Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 051702

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1102 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Updated to include the 18z aviation discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1015 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/

UPDATE...Morning Update.

Updated Pops and Weather based on Radar trends and short term
model guidance. Rain seems to be holding a bit farther than
expected today...although widespread rain is still expected
tonight. Temperatures look to be on track. Highs will be in the
middle 40s to low 50s.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/

A large upper level low pressure system over northern Mexico will
lift northeast across the Lower Mississippi River Valley through
Tuesday morning. This upper low will take on an increasingly
negative tilt with time helping to induce surface low pressure
along the Upper Texas Coast later today. This surface low will
also lift northeast across the Mid South later tonight while
modestly deepening. Most of the model guidance has shifted further
southeast with the surface low track which should keep the quality
unstable warm sector to the southeast of our area. This will also
keep any severe weather threat to our southeast overnight. Despite
this fact...periods of moderate to at times heavy rainfall will
occur across much of the region. A few inches of rain will be
likely...especially across northeast Mississippi...which will help
to further alleviate the ongoing drought conditions. Rumbles of
thunder will also occur as mid level lapse rates steepen tonight
helping to increase elevated instability. Rain and a few
thunderstorms will linger into Tuesday morning before shifting
east of the region by afternoon. Temperatures should remain cool
as low level northeast to north flow continues through today and
tonight...becoming northwesterly on Tuesday.

Mainly dry weather can be expected Tuesday night into much of
Wednesday as surface high pressure builds. Temperatures will
remain seasonably cool as northeast low level flow returns.

By Wednesday night...a broad upper level trough and associated
arctic cold front will push across the area. Lift over top of the
frontal slope should squeeze out lingering moisture behind the
front as much colder air filters southward. Light rain on
Wednesday evening may gradually change over to a period of light
snow or flurries late Wednesday night before ending Thursday
morning across southern areas. No accumulations or travel problems
are anticipated at this time as ground temperatures still remain
rather warm. This will simply help to remind us that it is
December...following the warm weather conditions experienced this

Much colder arctic air will infiltrate the Mid South for the end
of the week with high temperatures remaining in the 30s areawide
with lows in the teens and lower 20s. Dry weather conditions can
also be expected for Thursday and Friday. High pressure will shift
east by Saturday with the beginning of a slow warming trend.

A series of low amplitude upper level shortwaves will move across
the Mid South by next weekend with increasing moisture and
isentropic ascent developing across the area. Light precipitation
should redevelop across the region by Saturday night. Cold
temperatures across northern portions of the region may support a
wintry mix for several hours with the onset of precipitation
before warmer temperatures advect northward. Elsewhere...temperatures
should warm sufficiently to produce all liquid precipitation
Saturday night. Temperatures should warm further on Sunday under
continued warm air and moisture advection from the south. This
should result in warmer high temperatures on Sunday with continued
wet weather. This wet and slightly warmer pattern should continue
into the first part of next week.



/18z TAFs/

Poor flight conditions are expected across the Mid-South over the
next 24 hours. An area of light rain continues over north MS this
afternoon, but additional showers will increase in coverage this
evening and persist throughout the overnight hours. IFR to low-end
MVFR ceilings are anticipated this afternoon, deteriorating to
around 500 ft (or potentially lower at times) after sunset.
Visibilities may be diminished as well tonight, but should remain
above 1 mile in most cases. An occasional rumble of thunder is not
out of the question overnight, but this potential is too low to
carry in the TAFs at this time. Conditions will be slow to improve
Tuesday morning, although the coverage of precipitation is
expected to decrease after 12z.





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