906
FXUS64 KLCH 041738
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1138 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rain continues as a coastal low remains offshore.
  Widespread 1 to 3 inches is expected with pockets of up to 6
  inches possible.

- An approaching cold front will keep precipitation lingering through
  early Saturday with milder air filtering in through early
  Sunday

- Dry and cool conditions expected Monday through the midweek as a
  stronger high pressure airmass moves into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Widespread heavy rain continues to impact Acadiana with
widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain and pockets of higher amounts.
Tonight through Saturday we will continue to see periods of
moderate to heavy showers as low pressure remains offshore with
weakness aloft. Moisture will remain an issue as PWATs remain near
the 90th percentile with low and mid-level RH values above 75%.
This will create conditions that will be favorable for efficient
rain rates and the possibility for localized flash flooding. As
the surface low continues to move eastward, conditions will slowly
improve. By the end of the weekend, dry air aloft will put an end
to the widespread rain with any remaining convection remaining
offshore.

Temperatures will remain chilly despite the overcast skies and
rain with lows in the 30s and 40s and highs in the 50s. Overall,
the short-term forecast is for wet and cold conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

The rest of the weekend and into next week looks to be calm due to
post-frontal high pressure and strong cold air advection. At the
start of the work week, we will be looking at some large
temperature swings with highs in the 50s to 60s and lows back down
into the 30s and 40s. This cool down will be short-lived as
onshore flow will return as surface high pressure builds in the
Gulf and pushes warm marine air north. Temperatures will rise in
response, with our highs breaking back into the 70s and our lows
into the 50s. The end of the week and going into the weekend will
be benign as dry air aloft will keep PWATs around half an inch and
PoPs will remain near zero.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

IFR to LIFR ceilings are impacting all terminals this morning and
will continue to impact our airports through this forecast cycle.
A coastal low continues to bring periods of moderate to heavy
rain with visibility dropping to MVFR/IFR levels near the showers.
Winds will remain from the N/NE around 10 knots through the TAF
forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

A small craft advisory is now in effect as ASCAT showed 20 knot
winds in our western waters. Winds will remain gusty and offshore
through tonight with the SCA ending at 09Z tonight. With the
offshore flow there is a possibility for a low water event (-1.0
ft below MLLW) during low tide on Friday morning. For the weekend
conditions will improve before another cold front brings more
gusty offshore winds on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Widespread rain will continue to limit the danger of fire weather
across the region. KBDI values have fallen from the 700s to 400
and below across the CWA. Early next week dry air will reduce the
chance of rain to zero with gusty north winds and minimum RH
values in the 50s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  49  35  49  40 /  90  30  20  50
LCH  57  41  51  45 /  90  20  50  50
LFT  57  42  51  45 / 100  40  50  60
BPT  59  41  52  45 /  80  10  40  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Friday for GMZ430-432-450-
     452-470-472.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14