Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 240121
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
925 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER KEYS...AS WELL AS OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER
THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTHEAST TO
EAST NEAR 15 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE NORTHEAST TO EAST
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND
EXTREMELY MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST UNDER TWO AND
ONE HALF OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONSTANT
OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE KEPT
ABOVE ALL NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS DUE CYCLONIC FLOW IN ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH THE EXCEPTIONALLY MOIST AIR
MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE WINDS NEAR 20
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...HAWK
CHANNEL...AND FLORIDA BAY SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTH TO
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE ISLAND TERMINALS OF KEY WEST AND
MARATHON WILL TREND TOWARDS DECREASING RAIN CHANCES...BUT WITH
STRONG...AND GUSTY AT TIMES NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. RAIN CHANCES WITH
MVFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. WINDS MAY SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY LATE ON FRIDAY...WHICH MAY CAUSE A CROSSWIND CONDITION AT
THE AREA AIRPORTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2005...A LARGE
WATERSPOUT NARROWLY MISSED MAKING LANDFALL IN KEY WEST AS IT RACED
NORTHWARD WITHIN AN OUTER RAINBAND OF HURRICANE WILMA. THIS VIOLENT
WATERSPOUT PASSED WITHIN THREE TO FOUR MILES WEST OF THE WEST END
OF KEY WEST.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................MSB
DATA ACQUISITION.....................CHESSER

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