Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 010224

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1024 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

A dynamic split flow pattern across North America has contributed
to blizzard conditions across the Plains, and widespread severe
weather and flooding rains through the river valleys of the
Heartland. And yet, the Keys remain within the persistent grip of
a robust and stubborn subtropical ridge centered near Bermuda.
Fresh to strong east-southeast breezes have persisted since late
Friday afternoon. The strongest alleyway of winds (at times near
25 knots) has been across the western half of the Florida Keys,
especially locations adjacent and west of Key West. Meanwhile,
each afternoon, locations along the Upper Keys reef tract have
subsided to 10 to 15 knots, only to increase to 20 knots or higher
after 10 PM. This appears to be related to the convergence band
emanating from the heating of Andros Island, well depicted by plan
views from the global model analyses. Nevertheless, all locations
remain under Small Craft Advisory, because we fully expect
locations along the Upper Keys to increase to near 20 knots, just
like the last two evenings. Showers along the convergence band
returned this evening to the Upper Keys, but they appear to be on
the wane. A few light showers have speckled the Straits of
Florida on the most recent scans, consistent with the increased
low level moisture and decreased static stability detected by this
evening`s KKEY RAOB. The forecast is on track and calls for
continued breezy overnight hours, with lows struggling to fall
through 80. Winds will begin to diminish near sunrise.


Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all coastal waters of
the Florida Keys due to east to southeast winds 20 to 25 knots.
See above for an explanation for the temporary decreased winds
adjacent to the Upper Keys experienced each of the last two
afternoons. Winds and seas will begin to subside towards sunrise.


Until 12z/1st, the best chance for a spell or two of MVFR
encounters will be after midnight, otherwise, VFR conditions will
predominate at the Key West and Marathon terminals. East to
southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots
will slacken appreciably by morning.


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for GMZ031>035-




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