672
FXUS64 KMEG 111711
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1111 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1110 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

- Arctic air will bring the coldest temperatures of the season
  from Saturday night through Monday, with wind chills dropping
  into the teens and single digits Sunday and Sunday mornings.

- Temperatures will warm quickly to near-normal by Tuesday,
  increasing rain chances for the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1110 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Strong northwest flow is in place across the Midsouth. A
gradually weakening surface low (currently 1003mb) will approach
the middle Mississippi River valley Friday morning as a 1010mb
system.  A cold front associated with this low will  sweep across
the Midsouth during the day Friday.  Ahead of the front, high
temperatures tomorrow will be in the 50s to low 60s. The post-
frontal airmass in continental in nature, so it will be cooler
Saturday, but a secondary arctic front will usher in a bitterly
cold air mass Saturday night. There is a chance of rain (20-50%)
generally along and south of I-40 as the secondary front crosses
Saturday evening, but precipitation should shift into central
Mississippi before the colder air arrives. Therefore no freezing
of frozen precipitation is expected. The air mass arriving
Saturday night will originate from north central Canada and
feature widespread single digit dewpoints and even some below zero
across the region. Additionally, north winds between 10 and 15
mph will result in apparent temperatures between -1 and 5 along
and north of the I-40 corridor.

A 1044mb surface high will track from the Central Plains Sunday
morning to the Appalachians by Monday, skirting just north of the
Midsouth along its path. As a result, winds will weaken
considerably Sunday night and apparent temperatures should be in
the teens.  Monday mornings low temperatures are expected to
range from 11-18 degrees, but there is about a 10% chance
(reasonable worst case scenario) that that range could be between
6 and 13 degrees.   High temperatures Sunday will remain in the
20s across most of the Midsouth.

Warmer temperatures return fairly quickly early next week as
return flow strengthens across the central and lower Mississippi
River Valley. All of the Midsouth should warm above freezing
Monday, but most of the region will remain in the 40s. By Tuesday
afternoon, temperatures will return to near normal as an upper
level ridge will begin to center over the Mississippi Valley.
While the southerly flow will bring warmer temperatures back to
the forecast, it will also bring the return of moisture and
increase rain chances beginning Tuesday night and continuing
through midweek.

JDS

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1110 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Confidence is high (90-100%) for VFR conditions are expected over
the next 24-30 hours. Light winds this morning are expected to
develop and increase to 8-10 kts this afternoon into tonight at
MEM, JBR, and eventually at MKL. There is high confidence (80-
90%) of LLWS at all TAF sites tonight shear of a cold front. LLWS
will linger longest (through 13-14Z) at MKL and TUP. Winds will
gradually veer to the NW on tomorrow as the front moves through.
No precipitation is expected.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1110 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Southerly winds will return this afternoon. A slight increase in
moisture should keep minimum relative humidity values around 40%
or greater. An arctic cold front will cross the area Saturday
evening bringing very dry and cool air. Minimum RH values
beginning Sunday will hover around 30%.



&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...JDS