Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
414 FXUS62 KKEY 301520 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1020 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Slight rain chances are expected this afternoon through Monday. -Breezes will continue to slacken this afternoon to mainly northeast to east gentle to moderate breezes. -Small Craft Advisories conditions remain in effect for the Straits of Florida due to seas up to 7 feet. Outer Gulf and Hawk Channel will continue to carry Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines until winds decrease. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1020 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 After a couple of days of breezy to windy conditions, winds are quickly coming down. Most notably the winds across the nearshore Gulf and Bayside waters have seen the most dramatic fall. Observations across these waters are 10 to 15 knots, compared to the 15 to 20 knots across the remaining waters. Meanwhile, seas remain elevated across the Straits of Florida with seas up to 7 feet still occurring. Lastly, we continue to observed widely scattered showers quickly moving through the easterly flow. We did have some thunderstorms in the southwestern Straits this morning thanks to added lift from boundary collision coming off the Cuban coast. Otherwise, we have observed no other thunderstorms within our waters. Make big changes to the nearshore waters over the Gulf and Bayside waters to account for the sudden drop-off in winds. Otherwise, have scaled back the SCA to just the Straits of Florida for seas. Rain chances will remain best out across the Straits where instability and convergence will remain higher. Therefore, the 20 percent for the Island Chain seem to be holding for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 1020 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 High pressure will be sliding into the New England region this afternoon and it effects of the Florida Keys weather will continue to diminish. This has already allowed breezes to slacken to moderate to occasional fresh with light to gentle breezes across the nearshore waters of the Gulf and Bay waters. This high will progress further east through Monday and breezes will continue to slacken as well as shift to the east. Another high will take the place of this previous high for Monday night and early Tuesday keeping breezes gentle to moderate. A developing storm system on the heels of this high Tuesday will result in a weakening of the pressure gradient across the Keys through early Wednesday. Its corresponding cold front may try and push through the Keys mid to late week resulting in freshening north to northeast breezes. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1020 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 VFR conditions expected outside of any fast moving showers. Brief MVFR conditions are possible within passing showers. Otherwise, east-northeast winds will hold near 10 knots with occasional gusts near 20 knots. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 It feels much different outside when compared with what it felt like just 24 hours ago! Even though the wind is still blowing, the humidity has increased and temperatures are about 5 degrees warmer than this time last night. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower 70s and dew points are hovering near 70 degrees. KBYX radar has also been active for much of the night with scattered showers affecting mainly the Island Chain and marine waters to the south. Occasionally, a few showers make it to the nearshore waters to the north of the Island Chain, but these quickly entrain dry air and fizzle out. The most robust activity has remained across the western Straits of Florida where thunder and lightning were occasionally observed just outside of the Keys coverage area. However, in the last hour, we just had a lightning strike detected across the westernmost distant Straits zone to the due south of Tortugas Ecological Reserve South. GOES Nighttime Microphysics shows partly to mostly cloudy skies across the Keys with mainly low to mid level clouds. The deeper clouds such as the cumulonimbus and cumulus congestus have been across the western distant Straits. Strong surface high pressure is centered just off the New England coastline. This high extends to the south keeping a heightened pressure gradient across the area. This is promoting northeast to east breezes of 15 to 20 knots at marine platforms to the north of the Island chain with near 20 knots to the south. .FORECAST... The aforementioned surface high pressure centered just off the New England coastline will continue to slide farther to the east today. As it moves further into the North Atlantic, the high will loosen its grip on the Eastern Seaboard as well as Florida. Therefore, expect northeast to east breezes to continue to slowly slacken this morning becoming mainly gentle to moderate breezes by this afternoon. Slightly drier air is expected to move into the Keys leading to the ongoing shower activity currently waning and becoming less widespread as the day wears on. Therefore, 20% remains in the forecast for today. Some residual moisture will continue to lurk over the Keys for tonight into Monday keeping slight rain chances in the forecast. Another high pressure will move across the eastern United States tonight through Monday night taking the place of the previous high, though, this one won`t be as strong. Therefore, expect mainly gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes to continue through Monday evening before shifting to the east to southeast and further slackening overnight through Tuesday night. Rain chances remain in the forecast through Monday with a dry forecast anticipated thereafter. However, latest statistical guidance is suggesting perhaps at least slight chances of showers through much of the week. This will be scrutinized more intently with each update. Therefore, it is possible that rain chances may creep back into the forecast beyond Monday. Another frontal boundary is expected to approach the Keys mid to late week due to a developing coastal low over the DEL-MAR-VA coast. However, before the front approaches, there may be a time frame where the winds go light and variable along with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. While we are still early on in the season, there is the potential for sea fog to develop early Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. We are cooling the SST`s with each frontal passage and if we can get the dew points to increase into the mid 70s along with light and variable wind flow, this could set the stage for a window of sea fog. We will continue to keep an eye on this. It also appears this next front may just drift far enough south of the Island Chain mid to late week to result in a slight dip in dew points along with nudging temperatures down a couple degrees. Breezes are anticipated to become north to northeasterly as well as freshening. Stay tuned! && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 80 73 80 75 / 20 20 20 10 Marathon 80 73 81 75 / 20 20 20 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....LIW Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest