Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
215 FXUS64 KLCH 140559 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1159 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy dense fog possible late tonight into early Friday morning - Persistent weather pattern will continue through the weekend with above normal temperatures and humidity - Low precipitation chances return early next week ahead of the next cold front that will move through sometime late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1158 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Little has changed in thinking over the short term period. Warm, above average-temp days and humid conditions can be expected through the weekend beneath high pressure ridge overhead and sfc high to the east pumping Gulf moisture inland. Temps will be on the rise with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s expected. Not expecting to break any records out there, but it certainly doesn`t feel like mid fall. Only other forecast piece to note will be the continuing chance for patchy dense fog each morning so long as this pattern persists. Not anticipating large areas of dense fog, not enough to warrant an advisory, but rather expect large areas of patchy fog with dense patches intermixed. Make sure to take caution when traveling these next several mornings. 11 && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 1158 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Guidance continues to bounce around all over the place when it comes to next week`s forecast. A parade of lows marching east from the Pacific will take the wheel next week and frankly globals aren`t quite sure how to handle each of them as they move across the US. Monday, ridging over the north central Gulf attempts to hang on to start the week. A weakly amplified upper low ejecting off of the Rockies will take the first swipe at breaking down the high. Upper patterns become zonal in response while surface ridge hangs on into Tuesday. This keeps Monday and Tuesday largely very warm and void of rain chances, although the weakening ridge and increasing jet aloft should offer more cloud cover over this time. Wednesday to the end of the work week... an upper low spinning down the west coast embeds itself into an amplifying upper trof thru Wednesday. This where guidance is now struggling. When to bring this trof across the south US and how amplified will it be? Depending on STJ interactions, the trof could be pulled northeastward across the heart of Texas as early as Thursday AM. Or if the jet is slower to respond the low may not move across the forecast area until late Thursday or Friday. Today`s suite of guidance slowed down the movement of the weather system and with the 00z runs, it appears the next wash of active weather doesn`t arrive to the area until early weekend. So what to plan for? Whether the trof ejects Wednesday or late Thursday, increasing flow and isentropic lift could spread rain chances back into the forecast as early as late Wednesday which could hang around for a few days. Flow combined from the south Pacific and Gulf would bring northward plenty of anomalous moisture. We could use a good rain. Maybe not all at one time, but over a couple of days it would be great! 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Clear skies and calm conditions should bring about widespread patchy fog by morning. There could be some patches of dense fog intermixed, particularly in southwest LA near LCH where lingering smoke helped to kickstart fog development. Most terminals are expected to stay above 1 to 2 SM VIS thru sunrise. Another day of VFR clouds and light to occasionally breeze south winds can be expected. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Issued at 1158 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Onshore flow with low to occasionally moderate winds and low seas can be anticipated through the early part of next week as high pressure regime remains in control of the forecast. Towards the middle of next week, a series of waves moving across the central US will act to break down the coastal ridge from Wednesday onward. From Wednesday to the end of the work week, onshore winds and seas are expected to increase in response to these features. Weakening of the ridge may also bring about the return of showers by late Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1158 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Similar persistence forecast is anticipated from today through the weekend. High pressure ridge over the region combined with onshore flow from the Gulf will bring about above average temperatures and humidity through the weekend. Winds are progged to prevail from the south and could be breeze at times during daytime hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 53 80 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 59 78 59 79 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 56 78 57 79 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 60 80 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11