Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
306 FXUS64 KLCH 022322 AAA AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Lake Charles LA Issued by National Weather Service Brownsville TX 522 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool and dry conditions today with skies continuing to clear. - A light freeze is expected roughly north of the I-10 corridor tonight into Wednesday morning. - Another coastal low developing and moving up the Texas gulf coast will increase rain chances Wednesday afternoon. An approaching cold front will keep precipitation chances elevated Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 518 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 The cold front has fully moved through the area and continues progressing into the Gulf as a cool high pressure system moves in from Texas. Northerly winds are elevated at the moment; however, they will begin to relax as the high pressure approaches. MaxTs will be limited to the 40s and 50s today due to the OVC deck we have had most of the day, with gradual clearing expected later this evening into tomorrow morning. This will allow for radiational cooling, with MinTs early tomorrow morning falling into the upper 20s to 30s. The high pressure will be over the Ozarks early tomorrow morning, then over the western Appalachians by the afternoon. This will allow for the return of southerly flow in our region, which, along with a disturbance taking shape along the Texas coast, will allow showers to return to the forecast late tomorrow night. Shower activity will continue thanks to an upper disturbance moving into the region. As it moves through, we will not see much clearing, as it will meander along the coast with a plume of moisture remaining overhead. Heavy showers will be likely starting late tomorrow and continuing through most of the day Thursday. This could lead to ponding and minor street flooding, hence the Marginal Risk ERO over the southeastern two / thirds of the CWA. With the deeper plume of moisture shifting east on Friday, showers will become scattered to isolated, with parts of the Atchafalaya Basin likely seeing another day of minor flooding. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 518 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Scattered showers will taper during the day on Saturday, then an upper trough will push a front through the region Sunday into Monday. A high pressure will sink into the Southern Plains on Monday, with slightly cooler and drier air moving in. This will help clear out rain and cloud cover heading into early next work week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 518 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through tonight into Wednesday. Winds will continue to become light after sunset. Light variable wind will become easterly and eventually more southerly by Wednesday afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 518 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Gusty offshore flow and seas of 3-5 feet will continue in the wake of a frontal passage through the morning before weakening this afternoon as high pressure begins to build across the region. Winds will turn back onshore Wednesday afternoon ahead of a developing coastal low that will bring widespread precipitation across the coastal waters Wednesday through late Friday. Strong offshore winds and increasing seas are expected to develop Thursday in the vicinity of the center of the coastal low before abating late Friday as the low pushes off to the east. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 518 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Breezy north winds will continue through the late afternoon before diminishing later this evening as high pressure builds into the region. Precipitation chances increase significantly Wednesday evening and remain elevated through Friday night as a coastal low and frontal boundary interact near the coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 28 58 43 MMM / 0 0 90 80 LCH 35 64 52 MMM / 0 10 90 90 LFT 34 62 51 MMM / 0 0 90 90 BPT 39 65 53 MMM / 0 10 100 90 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ AVIATION...AM