now at least, AI/ML and analog guidance are bearish
with any severe weather probs, and there is no formal messaging
being considered for significant impacts. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR flight categories and light to variable winds, generally
under 10mph, will prevail through the TAF period, with any
concerns with IFR to LIFR vsby restrictions (due to BR or dense
FG) at HBG and PIB. Onset time just prior to daybreak around
15/11-12Z Saturday and lifting around 15/13Z. This is more likely
in low-lying river valleys and areas of crossover temperatures
greater than 3F, which is more in southeast TAF sites (temporarily
near MEI around daybreak while more likely at PIB and HBG). VFR
conditions are expected afterwards Saturday. There will be a
noticeable uptick in gusty southwesterly gradient winds after
15/14-16Z Saturday (sustained up to 15mph and gusts up to 20 to
25mph) and winding down around 15/23Z Saturday through 16/01Z
Sunday. /DC/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       54  79  57  80 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      51  79  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     56  79  58  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   53  81  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       54  79  57  81 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    58  79  59  78 /   0   0  10   0
Greenwood     56  79  59  78 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM CST Saturday for MSZ072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/EC/DC