Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
448 FXUS64 KLCH 181134 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 534 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of fog are likely again tonight into Wednesday morning, however, lighter winds aloft will allow for the potential of the fog to become dense in greater coverage. - Persistent weather pattern will continue through mid week with above normal temperatures and humidity. - Precipitation chances return Thursday ahead of a Pacific cold front that will reach the area late in the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 527 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 A ridge of high pressure centered over the Carolinas will shift over the eastern Atlantic through tonight keeping light SE winds aloft in place. This southerly Gulf advection will help raise temperatures in the 80`s again today and Wednesday while lows remain roughly 15F above climatological norms for this time of year. Another round of fog possible tonight, though looking more patchy as opposed to widespread dense at this time with elevated winds aloft. Despite afternoon RH ranging between 50-60% drought conditions continue to worsen as with roughly 0.10-0.15" of pan evaporation measured recently. Combined with some afternoon gust reaching 15-20MPH, caution while burning should be taken-where permitted. Concurrently and upper level subtropical ridge will build across the the Mississippi Valley ahead of deepening shortwave trough over the western CONUS. Chances of rain do enter the forecast on Thursday, but are limited at this time given the expected dry mid levels and subsequent inversions limiting convective potential. Guidance paints a locally stronger signal for scattered showers with some rumbles of thunder Thursday night with a dryline cold front surging east across central Texas. Kowalski / 30 && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 527 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Friday morning showers and few storms associated with the decaying trough will spread east across the area with a cold front arriving later in the day to usher out the bulk of the precipitation. Will caveat this front won`t continue significant reduction in afternoon RH as seen in previous weeks. Milder temperatures in the mid 70`s will follow behind the front into the upcoming weekend. Blended and deterministic guidance still hold on to isolated chances, but it would not be too foregone to call it unsettled with respect to precipitation. Much of the stronger favorable forcing dynamics associated with the Jet max lie well to the north across the central Plains and Ohio Valley. Therefore confidence is not strong in seeing very substantial wetting rainfalls. At the very least, this addition to moisture will help hamper fire weather conditions late in the forecast period. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 With exception to parts of SETX, sites once again are experiencing LIFR conditions as a result of patchy dense fog and low CIGs. These conditions are expected to persist for the next few hours before slowly dissipating after sunrise. VFR conditions will be likely from late in the morning lasting until tonight, where yet another round of dense fog will be possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 527 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 A series of waves moving north of the region will bring about a prolonged period of variable pressure fields and onshore winds at a breezy to occasionally moderate flow. Late in the work week, a deeply amplified weather system will be approaching from the west bringing about stronger onshore winds and periods of showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas will gradually increase from early Thursday into Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 527 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Persistent forecast will prevail over the coming days with elevated moisture still settled into the region. Overnight periods of patchy to dense fog are expected through Wednesday with conditions improving after sunrise. Day time RH values ranging from 50 to 65 percent with no rainfall likely until Thursday. At this time chances for a wetting rainfall of at least a 0.25 inch is roughly 50-70% between Thursday and Friday evening, however, chances of more substantial rainfall of 1.00" or higher is much lower. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 84 62 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 82 66 82 64 / 10 0 0 10 LFT 82 63 83 63 / 10 0 0 0 BPT 84 66 83 65 / 10 0 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...87