Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300228
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1028 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - THE TAIL END OF A MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS SLOWLY MIGRATING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND ADJACENT BODIES OF WATERS. THIS IS
DRIVING A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DRY AIR AND
SOME MID LEVEL SHEAR IS GIVING SHOWERS A DIFFICULT TIME AT SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES...EVEN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE MOMENT...NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS PRESENT WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SWATH OF
MORE UNIFORM WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE JUST
NORTH OF OUR AREA CAN BE SEEN IN BOTH PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY...AND A SWATH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS FLORIDA
AND SURROUNDING WATERS...AND THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECT TO BECOME
MORE WESTERLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
OUR NORTH SHOULD THEN BE STEERED MORE EASTWARD. IN ADDITION...DESPITE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...DRIER AIR WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS THE
KEYS. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SLIGHT. THE LIGHT BUT MORE DEFINED FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST
ISLAND LOCATIONS UP IN THE LOWER 80S...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. WILL ONLY REMOVE TRANSITIONAL WORDING IN AN
EVENING ZONE UPDATE.

&&

.MARINE...
OVER ALL...LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KEYS WATERS
OVERNIGHT. THE SUBTLE WIND SURGE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY EASE BACK IN LINE WITH REMAINING KEYS WATERS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WILL BE MADE IN THE
EVENING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/30TH...OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF MVFR ENCOUNTER OR TWO...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS.
MOSTLY WEST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE
ISLAND AIRPORTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA

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