423
FXUS62 KJAX 021751
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
151 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dangerous Beach & Marine Impacts through the Weekend. High Rip
  Current Risk, High Surf & Small Craft Advisory. Wind Gusts at
  the Coast of 30 to 40 mph Today through Saturday

- Extended Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding through the Weekend.
  Coastal Flood Advisory for St. Johns River Basin, Northeast FL &
  Southeast GA

- Rain Chances Increase Today through Weekend. Daily Rounds of
  Heavy Rain & Isolated Embedded Thunderstorms. Localized Flood
  Risk at Coast & Low-lying Locations

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Local Nor`easter conditions will continue to ramp up through
tonight as the coastal trough over the Atlantic waters sharpens up
and lifts northward. This will re-focus the shower and embedded
storm activity that is currently just across Flagler county and
expand it across the entire NE FL/SE GA coastline and I-95
corridor through tonight with windy conditions at the beachfront
locations along with the risk of heavy rainfall at times. Rainfall
amounts not excessive enough for a Flood Watch at this time, but
may need to be posted sometime on Friday or the weekend as better
guidance on where the convergent rain bands will set up. Sustained
NE winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph will continue for
the Atlantic Coastal counties through tonight, just below Wind
Advisory criteria, while lesser breezy type NE winds of 15-20G25
mph winds over inland areas this afternoon will fade to 10-15G20
mph over inland areas through tonight. Overnight lows will remain
fairly close to normal values in the middle 60s inland SE GA,
upper 60s inland NE FL and lower/middle 70s for Atlantic Coastal
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Increasing chances for showers and storms going into the weekend
as moist onshore flow from out of the Atlantic builds south of
high pressure to the north and burgeoning low pressure to the
south, resulting in conditions somewhat similar to a nor`easter
pattern with gusty northeasterly-easterly winds and a potential
for excessive rainfall capable of producing local flooding
conditions as PWAT values rise to be in excess of 2.2 inches. Wind
speeds during this period are anticipated to rise to be about
15-25 mph with gusts of 35 mph. High temperatures for the end of
the week and into the weekend will rise into the lower to mid 80s
with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the upper 60s
and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Showers and storms will become more widespread through the weekend
and into the beginning of next week with area-wide convection
building as the developing low pressure system moves across the
Florida peninsula and starts moving towards the northwest,
resulting in a more southerly prevailing flow over the forecast
area leading to a weaker onshore surface winds as the week
progresses with a corresponding reduction in convective
developments as drier air starts to advect into the region by
Wednesday. Temperatures will experience a slight warming trend
through the coming week with daytime high temperatures rising to
be near and slightly above the seasonal average by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Local Nor`easter conditions already spreading northward to the
remainder of the TAF sites with MVFR CIGS impacting all TAF sites
except for GNV this afternoon. NE winds have increased to 15-20
knots this afternoon with gusts to 25-30 knots that will continue
at the coastal TAF sites of SSI/SGJ through tonight, while
weakening NE winds at the inland TAF sites. More widespread light
rainfall spreading inland and will continue to post 6SM -SHRA in
most TAF sites through the period, except for the better chances
for MVFR VSBYS at SGJ/SSI for the 00-12Z time frame tonight. Will
continue to monitor rain bands for more short-fuse TEMPO groups
for lower VSBYS into the 1-3SM range, most likely at the coastal
TAF sites of SSI/CRG/SGJ. High confidence in MVFR CIG forecast,
just lower confidence in timing of MVFR or IFR vsbys in any heavy
rain bands at TAF locations. For now the TSRA chances remain too
low for any inclusion, but may be required at coastal TAF sites
sometime tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Small Craft Advisory conditions with strong northeasterly winds
and elevated seas will persist across the coastal waters through
the upcoming weekend and into next week, along with occasional
wind gusts to Gale Force. Coastal troughing will sharpen over our
local waters late this week, generating increasing chances for
showers and embedded thunderstorms. Winds will shift to easterly
by Friday and the weekend as high pressure shifts offshore of the
Carolinas.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents and high surf advisory
conditions, along with moderate to severe beach erosion will
continue at Atlantic beachfront locations through late this week
and through the upcoming weekend. Surf/breakers into the 7-10 ft
range will continue late this week through the upcoming weekend.
Moderate to severe beach erosion is expected at Atlantic
beachfront locations during times of high tide through the
upcoming weekend as high surf advisories remain in place.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Minor to locally Moderate tidal flooding will continue along the
St. Johns River from downtown JAX southward and along the NE FL
Atlantic inter-coastal areas of St. Johns/Flagler counties early
this afternoon, then will expand to the rest of the St. Johns
River and Atlantic Coastal areas from JAX northward through
Brunswick with the next high tide cycle this afternoon and evening
and have expanded the current Coastal Flood Advisory as peak water
levels remain generally in the 1.5 to 2.0 ft above MHHW range. The
continued NE surge of winds through the upcoming weekend will
continue to trap more water in the St. Johns River Basin and
combine with higher astronomical tides due to the full Moon by the
Friday afternoon and evening high tide cycle and expect water
levels to peak in the 2 to 2.5 ft range above MHHW in the St Johns
River Basin, and along the ICWW of the NE FL coast and have pushed
the Coastal Flood Watch to start in these locations for more
widespread Moderate coastal/tidal flooding, which will continue
through the entire weekend, while mainly Minor Coastal Flooding
will continue from Nassau County northward along the SE GA
coastline during times of high tide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  82  65  82 /  20   0   0  20
SSI  70  80  71  82 /  60  30  20  40
JAX  70  83  70  83 /  60  40  20  60
SGJ  72  83  72  82 /  70  50  40  60
GNV  68  85  69  84 /  30  30  20  50
OCF  69  83  71  83 /  20  30  10  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125-138-233-
     333.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ124.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for FLZ125-225.

     Coastal Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for FLZ125-132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for FLZ132-137-138-
     233-325-333-633.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for GAZ154-166.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$