611
FXUS62 KKEY 071611
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1111 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Mainly light to gentle southeast breezes expected through the
 rest of the day.

-Moisture continues to increase resulting in slight chances today.
 Rain chances further increase going into Monday ahead of the next
 frontal passage.

-Humid conditions will persist today as dew points potentially
 reach the upper 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025
Another relatively quiet day is underway across the Florida Keys
on this first Sunday of December. After last night`s brief
sparking of thunderstorms in the outer Straits of Florida off a
Cuban land breeze, KBYX radar has been free of any heavy
convection with only a few shallow showers detected near the
island chain at this time. A few bands of fair weather
stratocumulus are drifting over the Keys, but GOES-19 visible
imagery notes mostly clear skies otherwise across our CWA. Similar
to yesterday, winds have perked up across our waters with Reef
observation stations recording light to gentle southeast to south
breezes. Warm and humid conditions prevail with temperatures in
the lower 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s.

This afternoon looks to be a repeat of yesterday. After this
morning`s brief wind surge, breezes will slacken a few knots but
remain light to gentle. Southwesterlies in the low levels of the
atmosphere will allow for another possible cloud line set up this
afternoon. Cloud line or not, slight rain chances will persist
today as this morning`s KKEY sounding shows a decent amount of
moisture in the levels below 800 mb. CIMSS MIMIC PW also notes a
good deal of higher PW values upstream of our southwesterly flow
aloft. We must remember that it is indeed not summer anymore, so
seeing that our instability levels are similar to that of
yesterday, any thunderstorm development (if at all) will likely
stay away from island chain and remain in the Straits of Florida.

Tonight, conditions start to change as the stationary front over
mainland Florida lumbers south towards our area. This will result
in surface breezes freshening and veering to the southwest to
west by Monday morning. With this wind shift comes increasing
rain and thunder chances that will become more pronounced as a
possible prefrontal line of convection associated with another
cold front sweeping through the Gulf approaches the Keys
tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025
Light to gentle southeast to south breezes will persist through
the morning and early afternoon. Thereafter, a combination of a
pre- frontal trough and approaching cold front move in from the
north, we will see winds box around the compass while gradually
freshening. Cold front passage is expected Monday evening and
overnight with a brief period of moderate to fresh northerly
breezes. Thereafter, the front will stall across the Florida Keys
and Straits of Florida, potentially leading to a more active and
unusual weather pattern for this time of year. There is a growing
potential for another cold front to pass through towards the end
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH for the
rest of today and into tonight. While a few stray showers will be
possible near the island chain this afternoon, uncertainty in
exact location and isolated coverage will keep mention out of
either TAF for now. Near surface winds will be out of the
southeast to south at 5 to 10 knots, veering southwest after
sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  84  74  82  70 /  20  40  50  40
Marathon  82  75  82  70 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...JAM
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM
Data Acquisition.....JAM

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