581
FXUS64 KMEG 191709
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1209 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

A building ridge of high pressure will bring very hot temperatures
to the Mid-South for the remainder of the week into the upcoming
weekend. Afternoon highs are expected to be in the 90s with middle
to upper 90s possible towards the weekend. A weak back door cold
front may bring some temporary relief with isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms for late weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

00Z upper air analysis and GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends
show a 597 dm upper-level ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic
states with a longwave upper-level trough located over the western
United States. A plume of tropical moisture continues to advect
up into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valleys in between
these two synoptic features. A warm and humid airmass remains in
place across the Mid-South this morning with temperatures in the
70s and surface dewpoints in the lower 70s.

The aforementioned upper-level ridge axis will continue to build
across the region today and into the upcoming weekend. An
isolated rain shower is possible west of the Mississippi River
this morning but confidence remains too low to mention any pops
at this time as low to mid-level dry air filters into the area.
Temperatures should warm into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees
today despite some high clouds being present. Rain chances will
remain minimal at best into the upcoming weekend with very warm
mid-level temperatures and the presence of a capping inversion.
NAEFS mean temperatures will average between 1-2 standard
deviations above normal during this period. Afternoon highs will
be mostly in the lower to middle 90s with nightly lows in the 70s.

Long-term operational and ensemble models indicate a weak back
door cold front may drop into portions of the Lower Mississippi
Sunday into Sunday night. Pooling low-level moisture combined with
the very hot temperatures in the middle to perhaps upper 90s may
result in afternoon heat index values approaching Heat Advisory
criteria around 105 degrees across portions of the area on Sunday.
This front may also bring the potential for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms along with slightly lower temperatures.
Temperatures are expected to increase back into the upper 90s by
early next week as an upper-level ridge over the Southern Plains
builds east into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

High pressure will prevail through the period, allowing for VFR
CIGs and light winds. Overnight, winds will veer east before
returning to southeast flow by midday Thursday. Otherwise, no
aviation impacts are anticipated.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...ANS