Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
377 FXUS64 KLCH 100601 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1201 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - A dry cold front is expected later today before temperatures quickly moderate again by the end of the week with no significant chance for rainfall. - Another cold front is scheduled for Sunday that may bring a slight chance for showers. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1158 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Mild conditions to start the day with southerly winds and mainly sunny skies besides the high level clouds will bring warm temperatures into the afternoon. A short wave traveling quickly in the northwest flow aloft will drop down from the Plains later this afternoon into Wednesday evening that will bring a weak cold front with it. Cold frontal passage is expected to be dry as moisture remains shallow with mean layer relative humidity between 100H-50H in the 30 to 40 percent range at best. Seasonally cool temperatures behind the front for Thursday before high quickly moves off to the east and southerly winds off the Gulf return bringing warming temperatures to end the week. 07/Rua && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1158 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Increasing southerly winds and flow off the Gulf will bring about warmer than normal conditions to start the period on Saturday. A digging trough over the east coast over the weekend with an upper level ridge building over the Rockies will increase northwest flow aloft and push a cold front across the forecast area early Sunday. There is some increase in moisture ahead of the front with PWAT values getting above the 75th percentile and mean layer relative humidity nearing 70 percent on Saturday night. However, progs show upper level dynamics and low level forcing not too impressive with the front, therefore, will keep pops on the low side for late Saturday night into early Sunday. Still some question as to how cold the air mass will be behind this frontal system with some guidance suggesting the push of the colder air will be off to the east or stay to the north. 75th-25th whisker plots from the NBM ensembles are still show temperature differences of Sunday night into Monday night of nearly a 20F to 30F degree difference. At this time will go with the deterministic NBM numbers that are close to the mean. This would bring near freezing temperatures to just the usual cold spots of central Louisiana on Monday morning. At the end of the period there is some potential for an increase in seeing significant showers and rainfall with an active upper low and trough and moving toward the region in the southern jet stream. 07/Rua && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Clear skies and very light southerly winds can be expected through the night. Moisture return with the southerly flow looks meager and shallow. Therefore, only expect some patchy shallow ground fog that may affect the KLCH/KBPT terminals with MVFR conditions until 10/15z. A weak cold front is expected to move through the forecast area after 10/18z on Wednesday. With lack significant moisture any notice of the passage will be a wind shift with winds backing from the southwest to the northwest. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. 07/Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 1158 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Light southerly will continue until a weak dry cold front moves into the coastal waters late Wednesday. A brief period of modest offshore winds for Wednesday night and early Thursday before winds again become onshore by the end of the week. Also, no significant shower activity is expected through the end of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1158 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Light southerly winds for the first part of Wednesday will bring in shallow Gulf moisture with minimum afternoon relative humidity values near 60 percent. A weak cold front will move across Wednesday afternoon and evening bringing in slightly cooler air and drier conditions with with minimum afternoon relative humidity values on Thursday around 40 percent. High pressure behind this front will move quickly to the east with southerly winds bringing warmer temperatures and an increase in low level moisture. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 67 36 60 41 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 72 42 63 49 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 71 40 62 47 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 73 43 65 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...07