Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 181900
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
200 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH A LIGHT NORTH TO EASTERLY BREEZE IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES IN THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 70S. KBYX
CONTINUES TO BE VOID OF PRECIPITATION ECHOES.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS FOR
THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. A NEARLY ZONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNINTERRUPTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BROAD BUT
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN BULGED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. EXPECT A CONTINUED SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE RESIDENT AIRMASS
CONTINUES ITS STEADY MODERATION THANKS TO AN EASTERLY BREEZE THROUGH
ABOUT 5000 FEET. THROUGH THE MID TERM...THE ONLY GRIDDED ADJUSTMENT
WAS TO REMOVE THE LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY...GFS
AND ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING RELATIVELY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR REMAINING
NEARBY DESPITE THE VEERING STEERING WINDS.

LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
RIDES QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
STEADY NEARBY THOUGH. A STRONGER AND DEEPER CYCLONE WILL BE SWINGING
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY WITH A SOUTHERN EXTENSION REACHING
WELL INTO THE NORTH AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HAVE BUMPED THE
OVERALL PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK TO AT LEAST A CHANCE. INSERTED ISOLATED/SLGT CHC THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL. A MORE FAVORABLE PROFILE DEVELOPS
AND STRONGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE
STRONGER FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. REMOVED A MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE NEW DAY 7 (NEXT
THURSDAY) MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES HAS A GOOD 6 TO 10 DEGREE
VARIABILITY SPREAD BEHIND THAT FRONT. THE GRIDDED VALUES FOR THOSE
PERIODS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF
TABULAR NUMBERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT PLEASANT RECREATIONAL BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST NEARSHORE
WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WINDS OVERALL SHOULD NOT EXCEED 15 KNOTS EVEN OVER OPEN WATERS...EVEN
OCCASIONALLY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BUT STEADILY VEER FROM NORTHEAST/EAST
INITIALLY TO SOUTHEAST/SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST (TUESDAY
NIGHT). IN AN OUTLOOK BEYOND THE STATED FORECAST...A STRONGER FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. STAY ABREAST OF UPDATED COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS SHOULD YOU
HAVE BOATING PLANS IN THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE KEYS FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LIGHT BREEZE...AT TIMES VARIABLE THROUGH THE
EVENING...WILL SETTLE INTO A NORTHEAST TO EAST DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1882...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
IN KEY WEST DIPPED TO 52 DEGREES. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR DECEMBER 18 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  65  76  68  78 / -  -  -  -
MARATHON  65  76  68  78 / -  -  -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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