Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
165 FXUS64 KLCH 122328 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 528 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures over the period will become well above normal with little to no rain chances until this weekend into early next work week. - Rain returns this early next week the chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 518 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 High pressure is located well to our east over central Florida and is driving warm, humid Gulf air north. The return flow from the Gulf has been more robust than expected with dew points going from the low 20s to teens on Monday to the 60s this morning. In addition to the increase in moisture, our temperatures will continue to climb with highs reaching the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Aloft, a building ridge will keep our skies clear as subsidence from the high will limit convection, even with the increase in moisture at the surface. For the rest of the week, PoPs will be near zero with mostly clear skies. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 518 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 The effects of the ridge aloft will strengthen as it shifts from central Texas to Louisiana. Climatologically this ridge is stronger than normal, with 500 mb heights over the 90th percentile , for this time of year. Our dry pattern will finally start to change as a series of cutoff lows will impact California and move across the CONUS. Models have had little run-to-run consistency with the timing for this system, with each run showing less rain starting later in the forecast. Even with the uncertainty, we do have good chances for wetting rain across the region with a 50 to 80% probability of 0.25 inches or more of rain early next week. Impacts other than widespread rain are difficult to nail down but there are some signals we could see some stronger thunderstorms next week. Make sure to keep a close eye on the forecast if you have any plans this weekend or for the first half of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 518 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 A mild and quiet evening is ongoing across the region. Any lingering breezes will diminish with sundown and as ridging starts to build in over TX/LA. Height rises will take place from now until thru at least 12Z, which should wash out most remaining cloud cover and bring winds to calm. Within the moist airmass that has moved in, at least widespread patchy fog is expected. The best pooling is over southeast TX and into extreme southwest LA, where higher dewpoints have been observed. There is decent model agreement that VIS less than 1 SM is expected, with both discrete models and ensembles placing probabilities of 50 to 70 percent of this scenario over all of southeast TX and portions of southwest LA. There is a roughly 20 to 30 percent chance of areas of dense fog developing prior to sunrise. No dense fog advisory has been issued, nor were 1/4SM conditions included in TAFs at this time. Another day of scattered low clouds and breezy southerly winds expected Thursday. 11 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 53 79 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 60 78 59 79 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 57 78 56 79 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 60 80 60 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...11