079
FXUS64 KLCH 071144
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
544 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moisture moving in overnight will develop dense fog over the
region, thus a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued from southeast
Texas into central and southwest Louisiana.

- A few scattered showers to isolated storms will be possible late
today as a cold front moves through. Rain should be swept out fully
by midnight Monday.

- Dry and cool conditions Monday will precede a beautiful Tuesday
  with temps in the 60s. Moderating airmass in the 60s and 70s
  are expected into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 535 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Very warm and humid conditions will lift north through the region
overnight as increasing southerly winds aloft lifts north a warm
front into north LA. In response to this isentropic lift, expect
widespread mugginess, low cloud decks and dense fog into Sunday
morning. Temps will warm into the low 70s.

This all occurs ahead of a sharp cold front expected to sling
through the region late Sunday. So, while it will be above normal
warmth, at least it won`t last long! Much colder and drier air
will sweep through into Monday with much clearer conditions
developing within highs in the 50s!

Forcing along the frontal axis will combine with less-than-stellar
instability to scatter across a few showers and isolated very weak
thunderstorms into the area from west to east. Guidance keeps the
best instability over southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana
through the early afternoon, but it stands to reason there will be
sufficient instability to bring the shower and storm threat into
central LA to Lower Acadiana in the evening. All rain threat will be
gone by Midnight Monday night.

Clear, beautiful conditions with temps in the low 60s expected
Tuesday.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 535 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Active pattern really ramps up into the longterm period (and beyond)
with a parade of trofs and ridges anticipated to move over the
region. High pressure moves off to the east quickly on Tuesday with
Wednesday and Thursday seeing moderating temps in the 70s as
well as onshore winds returning moisture once again.

A large swinging upper shortwave pulse will usher southward another
cold front. However, the front doesn`t push through the region until
late Thursday or early Friday preceding very robust sfc high.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Areas of fog will continue to develop in the vicinity of all
terminals until 14Z with brief dense fog possible. Visibilities
should improve by 15Z with fog lifting into an IFR ceiling which
will persist through much of the day. A cold front will push
through the region this afternoon from west to east. A few showers
and thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of this
boundary. Winds will veer northwest behind the front and increase
overnight gusting as high as 25 knots. While a brief period of
MVFR ceilings will be possible this afternoon, IFR ceilings are
expected to become reestablished after sunset and continue through
the night.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 535 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Showery rainfall can be expected until late today/early Monday when
a sharp cold front moves through. Very strong offshore winds will
quickly develop Monday morning. A Small Craft Advisory has been
issued for all marine zones into mid day Monday. A gradual
improvement in wind and sea conditions will take place into Tuesday
as offshore winds slow down and return to onshore once again. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 535 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

A warm front will lift through the region this morning sending very
low ceilings, deep moisture and dense fog across the area. Thus, a
Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 8 AM. A sharp cold front moves
through later today, with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms passing in its wake. Not anticipating heavy rainfall
or extensive lightning.

Much cooler and drier conditions will develop into Monday with
daytime minimum RH values in the 50s and 40s anticipated Monday and
Tuesday, respectively. Fire weather concerns are not overly
anticipated due to the improvement in ground moisture from recent
rains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 535 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

A warm front will lift through the region this morning sending very
low ceilings, deep moisture and dense fog across the area. Thus, a
Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 8 AM. A sharp cold front moves
through later today, with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms passing in its wake. Not anticipating heavy rainfall
or extensive lightning.

Much cooler and drier conditions will develop into Monday with
daytime minimum RH values in the 50s and 40s anticipated Monday and
Tuesday, respectively. Fire weather concerns are not overly
anticipated due to the improvement in ground moisture from recent
rains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  40  54  32 /  40  10   0   0
LCH  73  46  59  36 /  30  10   0   0
LFT  73  46  57  35 /  50  30   0   0
BPT  75  44  60  38 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for LAZ027>033-
     073-074-141>143-241>243.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for TXZ180-201-
     259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ430-
     432-435-436.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
     for GMZ430-432.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
     for GMZ435-436.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Monday
     for GMZ450-452.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Monday
     for GMZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Monday
     for GMZ470-472.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Monday
     for GMZ475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...66