Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 221332
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
932 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SATELLITE SPOTTING THIS MORNING SHOWS A VERY WEAK TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A REINFORCING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS
MORNING. A LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. FINALLY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE BAHAMAS AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA
STRAITS. THE KBYX RADAR HAS WIDE SPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS SOUTHWEST OF THE DRY
TORTUGAS TO 20 MILES WEST OF CHOKOLOSKEE. CURRENTLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A CONVERGENT AREA OVER THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER KEYS...GULF AND BAY SIDE WATERS...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

.FORECAST...
IN THE SHORT TERM...DUE TO THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...MAY HAVE TO
RAISE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. BEYOND THE SHORT
TERM...EXPECT LITTLE CHANCE TO THE WELL ADVERTISED FORECAST THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE MID LATITUDES AND
TROPICS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE KEYS AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MOVES OUT TO THE EAST...A LARGE SCALE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE CARIBBEAN...ARRIVING ALONG EASTER CUBA
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WITH THE WAVE
MOVING IN WILL FOCUS LIFTING ALONG THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN
STATES EARLY TUESDAY HELPING TO INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE EAST
THROUGH THE KEYS AREA. THIS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENING.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT IS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...A
WEAK WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE KEYS KEYS LATE TUESDAY...AND OUT OF
THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY INCREASING RAIN COVERAGE OVER THE MARINE
ENVIRONMENT. BY EARLY THURSDAY THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN...RELAXING WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS IN THE WATERS NORTHWEST TO
WEST FROM THE LOWER KEYS IS WANING AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS ARE A LOW PROBABILITY DUE TO THIS AREA AT EITHER
MARATHON OR KEY WEST. MORE DISCREET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OUTER STRAITS. THE DISTANCE AND
SLOW SPEED OF THESE CELLS ALSO INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AT EITHER TERMINAL...AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OF
COURSE THIS WILL BE MONITORED...AND EITHER LOCATIONS WILL BE AMENDED
SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. EXPECT A LIGHT WIND TURNING TO THE
NORTHEAST LATER TODAY...AND THEN TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS CLIMATE HISTORY...IN 1889...THE RECORD
RAINFALL IN KEY WEST ON SEPTEMBER 22ND WAS 5.82 INCHES. THIS RECORD
REMAINS STANDING 125 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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