129
FXUS62 KJAX 091211
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
711 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible Sunday Afternoon and
  Evening. Primary Hazards: Wind Gusts 40-60 mph, Small Hail and
  Frequent Lightning Strikes

- Small Craft Advisories Sunday Night through Tuesday Afternoon.
  Gale Warnings Possible on Monday Night

- Elevated Fire Danger Inland on Monday and Tuesday

- Wind Chill Values Fall to 20- 25 Late Monday Night & Early
  Tuesday Morning

- Freezes Likely at Inland Locations Early on Tuesday & Wednesday
  Mornings. Widespread Frost Likely Late Tuesday Night & Early
  Wednesday Morning

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Forecast remains on track with convection developing today in
advance of the frontal boundary. Minor adjustments to temps with
the update, otherwise no major updates at this time.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Overnight surface analysis depicts a stalling frontal boundary
positioned across the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas.
Meanwhile, low pressure (1006 millibars) was organizing over the
mid-Mississippi Valley along a strengthening cold front that
extends southwestward across the Ozarks through Deep South Texas.
Otherwise, arctic high pressure (1037 millibars) centered over the
Canadian Prairies was surging southward towards the Northern
Plains states. Aloft...a potent shortwave trough was pivoting
eastward across northern Illinois and Indiana, downstream of an
amplifying longwave trough digging southward from the western
Great Lakes and the Upper Midwest. Deep west-southwesterly flow
was in place locally downstream of this evolving trough across our
region. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery
indicates that our local air mass continues to gradually moisten,
with PWATs around or just below 1 inch for locations along and
north of the Interstate 10 corridor. Values of 1.25 - 1.5 inches
were noted for the rest of our local area, with deeper moisture
positioned along and south of the I-4 corridor in central FL. Deep
west-southwest flow and warm air advection has allowed low
stratus clouds to overspread most locations from Homerville to
Waycross to Jesup and points south and eastward overnight, with
fair skies otherwise in place across the rest of interior
southeast Georgia. A southwesterly breeze was keeping temperatures
and dewpoints well above seasonal averages overnight, with values
at 08Z ranging from the mid to upper 60s across southeast GA and
the Suwannee Valley to the lower 70s for north central and
portions of coastal northeast FL.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Low stratus clouds will likely overspread the rest of inland
southeast GA during the predawn hours, with lowering ceilings
likely creating locally dense fog towards sunrise for the Suwannee
Valley and inland portions of north central FL. Fog and low
stratus are expected to dissipate during the mid-morning hours
today as our local pressure gradient tightens downstream of a
strengthening cold front that will be entering the southeastern
states. Deeper moisture currently positioned along and south of
the I-4 corridor in the FL peninsula will gradually lift
northward, with isolated to widely scattered showers and possibly
a few thunderstorms developing along this moisture gradient early
this afternoon. A narrow ribbon of deeper moisture forced by the
surging cold front should arrive this afternoon across southeast
GA, where increasing bulk southwesterly shear values of 40-50
knots could develop isolated strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms. Strengthening shear values could pose a hail and
damaging wind threat (40-60 mph downbursts) for a few stronger
storms moving quickly northeastward across southeast GA later this
afternoon, along with briefly heavy downpours and frequent
lightning strikes. Bulk shear values will generally remain below
40 knots across northeast and north central FL, likely keeping
convection rather tame for locations south of I-10, with briefly
heavy downpours and sporadic lightning strikes possible within
stronger storms this afternoon. Breezy southwesterly winds
developing late this morning and early afternoon and breaks in the
multi-layered cloud cover will boost highs to the low and mid
80s, with these values likely falling just shy of daily records
for November 9th at our designated climate sites (see "Climate"
section below for details).

Convective coverage will likely decrease towards sunset, with a
thin line of low-topped showers expected to accompany the frontal
passage later this evening through the overnight hours. Our local
pressure gradient will continue to tighten as arctic high pressure
builds southeastward from the Plains states, with winds abruptly
shifting to northwesterly across inland southeast GA and the
Suwannee Valley just before midnight, with the wind shift quickly
progressing across the rest of our area around or just after
midnight. Isolated showers will exit north central FL overnight,
with skies clearing from northwest to southeast during the predawn
and early morning hours on Monday. Northwesterly winds will
increase to 15-20 mph and gusty overnight, driving lows down into
the 40s for most inland locations by sunrise, except lower 50s for
north central FL and portions of coastal northeast FL. Wind chill
values will plunge to the mid and upper 30s during the predawn and
early morning hours on Monday for locations north of I-10.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 323 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Monday, a potent shortwave trough will dive south to southeast
from the Great Lakes into the central and southern Appalachian
mountains, carving a deep longwave trough with well below normal
heights from the MS river valley to the east coast and into
northern FL and the coastal Southeast by the end of the day. A
strong surface high pressure center positioned over the northern
plains will sink south to southeast into the ArkLaTex region while
a strong cold front exits to the southeast, sweeping through
central and southern FL and into the northern Bahamas by day`s
end. A tight pressure gradient over the region between the strong
high to the northwest and the exiting cold front will bring breezy
northwest winds over the area 10-15 mph gusting to 30-35 mph.
Despite skies turning sunny by midday, cold air advection will
limit high temperatures to the low to mid 50s over SE GA and the
upper 50 to the low 60s.

Monday night, surface high pressure will settle west of the region
onto the western/central Gulf coast. Winds will remain elevated,
especially near the coast as the local pressure gradient tightens
in response to another surface trough pushing through our area
under the upper level low as the trough axis extends from the
eastern Great lakes southward into the GA/FL coastal waters. Strong
cold air advection and low heights (potentially a new daily record
minimum under 5600 m) will support unseasonably cold overnight low
temperatures in the mid/upper 20s over inland SE GA/Suwannee Valley
of NE FL, low 30s along the SE GA coast into the I-95 corridor of NE FL
with mid/upper 30s along the NE FL coast. Brisk northwest flow will
also produce very cold wind chills and a cold weather advisory will
become increasingly likely with this cold snap as feels like temps
fall below 25 degrees over inland NE FL and 15-25 degrees over SE GA.

Tuesday, the axis of the deep trough will shift east northeast off
the Mid Atlantic and New England coastline with broad ridging aloft
east of the MS river valley with a shortwave darting east across
the upper Midwest into the western Great Lakes. Brisk
northwesterly winds 10-15 mph and westerly flow aloft will
continue a pattern of cold air advection through the day with
highs well below normal in the mid to upper 50s across the area
(Nearly 15-20 degrees below normal) and these highs may approach
or exceed daily record low maximum values (see climate).

Tuesday Night, clear skies and near calm winds underneath strong
surface high pressure near 1028 mb will support strong radiational
cooling overnight into early Wednesday morning. Trends in most of
the guidance have suggested lows in the upper 20s to around 30 for
inland SE GA into inland NE FL along I-10 into the Suwannee river
and Santa Fe River Valleys while moderating to the low 30s from
north central FL and along US17 to along I-95 north of downtown
Jacksonville and  the upper 30s to low 40s along the coast. The
dewpoints will recover into the 20s compared to the teens from
Monday night and Tuesday with enough low level moisture providing
for a widespread frost event inland with patchy to areas of frost
along I-95 north of downtown and the Ocala National Forest while
staying generally frost free along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

The long term period will feature zonal flow aloft and gradually
increasing heights as ridging aloft strengthens over the central
US. Surface high pressure will sink south of area Wednesday into
Thursday with another dry cold front moving south of the area
late Thursday with weak high pressure briefly rebuilding north of
the region with northwest winds Friday turning more southerly
this weekend as the high shifts slowly into the western Atlantic
waters off the eastern seaboard. No rain is expected during the
period due to the influence of dry air masses.

Temperatures will begin below normal midweek with highs returning
to around normal by Thursday and lows trending to near normal by
Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Low status ceilings should gradually lift after 13Z, with MVFR
conditions expected by 16Z and then VFR conditions prevailing at
the regional terminals by 18Z. Showers and a few stronger
thunderstorms are expected to develop across southeast GA and the
Suwannee Valley on Sunday afternoon, with this activity
potentially approaching SSI after 20Z. Confidence was only high
enough to indicate vicinity shower coverage at the regional
terminals through the afternoon and early evening hours, with a
PROB30 group maintained at SSI for thunderstorms with briefly
gusty winds and MVFR visibilities through around 00Z. A majority
of the shower activity will likely occur in the 00Z-06Z time frame
at the northeast FL terminals. Surface winds will increase
shortly after the noon hour on Sunday, with sustained speeds of
10-15 knots expected after 17Z. Sky conditions will clear for
sites near the end of the forecast period with VFR conditions
establishing area-wide by around 08z-11z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Southwesterly winds through early this afternoon will shift to
southerly during the mid to late afternoon, with gradually
strengthening speeds expected early this evening ahead of a
strong cold front that will approaching our area. Showers and
possibly a few strong thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this
front during the afternoon and evening hours as winds shift to
southwesterly, likely reaching Caution levels of 15-20 knots after
sunset. This strong front will then cross our local waters during
the overnight hours tonight, with Small Craft Advisory conditions
overspreading our local waters as winds shift to northwesterly
while increasing to 20-25 knots towards midnight. Seas of 2-4 feet
both near shore and offshore today and early this evening will
build to Caution levels of 4-6 feet offshore after midnight, while
near shore seas build to 3-5 feet.

Strong high pressure building into the southeastern states on
Monday will result in Gale Force wind gusts on Monday night, when
Gale Warnings may be necessary for our local waters. Seas will
peak in the 6-11 foot range offshore on Monday night, while seas
for the near shore waters adjacent peak in the 5-8 foot range,
with 3-5 foot seas for the near shore waters adjacent to southeast
GA. High pressure will shift eastward and will become centered
directly over our local waters by midweek, allowing for winds and
seas to gradually diminish.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

West-southwesterly surface and transport winds will strengthen
after sunrise, becoming breezy early this afternoon. These breezy
transport winds will combine with elevated mixing heights to
create good daytime dispersion values today, with marginally high
values possible for inland locations along and north of I-10 this
afternoon. A much colder and drier air mass will then plunge into
our region tonight and Monday as surface and transport winds shift
to northwesterly, creating an Elevated Fire Danger for inland
locations on Monday. Fire Weather Watches may be needed for inland
southeast GA on Monday afternoon, where minimum relative humidity
values will plummet to near critical thresholds and sustained
surface winds remain in the 15-20 mph range and gusty. Good to
marginally high daytime dispersion values are forecast throughout
our region on Monday. Gusty northwesterly surface and transport
winds will likely create elevated nighttime dispersion values for
coastal locations on Monday night. Northwesterly surface and
transport winds will remain breezy on Tuesday morning before
diminishing during the mid to late afternoon hours. An
unseasonably dry air mass settling over our area will create
long durations of critically low humidity values at most inland
locations on Tuesday, with fair to good daytime dispersion values
forecast area-wide. This very dry air mass will persist across our
region on Wednesday as surface and transport winds shift to
westerly.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 323 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Record High Temperatures Today:

KJAX: 88/1986
KCRG: 85/2018
KGNV: 88/1986
KAMG: 87/1986

Record low maximum temperatures for Tuesday Nov 11th

KJAX: 53/1917
KCRG: 59/1996
KGNV: 55/1953
KAMG: 53/1968

Record low temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday:

November 11:
KJAX: 35/1977
KCRG: 37/1991
KGNV: 31/1943
KAMG: 27/1943

November 12:
KJAX: 31/2011
KCRG: 35/2011
KGNV: 30/2011
KAMG: 27/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  41  53  25 /  30  40   0   0
SSI  81  46  58  31 /  30  40   0   0
JAX  85  47  59  29 /  20  30   0   0
SGJ  83  51  62  34 /  30  10   0   0
GNV  84  49  60  29 /  20  20   0   0
OCF  83  51  61  30 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Tuesday
     for AMZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Tuesday
     for AMZ452-454.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EST Tuesday
     for AMZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EST Tuesday
     for AMZ472-474.

&&

$$