Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 010921
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
521 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE BEING
MEASURED THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR LAND AND MARINE OBSERVING STATIONS.
A FEW QUICK HITTING SHOWERS HAVE EMERGED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...DELIVERING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION AS THEY MOVE OFF
TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE 00Z KKEY UPPER AIR SOUNDING MEASURED A
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 900 MB OR ABOUT 3100 FEET...WITH A NOTABLE
3 DEGREE CELSIUS INVERSION JUST ABOVE THAT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE OF 0.80 INCHES MEASURED FALLS BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY MAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD STEADY IN THE UPPER 70S THIS
MORNING...WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE HOVERED IN THE LOWER 70S. SKIES REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN AS THE INCREASED EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES HAVE HELP GENERATE CUMULUS CLOUDS.


.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FEATURES
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A BRIEF WIND SURGE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT OWING TO MESOSCALE EFFECTS. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO FURTHER SUBSIDE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD
OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE TO DIME POPS MONDAY NIGHT IN TO
TUESDAY HAS WINDS CLOCK AROUND TO THE SOUTH...TRANSPORTING A LITTLE
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN TO THE AREA.


&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL
MOVE IN TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES DROPS IN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN TO THURSDAY...AS A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THE LAST FEW
DAYS...BUT TIMING OF IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE FURTHER HONED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS WE HEAD IN TO
NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.MARINE...FROM SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES TODAY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS. A BRIEF WIND SURGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT...LIKELY
REQUIRING CAUTIONARY HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE DISTRICT.
THEREAFTER...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE OFF
TO THE EAST NORTHEAST...ALLOWING GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES TO
PERSIST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AT EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND PICK UP AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...KEY WEST ENDED THE MONTH OF APRIL WITH AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 77.0 DEGREES...FOR WHICH THE NORMAL IS 76.4 DEGREES.
AND IT ACCUMULATED 1.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL...FOR WHICH THE NORMAL IS
2.05 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  85  78  85  78 / -  -  -  10
MARATHON  87  77  87  78 / -  -  -  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FLING
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN

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