166
FXUS63 KLBF 240525
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1125 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A system will cross the area tonight into Monday. Light rain
  is expected, especially across southwest into central
  Nebraska. Some fog is also expected.

- Cooler but mainly dry weather is expected Thanksgiving week
  (through Friday). Strong, gusty northwest winds are expected
  Tuesday behind a cold front.

- Watching a potential system next weekend. At this time
  confidence is low regarding how things will evolve regarding
  snow chances and amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 319 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

An upper level low pressure system will move from the southern
Rockies into the central plains tonight into Monday. A closed mid-
level circulation will cross the area during this time. This system
brings with it an anomalous amount of mid and upper level moisture.
There is actually a Pacific tap of from off the western coast of
Mexico...with PWATS increasing to much above normal values (on the
order of 200%) tonight. There`s a decent amount of low-level
moisture being drawn northward as well from the southern plains. Dew
points have already climbed into the lower and mid 40s across
southwest Nebraska this afternoon. Despite the high moisture
content, the system will be in the occluding and weakening phase
when it reaches our area tonight. Still expecting some rain through,
with ENS ensemble probabilities of at least 1/10 of an inch of
rainfall (50-80%) running along a fairly narrow axis, from near the
Grant/Ogallala area northeastward through North Platte and toward
O`Neill. There will be a sharp gradient (cut off line) to receiving
no precipitation across the northern Sandhills, and especially into
the central and western portions of north central Nebraska. Most of
the precipitation will fall tonight, as the mid-level FGEN rapidly
decreases after sunrise Monday.

Fog is expected to develop across portions of southwest into central
Nebraska overnight. It could become locally dense in spots, but not
expecting it to be widespread enough for any type of advisory at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 319 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Northwest flow aloft develops Tuesday through Friday. A shortwave
will amplify as it crosses the northern plains Tuesday. Looks like a
decent shot of snow will occur across North Dakota, but little in
the way of precipitation is expected across our area. It will become
windy Tuesday as a cold front surges southeastward through the area.
Area sounding profiles indicate 45-50 mph gusts appear likely. H85
flow peaks early afternoon...and is around 55-60 kts across northern
Nebraska. Flow is nearly uni-directional...and with the deep mixing
will have to entertain the idea of locally stronger gusts. Winds
will diminish significantly by Wednesday...and appears that no
travel delays or issues are anticipated for the busiest travel day
of the year. Overall, with the northwest flow pattern persisting
through Friday, precipitation chances after tonight are not
anticipated. Temperatures will average somewhat below average behind
the cold frontal passage Tuesday. Highs Tuesday through Friday will
range from the 30s across portions of north central Nebraska to the
40s across southwest Nebraska into the Panhandle.

By Saturday a system may dive southward through the central Rockies,
perhaps bringing a chance for snow to the area. Continues to be
much model/ensemble uncertainty on how the pattern will evolve and
overall confidence is low. Stay tuned as it will be a busy weekend
travel wise.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

An expanse of stratus continues to track north across southwest
Nebraska this evening, along with light rain showers. Conditions are
beginning to decrease from VFR to MVFR across southwest Nebraska,
and expect that IFR conditions will be reached in the next few
hours, largely driven by lower ceilings. Latest forecast guidance
has continued to mix in drier air, lessening precipitation expanse,
as well as limiting fog potential. Still believe that recent
rainfall and light winds will allow for some patchy fog development,
especially across southwest Nebraska. By late morning conditions are
expected to return to MVFR, with VFR conditions by the afternoon
across southwest Nebraska. Further to the north, drier air will
limit precipitation and low ceiling potential, with VFR conditions
expected to prevail throughout the TAF period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Richie