669
FXUS63 KLBF 241002
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
402 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slow tracking upper-level low will promote light rain across mainly
  the Sandhills east through North Central Nebraska today where
  total rain may approach a quarter of an inch in spots.

- A High Wind Watch has been issued for much of the day Tuesday across
  northern Nebraska as strong winds 50-60 mph develop behind a
  passing cold front.

- The extended forecast continues to focus on the potential for
  snow to impact post-Thanksgiving travel, but confidence in
  precise details remains low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 402 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

This morning, satellite analysis shows a mature mid-level low slowly
shifting east across western Kansas. On the northern periphery, much
colder cloud tops show an area of strong lift colocated with the
deformation band. This area of stronger ascent is helping drive a
narrow band of heavier precipitation. Rates have generally remained
at or below 0.10" per hour and don`t foresee any reason to stray from
this. Temperatures along and south of this precipitation band were
holding in the low to middle 40s, plenty warm for all rain. Further
north, removed from the active rain, temperatures were much colder
where light northerly winds were observed with values in the middle
20s to middle 30s.

Today...the upper-level low to the south will slowly track west to
east across central Kansas. As this happens, low pressure aloft will
slowly weaken and similarly, convergence on the northern periphery
will quickly weaken. This should allow light rain to persist through
daybreak but wane through the daytime. Leaned heavily on HREF
guidance will a further nudge to evening HRRR runs for PoPs which
paints 50-70% across the eastern Sandhills and North Central
Nebraska falling rapidly to < 20% by early afternoon. Made little
adjustments to inherited temperatures, only shifting the narrow belt
of cooler values owing to lingering precipitation. Overall though,
values remain in the low to middle 50s, or roughly 5 to 15F above
normal for late November.

Tonight/Tuesday...High Wind Watches (HW.A) have been issued for
northern Nebraska beginning tonight and lasting through much of
Tuesday. A low-amplitude shortwave will cross the Northern Rockies
through the day, ejecting onto the Plains of South Dakota by late
tonight. This should promote weak low-pressure development over
eastern Montana. A sharpening cold front will subsequently dive
south, reinforced by moderately strong high pressure settling out of
western Canada. This will will promote strong CAA with rapid
pressure rises. An abrupt wind shift with strong gusts will herald
this front`s arrival. Can`t rule out gusts nearing 50-60 mph with
this initial surge of wind, however, gusts should peak during the
daytime strong cold advection continues. On the southern periphery
of the upper-level low, flow in the lower levels will strengthen as
height fields compress invof an approaching h85 trough axis. NBM
guidance paints 70%+ probabilities of exceeding 48 knot gusts along
the Nebraska/South Dakota border and BUFKIT soundings show
unidirectional flow within a well-mixed boundary layer early in the
day. Within this mixed layer, speeds range from 40-50 knots with
NAM/GFS solutions both depicting fairly similar outputs. Did opt to
begin the HW.A early to account for the frontal passage and any gusts
that may accompany that, however, significant wind gusts are rare in
the pre-dawn hours. Nevertheless, even if initial gusts fall short
confidence is higher during the late morning and early afternoon
hours for seeing 50 knot (~60 mph) gusts. Pressure rises will slow
during the late afternoon and as the h85 trough begins to shift east
across South Dakota, flow in the lower levels should weaken in
response and allow the high wind threat to subside. Even with the
cold air filling in, temperatures should range from near to slightly
below normal values in the middle 30s to lower 40s.

Tuesday night...moderately strong high pressure will continue to
move in from the northwest. This will allow winds to drop off and
lead to a fairly calm and cool night. Westerly flow should continue
and this will allow for some cold air drainage in the low-lying
areas. Even considering this, expecting fairly expansive cold
temperatures with forecast lows falling into the lower teens in the
west to near 20F in the east. These values are near to slightly
below normal for late November.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 402 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Wednesday/Thanksgiving...mid-level disturbance glancing by to the
north will deepen over the Great Lakes. Northwesterly flow will
develop behind this feature and prevail across the Plains into
Intermountain West as a result. With increasing heights and lack of
any appreciable disturbance embedded within the flow, dry weather is
likely to start the holiday travel period. Temperatures will remain
slightly cooler than seasonable norms with highs ranging from the
middle 30s to middle 40s northeast to southwest. Overall, little to
no impacts to travel are expected during this timeframe.

Friday into the weekend...Attention quickly turns to the post-
holiday weekend with possible travel impacts due to wintry weather
across at least portions of the region. Ridging upstream will
quickly breakdown as a shortwave approaches the Pacific Northwest by
late in the day Thursday. This feature will phase back into the flow
with evolution and progression somewhat in question during the late
week. While deterministic solutions continue to show large
variations in the upper-level pattern, ensembles continue to paint a
northwest to southeast oriented band of precipitation deliver a
glancing blow to our northern and particularly northeastern zones
Friday into Saturday. A quick look at thermal profiles supports an
all-snow event though QPF remains fairly light. This likely explains
the latest WPC outlook which removes much of our northern zones from
any outlook for wintry weather on Day 6 (Day 7 previously). EPS/GEFS
show only middling (~40-50%) probabilities of exceeding 0.10" for
the Friday/Saturday timeframe. Ensemble means suggest the threat for
accumulating snow does exist, however, so folks with travel plans
should continue to monitor the forecast. This is especially true for
anyone going north to the Dakotas where heavier QPF and thus heavier
snow is expected. Temperatures will bottom out this weekend where
ECWMF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) paints slight negative anomalies
for MaxTs. The going forecast calls for daytime highs to fall into
the 30s and eventually the 20s to end the month with values below
the 10th percentile in climatology for both LBF/VTN on Sunday.

Monday and beyond...a convoluted upper-level pattern casts some
doubts on precise details for early next week. Overall, the upper
pattern appears to remain active though a split-flow regime could
keep things fairly quiet locally. NBM temperature spreads grow
significantly with inner-quartile ranges quickly reaching 15 then
20F for Monday and Tuesday respectively. Even so, 25th percentile
values show moderation towards the middle of next week suggesting
our fall to well below-normal values for the holiday weekend should
be short-lived.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

An expanse of stratus continues to track north across southwest
Nebraska this evening, along with light rain showers. Conditions are
beginning to decrease from VFR to MVFR across southwest Nebraska,
and expect that IFR conditions will be reached in the next few
hours, largely driven by lower ceilings. Latest forecast guidance
has continued to mix in drier air, lessening precipitation expanse,
as well as limiting fog potential. Still believe that recent
rainfall and light winds will allow for some patchy fog development,
especially across southwest Nebraska. By late morning conditions are
expected to return to MVFR, with VFR conditions by the afternoon
across southwest Nebraska. Further to the north, drier air will
limit precipitation and low ceiling potential, with VFR conditions
expected to prevail throughout the TAF period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon
for NEZ004>010-023>029-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Richie