515
FXUS64 KLUB 191746
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1146 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1145 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

 - Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast tonight
   into Thursday evening, with some locally heavy rainfall.

 - Some storms tonight and Thursday may be marginally severe,
   with hail up to one inch in diameter and wind gusts up to 60
   mph possible.

 - Cool temperatures through early next week with more rain
   chances this weekend into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

16Z upper air analysis depicts a neutrally-tilting trough pivoting
into the Desert Southwest, with the 300 mb and 500 mb jet streaks,
objectively analyzed at nearly 100 kt and 60 kt, respectively, by
the 12Z UA charts rounding its base and emerging over the High
Plains. A closed low remains embedded within this trough, and is
beginning to open at and above 300 mb as an upstream trough digging
into the Pacific Northwest modulates its tilt. The 12Z RAOB from NKX
(Miramar, CA) observed a tropopause fold down to 475 mb, with a
geopotential height minima near 554 dam, which is typical of a
sharply cyclonic, closed trough. A well-defined baroclinic leaf was
evident on water-vapor imagery along the eastern periphery of the
closed low, where intense frontogenesis continues over the Mojave
and Yuma Deserts. Large-scale, moist, isentropic ascent continues to
advect northeastward over northern Mexico and into the southern
Great Plains (i.e., thick cirrus), and the dense overcast will
persist throughout the next 36 hours. Moistening of the lower theta
surfaces is also underway, as seen on webcams via the development of
an ACCAS field, with entrained bases, and fractus over LBB. Bands of
rain showers have been ongoing across the northwestern zones since
sunrise, where the effects of wet-bulbing beneath cloud base have
allowed rain to tip a few WTM buckets.

At the surface, lee cyclone was located west of ODO near Wink, with
a quasi-stationary front extending northeastward to LUV and bending
eastward past SNK. The dryline branches southward from this surface
low, while another weak, quasi-stationary front extends northward
along the NM state line and connecting to a weak cyclone near the
Raton Mesa. The airmass immediately south of the quasi-stationary
front is very moist, with the western edge of the 65 degree
isodrosotherm advecting poleward across the Concho Valley and
dewpoints in the lower 60s now crossing into the southern Rolling
Plains per recent METAR and WTM data. Diabatic heating was muted
from the thick overcast, but differential heating via the effects of
WAA associated with the moist/theta-e tongue as the quasi-stationary
front undergoes warm-frontogenesis has resulted in temperatures
breaching 70 degrees in the southeastern Rolling Plains. Dewpoints
were raised from the NBM, primarily for the eastern zones, to better
match the current observations where strong theta-e advection will
continue as the warm front lifts northward throughout the day, while
also capturing the position of the dryline as it propagates poleward.

High-based, WAA-induced rain showers across the western South Plains
and far southwestern TX PH will eventually move to the northeast,
with a lull in showers to follow. Farther east, rapid moisture
return accompanying the passage of the warm front will extend the
depth of the boundary-layer while allowing parcel trajectories to
transition from elevated to surface-based. Low PoPs have been
maintained for most of the Rolling Plains this afternoon, as there
remains an indication of isolated-to-widely-scattered showers and
storms to form as a shortwave perturbation moves over W TX. The 12Z
RAOB from MMCU indicated mid-level lapse rates near 7 deg C/km
within the deep-layer, southwesterly flow, which will transition
into modest CAPE after advecting over the moist sector (e.g., the
DRT RAOB sampled 1,708 J/kg of MLCAPE). The southeastern Rolling
Plains will be along the western edge of the moist sector, with CAPE
values expected to hold steady near 1,000 J/kg in congruence the
intense kinematic fields. As previously stated, the coverage of
storms in the Rolling Plains will be limited this afternoon, with a
mean storm motion to the northeast at 40 kt, but updrafts that
mature may produce hail up to one-inch in diameter.

PoPs are expected to increase quickly after dark and into Thursday
morning. The shortwave trough pivoting over the Desert Southwest
will become negatively-tilted tonight following a wave break
emanating from the base of a northern-stream shortwave trough
ejecting into the Pacific Northwest. As this occurs, a temporal
formation of a cyclonic gyre will occur, with the upstream vorticity
lobe continuing to propagate southeastward offshore CA and allow the
negatively-tilted trough to eject over W TX Thursday. Geopotential
height falls will be steep, on the order of 100 m/12 hr, as the
trough ejects and generates intense, divergent outflow and a
substantial enlargement of the irrotational wind vectors. Repeated
rounds of fast-moving showers and storms are expected, with the
potential for some strong-to-severe-caliber cells capable of
producing hail up to one-inch in diameter, in addition to brief,
heavy rainfall, during the predawn hours Thursday. It is possible
that the baroclinic leaf generates a wide shield of rain initially
before stronger convection arrives by the early afternoon as the
vorticity lobe rotates over the southern Rocky Mountains.

By the afternoon and evening hours, the potential for more-organized
storms is forecast to materialize along the eastward-advancing cold
front, which will be rooted through the mid-levels. A narrow squall
line should develop as the Pacific cold front moves across the
Caprock and into the Rolling Plains, and given the intensity of the
flow throughout the cloud-bearing layer, localized damaging gusts
and hail events near one-inch in diameter will be possible, in
addition to a quick-hitting round of heavy rain. Conditions will
rapidly improve after dark as the vorticity lobe becomes
increasingly stretched due to the decaying state of the trough and
as the Pacific cold front undergoes frontolysis. Flooding potential
will be limited with this event due to the fast storm motions, but
spotty flooding will be possible from training storms.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Thursday evening begins with a negatively-tilted trough bisecting
the forecast area before sweeping north to the I70 corridor by
daybreak Friday. This spells a quick end to any lingering showers
and storms by midnight especially as a Pacific front scoots across
the area and PWATs tumble to 1/3" or lower. Heights rebound on
Friday ahead of a ridge in SW flow that amplifies by Saturday as
it drifts slowly downstream of the CWA. What looms in its wake is
a hardy stacked low over the northern Baja that by its nature will
be slower moving than Thursday`s system. This presents us with a
protracted window of moist isentropic ascent beginning perhaps as
early as Saturday morning and continuing through at least Sunday
afternoon with PWAT anomalies ranging from +0.4 to 1.0" - highest
off the Caprock. This uptick in saturation and in particular low
clouds by Saturday afternoon across our southern zones could throw
a monkey wrench in the high temp forecast, especially given a
cool surface high lingering in the TX Panhandle that locks us in
cool easterly winds.

How fast we can saturate the column Saturday afternoon and evening
remains a point of contention among the global models as the GFS and
CMC are considerably faster than the ECMWF. The primary reason for
this is tied to the Pacific front which is stronger on the ECMWF
and as a result is more disruptive to an otherwise open gulf.
While plausible, this solution receives poor support from the
ensemble camps including the 00Z ECE. So for now NBM`s shower
chances look good starting Saturday afternoon in our southern
zones ahead of a spike in rainfall sometime on Sunday as the
upper low rotates across NM and spreads much deeper forcing and a
Pacific front our way. Similar to Thursday, some heavy rain isn`t
out of the question as the environment should possess some
instability at times.

NBM looks too bullish with rain chances for Monday, so these values
were nudged lower to account for the more progressive/drier GEFS and
CMC solutions. Should the upper low remain more balanced with its
vorticity budget over the Desert Southwest on Sunday, then the
slower ECMWF would make sense but for now the majority of models
kick PVA to its east by this time yielding a quicker end to our rain
chances for Monday. The pattern deamplifies thereafter as the low
absorbs into stronger westerly flow over the Midwest leaving us dry
but continued cool for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

VFR overcast will continue through tonight, with increasing chances
for -SHRA overnight. CIGs will lower into MVFR/IFR by the predawn
hours at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW, with IFR CIGs forecast after sunrise
Thursday. -TSRA is also forecast to develop during the overnight
hours, and timing will continue to be refined for TEMPO and/or
prevailing groups in forthcoming cycles.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...09