Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 180637
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
237 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX detects isolated showers over offshore waters surrounding the
Florida Keys. Elsewhere, KBYX detects no precipitation echoes in
the remainder of the forecast area. Skies over the island chain
are variably cloudy. Winds over land are northeast to east at 5 to
10 mph. C-MAN winds, on average, are east near 10 knots.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
A large upper level area of low pressure will pass westward
through the Florida Straits today and tonight. A tropical wave,
currently near the Dominican Republic, will approach the Florida
Keys Saturday. This tropical wave will pass through the service
area Saturday night, before entering the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico Sunday. Rain chances in the short term portion of the
forecast will be highest Saturday night due to the aforementioned
tropical wave passing through the Florida Keys.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Thursday)...
An area of low pressure should be located near Hispaniola Sunday
night. This area of low pressure will encounter increasing wind
shear early next week over the Bahamas. At this time, it looks as
if a trough of low pressure will pass through the Florida Keys
sometime Wednesday through Thursday. Forecast certainty is low
regarding the early to middle part of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Gentle northeast to east breezes will prevail on all Keys coastal
waters today. No advisories expected today through Sunday. A Small
Craft Advisory will likely be required for the coastal waters of
the Florida Straits Sunday night and Monday. A Small Craft
Advisory may be required for the coastal waters of Florida Bay,
the Gulf of Mexico, and Hawk Channel Sunday night and Monday. A
Small Craft Advisory may be required for the coastal waters of the
Atlantic and offshore Gulf of Mexico Monday night. No advisories
expected Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect mostly VFR conditions to persist at both the Key West and
Marathon International terminals through at least 19/00z. An upper
level low will drift westward across the terminals through
18/20z. Dry air is moving with the upper low, and will keep much
of the potential for operational impacts low. Have added vicinity
showers after 18/20z as moisture and lift returns with a tropical
wave on the heels of the upper low.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1926, 8.32 inches
of rain fell in Key West. This set the daily record for maximum
rainfall measured in Key West on August 18th, a record which still
stands 91 years later. In addition, this is the second wettest day
ever observed in Key West during the month of August. Rainfall
records at Key West date back to 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  91 82 91 82 / 30 40 50 60
Marathon  94 82 93 81 / 30 40 50 60

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BS
Aviation/Nowcasts....BWC

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