859
FXUS64 KLZK 040520 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1120 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1227 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

 - A brief warmup today before a cold front moves through by
   tonight.

 - Cooler temperatures expected on Thursday with precip most
   likely across southern Arkansas through Thursday night.

 - There is a low chance for a brief period of winter weather
   Thursday.

 - Dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures expected for
   the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1215 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Given the past 24-36 hours of temp and ceiling trends, expect
cooler than NBM temp fcst, w/ high temps struggling to reach or
exceed 40F over much of AR today, w/ the exception being where
clouds may clear acrs NWrn AR. Have kept this trend going forward
into Thurs, with temps lkly once again staying several degrees
below blended base guidance.

In addition to cooler than fcst temps, the precipitation fcst is
still largely uncertain thru the next 24 hrs, as 12Z short term
guidance has trended towards higher PoPs along and behind the
apprchg frnt. This raises the question of impacts of winter
precip, given incrsg potential and an earlier onset time. Both
HRRR/RAP fcst soundings suggest favorable thermal profiles,
alongside higher PoPs, w/ portions of Cntrl AR (mainly along and
north of I40), and the Nrn third of AR in this area of
uncertainty. Wl continue to monitor short term guidance thru the
aftn to evng for trend consistency, w/ confidence of higher
impact winter precip still low attm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Early morning satellite imagery shows an extensive area of stratus
across much of the SE US, including much of eastern Arkansas. This
will have an impact on overnight lows in these areas, while clear
sky conditions elsewhere will allow temperatures to be quite
cool. Additionally, some FG development may be possible across
portions of western and northern Arkansas. With temperatures below
freezing in these areas, any fog would be freezing fog. Will
monitor trends through daybreak in case a dense fog advisory is
necessary.

By this afternoon, temperatures are expected to be a bit warmer as
sfc ridging shifts east of the area and southerly winds are
briefly noted. This will be short lived as a cold front is
expected to move through from later this evening through tonight
which will usher in much cooler temperatures for Thursday.

In the mid-level flow aloft a weak H500 disturbance will move from
the SW US Wednesday evening to just east of Arkansas early Tuesday
morning. A corresponding sfc low will move east along the Gulf
coast with precip spreading north into Arkansas. Precip is most
likely across southern AR Thursday into Thursday night. There
remains a limited threat for a brief period of freezing rain or
light sleet along the northern edge of the precip.

Mostly dry conditions are expected through the end of the period
with slightly warmer temperatures into early next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

While some VFR conditions are noted across the area as of 05z,
widespread IFR and lower conditions are expected through the
period due to low cigs and reduced vsby at times. A cold front
will move through and precip will move across much of the state
through 04/00z. Some occasional SN or PL will be noted at times as
well while RA will be common across southern AR. Winds will
eventually become NE across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     38  29  36  25 /   0   0  20  10
Camden AR         44  36  41  32 /   0  60  80  20
Harrison AR       47  28  34  26 /   0   0  10   0
Hot Springs AR    41  33  39  29 /   0  10  40  10
Little Rock   AR  40  34  38  29 /   0  10  40  10
Monticello AR     42  37  40  34 /   0  60  90  40
Mount Ida AR      42  33  39  29 /   0  10  30  10
Mountain Home AR  45  28  36  24 /   0   0  10   0
Newport AR        38  32  36  28 /   0   0  20  10
Pine Bluff AR     41  34  39  30 /   0  30  60  20
Russellville AR   43  33  40  29 /   0   0  20  10
Searcy AR         39  30  37  27 /   0   0  30  10
Stuttgart AR      40  34  37  31 /   0  20  60  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...67
AVIATION...67