659
FXUS64 KLCH 170535
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1135 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for Dense Fog into Monday morning.

- Persistent weather pattern will continue through mid week with
  above normal temperatures and humidity.

- Precipitation chances return Thursday ahead of a Pacific cold
  front that will reach the area late in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

A very persistent pattern will continue during the period. Surface
high will be centered off to the east around the northeast Gulf.
Flow around the high will bring low level Gulf air into the forecast
area allowing for unseasonable warm and humid conditions. Meanwhile,
enough upper level ridging will be noted, and this should keep drier
air in the mid levels and helping to provide an atmospheric cap over
the region that will suppress convection. Therefore, no chance for
significant rainfall.

Fog potential during the late night and early morning hours will be
the main concern. Clear skies and light winds for the remainder of tonight
will allow air temperatures to fall to at or below late afternoon
dew point readings making the near surface layer supersaturated,
this should aid in the formation of fog. With winds above the
surface also light, fog will be able to stick around and become
dense, especially near locations where any residual smoke from
daily burnings will be found. HREF probabilities are showing over
a 50 percent chance of seeing visibilities below 1/4 of a mile at
times for a majority of the forecast area. Therefore, have issued
a Dense Fog Advisory through 9 AM CST Monday.

For Monday and Tuesday nights, fog probabilities are a little lower
as guidance shows winds above the surface may be a little higher
along with increasing high level cloudiness.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Guidance is a little slower with ejecting out Pacific energy from
the southwest US and across the Rockies and with the upper level
ridging over the region breaking down. The upper level trough and
associated Pacific cold front is looking more like overnight
Thursday night into Friday.

Dynamics are also not looking quite as impressive on the latest
guidance runs. Still low level jet will bring in highly anomalous
Gulf moisture with PWAT values by late Thursday over 1.5 inches,
which is over the 90th percentile of climo, with mean layer relative
humidity values above 80 percent. Lift from the front and upper
level trough should work with the moisture to bring about
widespread shower activity. Still some questions in the details as
far as the instability and shear as this system moves through,
although with highly anomalous moisture and unseasonably warm air
mass, some potential for locally heavy rainfall or strong storms
may come about.

As we get into next weekend, the forecast is of a low confidence as
there are still differences between the frontal system either
clearing the forecast area leaving drier and cooler conditions or
moisture hanging around with some chance for rain.

Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Currently fog has already developed at KLCH and KARA with IFR/LIFR
conditions. With skies remaining mostly clear and light winds,
air temperatures will continue to drop to or below what the late
afternoon dewpoint values were and that will allow for a
supersaturated air mass near the surface, and with that fog
formation. MVFR conditions are expected by or shortly after 17/06z
for terminals where fog has yet to from with the potential for
IFR/LIFR between 17/10-14z.

Fog will lift shortly after sunrise and by 17/15z with daytime
heating and an increase in surface winds.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1128 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

High pressure centered over the northeastern gulf will ridge into
the coastal waters through the middle part of the week. This will
keep mainly light onshore winds and low seas through Wednesday.
Onshore flow will increase somewhat by Thursday as low pressure
forms over the Southern Plains. The next chance for any significant
shower activity will be Thursday into Friday ahead of an approaching
frontal boundary.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1127 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Southerly winds off the Gulf will keep warm and humid conditions in
place through at least the first half of the up-coming week. An
upper level high over the region will keep any significant rain
chance out of the forecast during the same time frame. Minimum
afternoon relative humidity values will be over 50 percent. Areas
of fog being patchy dense, especially near locations with residual
smoke, will be possible at night and during the early morning
hours into Tuesday morning. The next chance for any significant
rainfall will be during the latter part of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  82  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  64  81  65  82 /   0   0   0  10
LFT  61  81  64  82 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  65  82  65  83 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for LAZ027>033-044-045-
     055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for TXZ180-201-259>262-
     515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07