Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 271238
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
838 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
IT IS A WINDY DAY IN THE KEYS...BUT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
WITH HIGHS NEAR IN THE UPPER 80S...IT WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THE DRY AIR ALOFT HAS FULLY
OVERTAKEN THE KEYS AREA WHILE EAST TEXAS IS ENCOUNTERING ANOTHER DAY
OF ACTIVE WEATHER. THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HAS
REPOSITIONED A BIT DUE TO THE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...AND AN
UPPER LOW MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WITH THE NEW
ORIENTATION TO THE RIDGE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
TO EAST WITH NEAR 20 KNOTS AT ALL OF THE MARINE STATIONS EXCEPT 15 TO
20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BAY C-MAN STATION. THE ISLAND
TERMINALS ARE OUT OF THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO 15 TO
20 KNOTS.

.FORECAST...
WITH THE NEW ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE...AND THE
SURGE IN WINDS THIS MORNING...HAVE EXTENDED THE BREEZY FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PEAKS AND LULLS THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS BUT OVER ALL WINDS WILL BE IN THE BREEZY ARENA. THE RIDGE
WILL FINALLY BE OUT OF THE WAY BY MID DAY FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL
DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE WILL
COMBINE WITH A GOOD DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT TO PROVIDE BETTER
LIFTING...HENCE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE KEYS
AREA WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER
JET...WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE WAVE IN THE LOW LEVELS.
WITH THIS IN MIND THERE WILL BE NO CHANCES TO THE FORECAST THIS
CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN COASTAL STATES WILL
KEEP ITS HOLD ON THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE KEYS ANOTHER 36 TO 48
HOURS BEFORE WE SEE THE WINDS TRULY DECREASE. THERE WILL BE LULLS IN
THE WINDS DURING THIS NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES OUT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENSION IN TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
ALL COASTAL WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FLORIDA BAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THIS AFTERNOON. PEAKS AND LULLS IN BREEZES WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE
THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE MAINLAND DISTURBING THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS...BUT THESE WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WE
CAN START TO REMOVE SOME AREAS...FROM EAST THEN CONTINUING TO WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY BREEZES WILL DECREASE AND BECOMING
GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BRIEF...MVFR CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND 2500 FEET...ARE CONCEIVABLE
AT EYW AND MTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED
EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000
FEET WILL DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1894...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 70 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MAY 27TH...A RECORD
WHICH STILL STANDS 121 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ032>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....BS
DATA COLLECTION...............RIZZO

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