120
FXUS64 KLZK 031130
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
530 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

-Frost is possible over a large part of Arkansas this morning.

-Moderating temperature trend is expected early through late
 week.

-Low end rain chances return towards the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Analyzing surface observations from around the state this morning
and winds were nearly calm or calm and skies were clear.
Temperatures ranged from the lower 30s to lower 40s. Given these
readings already in the lower to middle 30s, a good coverage of
frost is anticipated by daybreak. Winds will switch around to the
SW today ranging from 5-15 mph. Skies will remain clear thanks to
subsidence in place over the region. These two components will
promote temperatures climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Beyond Monday, an upper ridge will settle in across the Gulf
coastal states with H500 flow becoming zonal over a good portion
of the CONUS. At the surface, a departing high will sustain SWrly
flow over the next several days. This will allow a warming trend
with many locations climbing back into the 70s, even approaching
80 degrees in some areas.

By late week a series of upper level shortwaves should dive SEwrd
within background perturbed flow. A weak cold front is expected to
reach the state by Friday, become stationary over Srn AR, then lift
back to the N as a warm front. A few showers are possible with this
front over E and NE AR, then points NEwrd into the Great Lakes
region. Most locations around the state should remain dry.

A secondary much strong front is forecast to move across the state
Saturday night into Sunday bringing additional rain chances to
Arkansas. Much like the last system, E and NE AR have the highest
PoP chances. Even there, PoP chances are not great. Much colder
and drier air will advect into the region on Sunday as an
expansive area of high pressure moves into the Cntrl/Nrn Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

SKC conds are expected through the TAF period. Some patchy AM FG
will be possible through 13/14z. Winds today will be W/SW at
around 10 kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     69  44  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         70  42  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       68  46  72  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    69  43  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  68  46  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     70  45  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      72  43  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  68  44  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        68  44  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     68  43  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   71  45  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         69  43  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      67  44  72  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ005>008-
014>017-024-031>033-039-042>045-052>056-062>064-066>069-123-138-
140-141-223-238-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70