432
FXUS64 KMEG 240455
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1055 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1054 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast on Monday,
  lasting into Tuesday. A few storms may become strong to severe
  Tuesday afternoon.

- Sunny conditions will return by Wednesday and last through most
  of Friday. High temperatures will generally remain in the 50s,
  with near to below freezing temperatures on Thanksgiving
  morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1054 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

As of 10 PM, surface observations depict areas of dense fog along
and north of the I-40 corridor. Degraded visibilities will expand
slightly south tonight, but should remain north of the TN/MS
border. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 10AM.

An unsettled weather pattern will emerge today as a large upper
level low treks across the Plains, bringing showers and
thunderstorms back to the Mid-South late this afternoon. A
Marginal Risk for severe storms is in place for portions of north
Mississippi today. However, the severe weather parameter space is
lacking sufficient moisture and destabilization. In addition, the
00Z HREF paints a less than 5 percent chance of overlapping
severe ingredients through this evening. The more likely
precipitation mode today will be a large rain shield with
embedded, non-severe thunderstorms. This activity will persist
through the overnight hours, eventually exiting the area early
Tuesday.

Severe weather chances are increasing for Tuesday as the
aforementioned system ejects a cold front into the Mid-South. The
precise location of a corresponding warm sector will vary
depending on how quickly the front moves into the area. The RRFS
depicts about a 40 percent chance of SBCAPE exceeding 500 J/kg in
northeast MS by Tuesday afternoon. At this time, dewpoints will
surge into the low and mid 60s. If storms fire in this region,
damaging winds and large hail cannot be ruled out. However, the
greater severe risk does appear to be further southeast into
Alabama. A Marginal Risk for severe storms is in place for
Tuesday.

A cold and dry Thanksgiving is on tap for the Mid-South as a
reinforcing front ushers in a Continental Polar airmass on
Wednesday. Both Thursday and Friday mornings will feature
freezing temperatures for the majority of the area, with highs
struggling to reach 50 degrees on either day. Unfortunately, the
cold weather will not stick around for long as a shortwave
arrives next weekend, bringing another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the Mid-South.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1054 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Clear skies and light winds are expected to result in patchy fog
or BR near MKL tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail
across the airspace overnight. A deepening trough shifting out of
the Plains will bring the next round of rain, with light rain (-
SHRA) arriving in east Arkansas before midday tomorrow and
increasing in coverage/intensity during the late afternoon hours.
This activity is tied to the approach of a warm front. Showers
should reach TUP by 24/20Z. Pressure falls and increasing
moisture ahead of the frontal system will cause Cigs near JBR to
fall to MVFR before 24/24Z. While low confidence exists in
development, there is a 20% to 30% probability of thunderstorms
developing at all sites overnight as the cold front passes, with
the best chance in the early morning hours. IFR cigs will likely
accompany the heavier rain showers and thunderstorms late tomorrow
evening and overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1050 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Fire weather concerns will remain minimal through midweek as
MinRH values remain above 40 percent. Wetting rains will return
today and last into Tuesday evening. Dry and cool conditions
return Wednesday, but 20ft winds will remain light.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for ARZ009-018-026>028.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>052-054-055.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...JDS