069
FXUS64 KLZK 240825
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
225 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms will move across the state today into
  Tuesday morning; heavy rainfall and severe weather is possible

- Substantial cool down and drier weather conditions are expected
  Wednesday through Friday

- Decent rain chances return to Arkansas by the upcoming weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Regional WSR-88D radars depicted a complex of showers and
thunderstorms in progress over Cntrl and NE TX, Cntrl and Ern OK, SE
KS, W and NW AR, into SW MO. At the same time, patchy fog,
potentially dense at times, is anticipated over portions of the
state ahead of the precipitation shield. Visibilities could be
reduced to one quarter of a mile or less across NE AR where a Dense
Fog Advisory is currently in effect. Predawn temps were hovering in
the lower 40s to lower 50s.

A potent upper trough and closed low will eject into the Cntrl/Nrn
Plains today. Large scale forcing for ascent will overspread the Srn
MS Valley within background SWrly flow. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to push into AR from the W today and
linger through tonight into Tuesday morning.

Hi-Res CAM guidance denotes an open warm sector attempting to lift
Nwrd into far Srn and SErn AR as a surface low over the Cntrl/Nrn
Plains deepen this afternoon and evening. SPC outlook highlights
portions of Srn and SErn AR with a slight risk of severe storms
Monday afternoon and evening. All modes of severe weather will be
possible if the warm sector does in fact make it into the state.
The primary threats will be damaging winds and large hail.
Additionally, a low-end tornado risk can not be ruled out,
especially along and near the warm front where surface winds back
to the E enhancing 0-1km SRH profiles. HREF joint probabilities
of CAPE >500J/Kg, CIN >-25 J/Kg, and 0-6km bulk wind shear >30 kts
infer the open warm sector will stall between I-20 and the AR/LA
border whereas the LREF ensembles suggest AR/LA border Nwrd 1-2
rows of counties into Srn AR. The middle ground between the
HREF/LREF is nearly identical to the SPC slight risk area.

QPF deterministic forecast is settling in on widespread 1-2"
rainfall with locally higher amounts favored over W and SW AR.
Probabilistic ensemble guidance depicts 40->90% of >1" through
Tuesday, 30-70% of >2" for SW 2/3rds of the state, and a limited
area of 20-40% of >3" over the Ouachita Mtns into the Wrn portions
of the AR River Valley and now includes SW AR. Excessive Rainfall
Outlook for today and tonight highlights an area roughly bound by
the >2" total accumulation with a slight risk of flash flooding.
Comparing total expected rainfall to 1hr, 3hr, and 6hr flash flood
guidance, decided to hold off on a Flood Watch for now as FFG
guidance is expected to be greater than anticipated QPF. Some CAM
guidance is indicating a stripe of locally higher QPF (3-5") but
run to run consistency in placement varies quite a bit, therefore
confidence in any given location receiving this narrow band of
higher rainfall remains low.

A cold front will sweep across the state on Tuesday swiftly ending
precipitation from NW to SE. A secondary, more potent, cold front
will push across the state Wednesday morning. Winds on Wednesday
will be breezy, N/NW at 15-25 mph, thanks to tight PGF in place.
Strong area of high pressure will settle into the region on
Thursday beneath NW flow aloft. Temps will fall below
climatological averages Wednesday through Friday. No rainfall is
expected during this period of time. Low temps could be at or
below freezing across a good portion of the state Thursday and
Friday mornings. High temps Wednesday through Friday should range
from the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Late in the period, upper level flow should briefly transition to
zonal, then become SWrly through the weekend. Potential upper level
energy traversing background SW flow in association with a cold
front should bring unsettled weather condtions back to the state
over the upcoming weekend. Inherently a lot of uncertainty remains
with the latter portion of the forecast so its always best to follow
the forecast as next weekend approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

VFR conds should deteriorate, from NW to SE to MVFR/IFR, through
the morning hours. During the day on Mon, LIFR/IFR conds should
prevail. SHRA/TSRA will increase in coverage from W to E, starting
around 08z, then expand Ewrd reaching all terminals by 15z.
Precip is expected much of the day. Additional TSRA will be
possible in the afternoon over Srn sites. SHRA should begin to
diminish from NW to SE starting in the afternoon at KHRO and KBPK.
Over SE AR, precip should linger through the entire TAF period.
Winds should be E/SE around 10kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     58  52  67  39 / 100  80  10   0
Camden AR         63  56  69  43 /  90  90  10   0
Harrison AR       57  50  63  34 /  90  40   0   0
Hot Springs AR    60  54  67  40 / 100  70   0   0
Little Rock   AR  60  55  68  42 /  90  90  10   0
Monticello AR     68  61  72  46 /  80  90  20   0
Mount Ida AR      60  52  67  39 / 100  60   0   0
Mountain Home AR  57  50  65  35 /  90  60   0   0
Newport AR        58  55  68  41 / 100  90  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     63  56  70  44 /  90 100  10   0
Russellville AR   59  53  68  39 / 100  60   0   0
Searcy AR         59  52  68  39 / 100  90  10   0
Stuttgart AR      61  57  68  43 /  90  90  10   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ005>008-
014>017-024-025.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70