Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 280838
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
438 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Mean layer flow is anticyclonic at all levels and centered nearly
atop the Florida Keys. The surface ridge is fractured and reaches
west across the Florida Peninsula. Temperatures are near 80 and
dewpoints are in the mid 70s, actually a few degrees lower than
last night at this time. Winds range from north to northeast at
the Dry Tortugas to northwest in the lee of the Florida
Peninsula, all 10 knots or less. Radar imagery has been sans
echoes all night until the last hour or so. A line of showers is
developing across the Straits of Florida as nocturnal convergence
increases.

.FORECAST...
The deep anticyclone initially centered over the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico will slide east of the Florida Peninsula Monday through
Tuesday night. At the same time, warm and dry air in the middle
and lower troposphere will remain hostile to the development of
deep cumulus. Low level inhibition will erode Wednesday through
Thursday night as a cyclonic gyre develops west of the Yucatan
Peninsula. A rich tap of theta-e will stream northward from the
western Caribbean, accelerated by the gyre to the west and the
subtropical ridge to the east. Thus, expect freshening east to
southeast breezes Tuesday through Wednesday, followed by increased
rain and thunder chances Thursday through Saturday. Afternoon
highs will reach 90 degrees with overnight lows near 80. Other
than adding thunder to the forecast, no other changes needed this
cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
No current watches, warnings, or advisories. East to southeast
breezes will freshen across the coastal waters of the Florida
Keys Monday night through Tuesday night, especially across the
southern and western portions of the Straits of Florida. These
sections of the Straits will reach 15 to 20 knots during some
periods, although this is not always explicitly mentioned in the
CWF. Please refer to hourly weather graphs available on our marine
page at weather.gov/KEY/marine for detailed forecasts at
locations across the Straits.

&&

.AVIATION...
Winds will be light and variable today. A weak island cloud line
may form, resulting in spells of MVFR conditions, but showers are
not anticipated.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The high temperature in Key West reached 90 degrees yesterday
afternoon, tying the daily maximum temperature for Key West for May
27th. This was also reached in 1884 and 2000. The warmest minimum
temperatures was also tied, at 81 degrees. This was last observed in
2009.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Collection......Vickery

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