Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 050233
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1033 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WARM AND MUGGY
EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. HOWEVER...TONIGHT`S RAOB OBSERVATION (05/00Z) SAMPLED A
MUCH DRIER VERTICAL COLUMN. THE LAYER FROM 850-700 MB HAS DRIED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THIS MORNING...EVIDENCE OF A SAHARAN AIR LAYER
SAMPLED BY THIS MORNING`S NASSAU OBSERVATION (MYNN 04/12Z). MIMIC TPW
AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS ALSO DESCRIBE A DRIER ATMOSPHERE...ONE WHICH
WILL BE MUCH DRIER TOMORROW MORNING. THUS...ONLY A 10% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN...EVEN THIS IS BULLISH. MODERATE EAST-
SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. A SWATH OF FRESH
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DISTANT STRAITS. SINCE THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...PERIODS OF
PEAKS AND LULLS WILL BE THE NORM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. AREAS OF THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF FRESH BREEZES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE DISTANT STRAITS.

&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 12Z/5TH...OUTSIDE OF A POSSIBLE...BRIEF MVFR
CEILING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS. MOSTLY EAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THE ISLAND AIRPORTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...JULY 4TH...IN 1947...THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 6.07"
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA

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