806
FXUS64 KLZK 032322
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
522 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

-Frost is possible over a large part of Arkansas this morning.

-Moderating temperature trend is expected early through late
 week.

-Low end rain chances return towards the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Analyzing surface observations from around the state this morning
and winds were nearly calm or calm and skies were clear.
Temperatures ranged from the lower 30s to lower 40s. Given these
readings already in the lower to middle 30s, a good coverage of
frost is anticipated by daybreak. Winds will switch around to the
SW today ranging from 5-15 mph. Skies will remain clear thanks to
subsidence in place over the region. These two components will
promote temperatures climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Beyond Monday, an upper ridge will settle in across the Gulf
coastal states with H500 flow becoming zonal over a good portion
of the CONUS. At the surface, a departing high will sustain SWrly
flow over the next several days. This will allow a warming trend
with many locations climbing back into the 70s, even approaching
80 degrees in some areas.

By late week a series of upper level shortwaves should dive SEwrd
within background perturbed flow. A weak cold front is expected to
reach the state by Friday, become stationary over Srn AR, then lift
back to the N as a warm front. A few showers are possible with this
front over E and NE AR, then points NEwrd into the Great Lakes
region. Most locations around the state should remain dry.

A secondary much strong front is forecast to move across the state
Saturday night into Sunday bringing additional rain chances to
Arkansas. Much like the last system, E and NE AR have the highest
PoP chances. Even there, PoP chances are not great. Much colder
and drier air will advect into the region on Sunday as an
expansive area of high pressure moves into the Cntrl/Nrn Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

High pressure will dominate through the forecast period resulting
in widespread VFR conditions. Winds be light and variable through
the night before becoming south/southwest on Tuesday and a little
bit gusty across the northern terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     43  72  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         41  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       46  71  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    43  71  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  44  72  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     44  73  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      42  72  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  44  73  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        44  72  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     42  72  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   44  74  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         41  72  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      44  71  46  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...56