853
FXUS64 KLCH 041157
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
657 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier air in the mid levels is expected to reduce rain chances
  through Friday as temperatures remain near climatological
  normals.

- Rain chances are expected to return over the weekend as moisture
  pools ahead of the next frontal boundary that will push through
  the region late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

- Potential for below climatological normal temperatures early
  next week as strong high pressure over the Midwest builds in and
  brings significantly drier air behind the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

During the overnight, a few nocturnal showers may form over the
coastal waters and try to move inland toward the I-10 corridor,
however probability is on the low side that they reach I-10 corridor
before weakening. The other issue in the overnight period will be
patchy fog as clear skies, light winds, and stable conditions will
occur. Rural locations that received any significant rainfall will
have the best chance of seeing the patchy fog that will dissipate
shortly after sunrise.

For today into Friday, upper level low over Great Lakes and an upper
level high over Texas will allow for northerly flow that will bring
dry and subsident air into the region, with PWAT values near or
below 1.5 inches and mean layer relative humidity values near or
below 50 percent. The drier air should limit any significant shower
activity.

At the surface, southerly flow will still occur helping to bring in
low level Gulf moisture that will keep normal summertime air
temperatures and humid conditions around.

On Saturday, rain chances will be back in the forecast. A frontal
system from the north will approach the forecast area. Meanwhile,
upper level high will break down with flow allowing for some East
Pac moisture to reach the forecast area. PWAT values increase to
between 1.75 and 2 inches with mean layer relative humidity above 60
percent.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

On Sunday, a cold front will moving down across the forecast area
and should make it out into the Gulf. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms are expected out ahead of the front as decent moisture
values remain in place. Still some question as how much moisture
from the remnants of East Pac tropical system Lorena can get
entrained into the frontal system. If this happens then high
rainfall chances and amounts will occur. At this point, the deeper
tropical like moisture is not expected to reach the forecast area.

Significantly drier and cooler air is then expected behind the cold
front into early to middle part of the week. Temperatures,
especially lows at nights are forecast to be below normal. The
"coolest" period on Monday night into Tuesday morning with NBM
showing lows near 60F for central Louisiana and upper southeast
Texas and mid 60s down to the I-10 corridor. However, it should be
cautioned that the deterministic NBM temperatures during that
period are at or below the 25th percentile of the whisker plot.

Also, with the drier air, very little to no chance of rain is
expected from Monday through Wednesday.

Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

A few weak storms and showers developed overnight, most primarily
offshore of LCH terminal, along a theta-e (moisture) boundary
located very local to the development area. A few more showers or
weak storms may develop here before strong northwest upper level
winds wash this boundary out to nearshore waters. Surface winds
will prevail from the south and southwest keeping a fetch of moist
air present at the surface. This will bring about widespread
cumulus development with upper level dry air keeping the lid on
any attempts to develop convection.

Conditions improve once again after sundown with another round of
patchy fog possible thru 12Z Friday.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  71  94  72 /   0   0   0  10
LCH  91  76  91  75 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  91  74  91  74 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  93  76  91  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...11