858
FXUS64 KMAF 211112
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
512 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 511 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

- Rain chances return Saturday and Sunday. Areas west of
  Midland/Odessa see PoPs of 10-40% and to the east 40-60%.

- A strong cold front brings near to below average temperatures
  to the area by Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 136 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Cooler temperatures settle in behind an upper-level low tracking
northeast through the Great Plains. Highs Friday warm into the mid
60s to mid 70s across the region. With the departing upper trough,
surface high pressure develops over the central Plains, sending
another cold front into our area Friday night. Temperatures Friday
night cool into the mid 30s to mid 40s. Saturday, the front slows
down and becomes stalled within the southern portions of our region.
Low (10-20%) rain chances accompany the stalled front over the Lower
Trans Pecos Saturday afternoon. Saturday`s highs again rise into the
mid 60s to mid 70s. Flow aloft transitions from zonal to
southwesterly ahead of another upper low approaching off the coast
of Baja California. More details on this system`s impacts in the
long term discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 136 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

A large upper low moves in from the Pacific late Saturday night and
gradually moves into the Desert Southwest. Moisture pools across
central and west Texas as low level southeast flow develops on
Sunday. The proximity of the low and the increased moisture will
lead to better rain chances Saturday night through Sunday. The best
chances will be across the eastern Permian Basin and tapering off to
the west. By Monday, the upper low moves into the Great Plains and
begins to move to the northeast. A cold front is ushered into the
region by late Tuesday and temperatures tumble below normal with
many areas in the 30s and highs on Wednesday struggling to reach 60F
in most locations.

This frontal passage will be dry. Beyond the rain chances this
weekend, the long term forecast remains dry. Though Thanksgiving is
a week away, the ensembles are beginning to show what looks to be
like a near normal late November day for West Texas and southeast
New Mexico. Highs in the 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 511 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  42  69  51 /   0   0  10  40
Carlsbad                 69  38  66  50 /   0   0   0  40
Dryden                   78  51  73  58 /   0   0  20  40
Fort Stockton            73  45  73  56 /   0   0  10  30
Guadalupe Pass           57  42  59  47 /   0   0   0  40
Hobbs                    67  37  66  47 /   0   0  10  40
Marfa                    66  37  70  44 /   0   0  10  30
Midland Intl Airport     69  43  69  53 /   0   0  10  30
Odessa                   69  43  69  53 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                     69  39  70  53 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...95