182
FXUS63 KLBF 211126
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
526 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances will diminish this afternoon across the southern
third of the forecast area.

- Temperatures will moderate back into the upper 50s to around 60
  Saturday and Sunday with mainly dry conditions expected.

- Another upper level system will enter the southern plains
  Sunday night into Monday, increasing the threat for
  precipitation across the area.

- Temperatures will trend downward beginning Tuesday with
  readings in the 40s. Behind a decent cold front Tuesday night,
  highs will only reach into the 30s for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

H5 analysis tonight and an active pattern across the western
half of the CONUS. Across the eastern CONUS, high pressure was
anchored over the Gulf with low amplitude ridging extending
north into the southeastern states. Further west, a strong
shortwave was located over northern New Mexico. Weaker
disturbances were located east of this feature and extended from
central Texas, north into western Kansas. Further west, closed
low pressure was located around San Francisco CA. A trough
extended south of this feature to the Los Angeles Basin. A broad
area of rain was located from far southwestern and far southern
Nebraska, south into central and western Kansas. As this
activity tracks north, it is encountering drier air in
association with high pressure over South Dakota and dissipating
before reaching I-80. Further north, there as been some patchy
fog development overnight, mainly over the western and
northwestern Sandhills where easterly winds and upslope has been
maximized. With cloudy skies across all of western and north
central Nebraska overnight, 2 AM CT temperatures ranged from 32
degrees at Ainsworth, Gordon and Valentine to 41 degrees at
Imperial.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 310 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

The upper level disturbance currently over southeastern
Colorado, will traverse Kansas today with precipitation
persisting on the northern periphery of this feature. So far
this evening, the NAM12 300K isentropic surface has done well
with the ongoing precipitation over Kansas and far southern
Nebraska. Favorable isentropic lift along this surface will
remain in place this morning generally along and south of a line
from Ogallala, east covering the southern half of Custer
County. Condensation pressure deficits increase significantly
just north of this line, so a sharp cutoff in precipitation will
exist this morning. This seems reasonable given high pressure
off to the north and drier mid level air in place supported by
forecast soundings. With support from the latest WARW, HRRR and
NAM12 solns, tightened up pops across the southern third of the
forecast area today. Across Lincoln County, pops range from
slight chance north of I-80 to likely pops in southern portions
of the county. Current observations across the Sandhills into
northern Nebraska indicate reduced visibilities with patchy fog.
With low level easterly winds expected to persist into the
morning hours, the threat for fog will continue and its mention
will be included with this forecast package. As for highs today,
readings will struggle to get out of the middle 40s in the
southern FA where cloud cover will persist. Across northern
Nebraska, there is some indications of limited clearing this
afternoon, which will allow highs to possibly reach into the
lower 50s. Surface high pressure will drift south of the area
tonight with light westerly winds developing. Given the degree
of low level moisture and ongoing rainfall across the southern
quarter of the forecast area, was initially concerned about fog
potential tonight. However, this isn`t supported by the latest
HRRR and NAM12 surface visby forecast, as well as the latest
SREF fog probabilities. With this in mind, will leave out a
mention of fog for tonight. Low amplitude ridging will build
into the southern and central plains Saturday. This will lead to
dry conditions and warm highs in the upper 50s to around 60,
some 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

On Sunday, an upper level low will begin to approach the
southern Rockies from the swrn CONUS. Downstream of this
feature, southerly winds will increase Sunday, leading to
additional low level moisture and warm air advection across the
area. By Sunday night, precipitation chances will increase as
the upper level low lifts from Colorado into western Kansas.
With this system totally disconnected from the northern stream,
temperatures will remain warm enough to support liquid
precipitation even during the overnight hours. The threat for
precipitation will shift into central then eastern Nebraska on
Monday. Behind the exiting system, a second, northern stream
low, will track from Montana into the Dakotas Monday night into
Tuesday. This feature will force an initial cold front through
the forecast area Monday night, followed by an even stronger
cold front on Tuesday. After highs in the middle 50s Monday,
highs will be mainly in the upper 30s and lower 40s for Tuesday
through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 526 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

There will be a lingering threat for light precipitation this
morning, mainly south of a KSNY to KBBW line. At the KLBF
terminal, expect broken ceilings this morning ranging from 2000
to 6000 FT AGL. Ceilings this afternoon will range from 3000 to
6000 FT AGL. Skies will remain mainly cloudy tonight with
ceilings improving to around 20000 FT AGL. At the KVTN terminal,
expect broken ceilings today at around 20000 FT AGL. Skies will
then scatter out this evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler