Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301420
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1020 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO
PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING IS VERY UNSTABLE AND
SEASONABLY MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE
AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
CONSTANT THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DRY AIR BETWEEN 2000 FEET AND
12000 FEET SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...
NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WOULD FAVOR CUMULUS CLOUD LINES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DATA FROM THE 12Z BALLOON
OBSERVATION INDICATES A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE THAN GUIDANCE
PREDICTS. EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT MTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VIS WITHIN MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...WHEREAS VFR WILL PREVAIL AT EYW. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS CLIMATE HISTORY...IN 1945...THE DAILY
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 69F WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS IS ALSO
TIED FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN KEY WEST DURING
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................CLR
DATA ACQUISITION.....................FLING

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