429
FXUS64 KMAF 111904
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
104 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1258 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

- Elevated fire weather conditions continue over the Sacramentos
  and southeast New Mexico.

- Warming trend continues with dry weather into end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1258 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

The short term forecast will be dominated by an upper level ridge
pushing across northern Mexico and into the southern US. Skies will
stay clear and, after today, winds decrease. Overnight lows remain
in the 40s for most with the coldest spots dipping into the upper
30s and areas around Big Bend staying in the low 50s. Wednesday sees
temperatures reach into the upper 70s to low 80s. With the
aforementioned ridge continuing to move across the area, lows move
above normal into the mid to upper 40s. Rain chances remain
low(<5%).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1258 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Mid level ridging returns later this week bringing near record warm
temperatures once again. By Thursday, southwesterly winds develop
across the region in response to lee surface troughing. This
downslope regime will allow high temperatures to soar well into the
80s both Thursday and Friday afternoons. Record highs for those days
at Midland are in jeopardy of being broken (84 on 11/13 and 85 on
33/14).

Once the weekend rolls around attention will turn to a storm system
developing on the West Coast of CA. Southwest flow aloft will
increase as this trough moves east. Temperatures will remain above
normal Saturday, and with strong capping in place, it`ll stay dry
across the region. The latest model runs indicate this storm will
lift north across NM Sunday keeping most of our region within a dry
slot with the best area of ascent well to our north. These same
models have been rather inconsistent regarding this trough so will
continue to keep an eye on it as we get closer. A Pacific front will
follow the passage of the trough helping knock temperatures back
down toward normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Southwesterly winds continue through the TAF period with speeds
sitting around 10-15kts with occasional gusts. VFR continues at
all terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 119 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Gusty 20-ft winds across SE NM along with min RH values below 15%,
fuel ERCs in the 50th-74th percentile, and warmer than average
temperatures will continue through the afternoon. Exercise
caution in discarding any flammables and outdoor burning, and
avoid driving or parking on dry grass.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               43  77  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 46  79  43  85 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   44  82  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            50  80  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           48  71  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    42  77  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    39  78  41  80 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     44  77  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   44  77  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     41  79  41  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...93