622
FXUS64 KMAF 220817
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
217 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 207 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

- An approaching upper-level system brings increasing chances
  (20-70%) of showers and thunderstorms Saturday night through
  Sunday evening. We will be monitoring for isolated strong to
  severe storms over the eastern Permian Basin Sunday afternoon
  and evening.

- A strong cold front brings near to below average temperatures
  to the area by Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 207 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Upper-level ridging largely remains in control of our weather today.
At the surface, an area of high pressure is currently centered over
the central Plains. This is pushing a weak cold front down through
the Panhandle which is expected to drop into our region later this
morning. Temperatures this afternoon warm into the upper 60s to mid
70s.

Throughout the day, the surface high shifts east, allowing moisture
to return to the region. Meanwhile, an upper-level storm system
looks to track from the coast of Baja California into the central
Great Plains today through Monday morning. As this system progresses
toward our region, it will coincide with ample moisture to help ramp
up rain chances later this weekend. Tonight, rain chances shall
range between 10-20% areawide, with temperatures cooling into the
mid 40s to mid 50s. Rain chances increase Sunday ahead of a dryline,
ranging from 20-70%. Those west of the Pecos River will see rain
chances between 20-40%, while areas east of the Pecos will see PoPs
of 40-70% (highest over the northeastern Permian Basin). Given
moderate shear and steep lapse rates, a storm or two may be severe
Sunday afternoon over the eastern Permian Basin, down into the Lower
Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. The main threats with any severe
storms will be large hail and damaging winds. This will require
monitoring. Rain chances begin to taper off west to east Sunday
afternoon heading into the overnight hours.

Westerly/ southwesterly winds will also become breezy to moderately
strong within the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains Sunday afternoon.
However, winds are expected to remain below High Wind criteria.
Otherwise, highs Sunday are forecast to top out in the low to mid
60s across the Permian Basin, much of southeast New Mexico, and the
higher terrain, with 70s for almost everyone else.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 207 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

By Sunday night, an upper low will moving out of the Four Corners
and moving into the Great Plains. Pooled moisture and broad ascent
will allow for rain chances to continue across the region with the
highest chances east of Midland/Odessa in the Permian Basin with
chances tapering off further to the west. Rain amounts continue to
be meager with up to an inch possible for the eastern most counties
and a tenth to quarter inch (or even less) for most other locations.
Once the trough leaves by late Monday, a cold front moves through on
Tuesday. Temperatures tumble down towards normal with most locations
settling into the 30s to low 40s Tuesday and Wednesday night. Highs
struggle to reach 60F in the Permian Basin on Wednesday.

Thanksgiving day continues to look quite nice with near normal
temperatures in the 60s during the afternoon and 40s at night. For
Friday and Saturday, temperatures rebound slightly back above
normal with the pattern remaining dry with rain chances staying
near zero.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

VFR conditions prevail. Light northwesterly to northerly winds
become more easterly by this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  50  64  49 /   0  20  60  60
Carlsbad                 67  50  70  45 /   0  20  60  10
Dryden                   75  57  71  56 /   0  30  40  40
Fort Stockton            74  56  76  50 /   0  20  40  30
Guadalupe Pass           59  47  61  41 /   0  20  40   0
Hobbs                    67  47  65  42 /   0  20  60  20
Marfa                    70  45  71  37 /   0  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport     70  53  66  49 /   0  20  40  40
Odessa                   70  53  66  49 /   0  20  40  30
Wink                     70  53  70  45 /   0  20  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...95