710
FXUS62 KKEY 130902
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
502 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 502 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

After quite an active evening last night, most storms within the
Florida Keys forecast area, aside from a cluster of stronger
storms in the Straits of Florida, have weakened to stratiform
rain. Impressive rainfall totals ranged from just over an inch in
Key West to an astounding nearly 10 inches in portions of the
Upper Keys. Winds are proving to be tricky once again this
morning, with marine observation platforms along the Reef
measuring sustained winds of 18 to 25 knots. The higher end of
that is still within areas of rainfall, but will continue to keep
an eye on it once the rainfall moves out of that area. These winds
are much higher than initially forecast, so had to make last
minute adjustments to the wind forecast. These over-achieving
winds should come as no surprise since they have been higher than
expected around this time for the past few days, as guidance has
not had a good handle on this pre-dawn wind surge. Winds should
come down by later this morning.

The synoptic pattern will change little over the next day or so.
The main features that have caused well above normal rainfall over
the past few days continue to be a stalled frontal boundary draped
over Northern Florida, broad troughing in the Gulf of Mexico, and
a low level ridge axis extending through the Bahamas into our
area. Models do suggest that the frontal boundary may dip a
little farther southward today, which could put us in a similar,
if not better, environment for a similar heavy rainfall event that
we saw last night. The next 12 hours will likely be a repeat of
the same pattern we have seen the past few days, with a lull in
shower activity in the morning, followed by the re-ignition of
convection later this afternoon into this evening. The Flood Watch
was extended through early tomorrow morning, with an additional
2-4 inches possible, with locally higher amounts within areas of
training storms. High temperatures today and tomorrow will peak in
the mid to upper 80s, depending on the extent of cloud cover this
morning. Dew points will be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees,
so another sticky day is on tap outside of any rainfall.

By Friday night into Saturday, we will finally break out of this
rainy pattern as high pressure will build across the Northeast
and shift out into the western North Atlantic. This high will
shove the deep tropical moisture that we are currently entrenched
in to the west, and drive in a drier airmass. Rain chances will
quickly drop down to just above normal, as will thunder chances.
High temperatures will return to near 90 degrees, and lows are
only expected to drop into the lower 80s each night as cloud
coverage decreases. By Sunday night, the pressure gradient will
tighten across the region, which will allow for breezy conditions
to prevail through the end of the extended forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 502 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the
Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, the pattern for the
remainder of the week will feature weak high pressure over the
western North Atlantic and a frontal boundary stalled over
northern Florida. However, the main weather maker will be a large
cyclonic system centered over Central America. Mainly moderate
breezes and an extended period of unsettled weather featuring
thundery squalls will persist today through Friday night. Rain and
thunder chances will decrease gradually starting Saturday.
Breezes will freshen by Saturday night, with moderate to fresh
easterly breezes expected for late in the weekend into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 502 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions will return at EYW and MTH for the morning hours and
early afternoon. TEMPO MVFR CIGS may still occur at the terminals
from nearby light showers. VCSH was listed for the entire TAF period
because while there is higher confidence that redevelopment of heavy
showers and thunderstorms will occur late in the afternoon, the
exact time said storms will impact the terminals is very uncertain.
MVFR to IFR conditions are possible in the evening hours. Prevailing
near surface winds will be southerly near 10 knots with occasional
gusts of 15 knots with higher gusts near showers.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys weather history, in 1900 the daily record
rainfall of 5.04" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for Key
West date back to 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  88  78  88  80 /  70  80  70  40
Marathon  88  78  88  80 /  70  80  70  40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch for FLZ076>078.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...NB
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP
Data Acquisition.....AJP

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