129
FXUS64 KLCH 082323
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
523 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool conditions expected overnight with easing north winds.

- Moisture returns through the mid to late week bringing milder
  temperatures, but no organized rainfall chances to the area
  through the end the work week.

- Slightly cooler, but seasonable conditions expected to trend
  into the weekend with very low chances for rainfall forecast at
  this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 517 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

A large shortwave trough broadening over the Ohio Valley will
continue to facilitate cold air advection across the forecast area
through tonight while the front advances further offshore. Winds are
forecast to ease Tuesday morning becoming light and variable
before shifting onshore Tuesday night as the ridge begins to
consolidate over the Carolinas. Mid to upper level winds will keep
dry continental air aloft through the midweek, however. Thus,
with a drier atmosphere, we can expect mostly clear skies tomorrow
through Wednesday. Daily highs will trend warmer to the low 70`s
by this time. However, lows will remain more seasonable, dropping
down to the lower 40`s with some backyards in CenLA observing 30`s
through the remainder of the short term.

 Kowalski / 30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 517 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Seasonable temperatures can be expected Thursday with highs in the
upper 60`s as winds mix more continental air across the forecast
area while westerly components aloft increase. Additionally,
onshore moisture advection increases in response to a weak trough
deepening off the Sierra Madres into the central Gulf. That said,
it appears majority of guidances keeps this feature well south of
E`rn TX and LA so PoPs remain negligible. However, temperatures
and dewpoints will increase toward the mid 70`s and low 60`s,
respectively. Progressing through the weekend, conditions still
appear to trend dry at the surface with the trough migrating east
over the central Gulf. It`s worth noting an element of uncertainty
with regards to the upcoming weekend. As it stands in the
forecast, mild conditions are in the works with an increase in
afternoon cloudcover, however, rainfall appears to keep south of
the forecast area. Some deterministic guidance have been
suggestive that the broad trough in the Gulf lifts a bit further
north toward the coast, but given the distance between the
upstream trough over New England, the practicality of this
solution is stretched.

 Kowalski / 30

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Only issue for tonight is the potential for some cold air
advection strato-cu to move down and clip the terminals at
KAEX/KLFT/KARA that may allow for MVFR ceilings. Otherwise, high
pressure will build down with light winds and mainly VFR
conditions. On Tuesday, high pressure will move off to the east
with light winds becoming more from a southerly direction,
although moisture return looks meager and VFR conditions are
expected.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 517 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect over the offshore waters
through 6PM. North winds will ease this evening allowing
conditions to lower through Tuesday as winds become NE with
variable components. Winds become southerly Wednesday before
gaining variable components once again through the end of the
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 517 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Fire weather concerns are not overly anticipated due to the
improvement in ground moisture from recent rains. Breezy northerly
winds will ease this evening and remain light through Tuesday.
An increase of Gulf moisture will occur overnight into Wednesday
with brief onshore winds lasting through the day before light and
variable winds under broadening high pressure return Thursday. At
this time there are no notable chances for rain over the next 6
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  31  59  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  35  60  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  34  59  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  38  62  47  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ450-452-
     455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...07