Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
002 FXUS64 KLUB 201746 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1146 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1145 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 - Shower and storm chances increasing later this afternoon and evening along a cold front. - A brief severe storm is possible through this evening. - Dry Friday and most of Saturday, then wetter Saturday night and Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1145 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Rainfall this morning proved far more selective than we had hoped, but we`re still keeping the faith for rain chances later today as forcing ramps up. Satellite imagery at 17Z placed an upper low south of Gallup, NM and this remains on track to propagate over northern NM as a negatively-tilted trough by this evening. The surface map placed a well-definied stationary front from Andrews- Lubbock-Clarendon with a weak surface low near Andrews, and a Pacific front in far eastern NM. While most of the forecast area late this morning is stuck in a broad zone of subsidence between two main axes of lift (one in the TX Panhandle with another from N TX to the Edwards Plateau), we expect this to change through the afternoon and early evening as the base of the trough rotates northeast from GDP to LBB accompanied by a Pacific front. Strong height falls with an uptick in low-level convergence along the front should be enough to trigger another round of convection that moves swiftly northeast within 30-40 knots of steering flow. One concern is a layer of drier theta-e from 800 to 850 mb currently advecting northeast from the western Permian Basin on 30+ knots of SW flow. This dry layer appears to be the culprit for the general downturn in simulated convection per CAMs once the front reaches the Caprock, before convection amplifies off the Caprock as it encounters richer PWATs approaching 1.2" and improved surface-based instability. However, current MUCAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg off the Caprock are unlikely to survive fully intact once the front arrives there near or just after sunset. So while we can`t rule out a severe wind or hail event off the Caprock through early evening, the overall event looks to be more tame with only brief downpours thanks to such speedy storm motions. NBM`s generous PoPs through this evening were modified for this thinking. Clouds clear from W-E tonight as dry slotting deepens south of the upper low ejecting from northern NM into KS by daybreak. As the surface low leaves our area for southern KS tomorrow morning, a pre- frontal trough will drop south from the TX Panhandle through the day ahead of a northerly cold front by Friday evening. Despite clear skies, high temps won`t be too different than today. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1145 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Friday evening begins with a cold front crawling south over the region ahead of a chilly surface high that reaches the far SW TX Panhandle by Saturday morning. NBM lows look suspiciously mild for this setup compared to MOS, so temps were dragged lower by a few degrees across the board. This surface ridge is now favored to drive farther south on Saturday which ultimately delays our return flow ahead of a bowling ball low crawling across the Baja. Still, this moisture fetch looks to pick up in earnest beginning late Saturday night and continuing through Sunday as gulf moisture streams northwest into eastern NM. Guidance is in much better agreement than 24 hours ago regarding the low`s track and timing, so the general picture still paints the highest rain chances on Sunday before dry slotting fills in on Sunday night and shuts precip down from W-E. Monday through Wednesday remain dry and quiet under broadly cyclonic westerly flow, but temps could get much colder come Wednesday pending the arrival of a strong cold front. NBM`s modest cooldown for Wednesday fits best with the colder GFS, GEFS and CMC solutions despite a much milder ECMWF. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Barring some stray MVFR CIGs this afternoon, VFR will prevail outside of any SHRA or TS. CDS may battle a quick round of TS for the next hour or so before we await another round of SHRA and TS starting west of LBB and PVW and sweeping into CDS toward sunset along a cold front. Precip will quickly end from W-E this evening with mostly light westerly winds overnight and Friday morning. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...93