National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KMEG 100542
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1142 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

/ISSUED 923 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/

UPDATE...

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO LOWER SKY COVER AND INCREASE LOWS
A FEW DEGREES.

DISCUSSION...

BRISK AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.

AT 915 PM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...COLD CONDITIONS
WERE OCCURRING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH ALLOWED FOR WIND CHILL VALUES MAINLY IN THE
TEENS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A SURFACE
LOW WAS OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO OKLAHOMA.

REST OF TONIGHT...CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. INCREASED LOWS
A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AS THINK GRADIENT WINDS WILL STAY UP
10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT...REGARDLESS OF CLOUD
COVER...KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. THINK LOWS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 16 TO 24 DEGREE RANGE. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ZERO AND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

CLOUD COVER MAY BE TRICKY. THINK SOME CLOUDS WILL FILL IN TO AREAS
NORTH OF A JONESBORO ARKANSAS TO JACKSON TENNESEE LINE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH FEWER CLOUDS SOUTH. WITH VERY COLD AIR AIR IN
PLACE...ANY CLOUD WITH HAVE ICE NUCLEI...THUS COULD PRODUCE VERY
LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES. KEPT LOW CHANCES OF SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS WILL FILL IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT.

PLAN ON HAVING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL MAP AND PNS FROM THE FEBRUARY
8-9 WINTER STORM ON OUR WEBSITE BY 10 PM.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/

CURRENTLY...THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA. PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH BRISK
W/NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SNOW COVER TO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ARE RAPIDLY MOVING BACK
INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AS A DEEP 500 MB
LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. CLOUDS
AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN RATHER TIGHT SO WINDS WILL RATHER BRISK AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL PREVENT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING THOUGH
WILL STILL GO A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE THANKS TO SNOW COVER
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID
AND UPPER TEENS NORTH TO LOWER AND MID 20S ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
CONTINUING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTHEAST TO
MID 20S SOUTHWEST. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE 12Z GFS TRACKS THE LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO WHICH LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THE PUSHES ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH. THE 12Z ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW FURTHER AND CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES ACROSS MAINLY NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE FORECAST AS IS. EITHER WAY THIS WILL BE A LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND GENERALLY
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS IN THE 40S. A FAST
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE SO INCREASED POPS A LITTLE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE SNOW WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL TURN MUCH COLDER AND BRISK
ON SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS WITH MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK. VERY LONG RANGE....MAY SEE A BRIEF WARM UP TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MORE COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. FOR THE
TIME BEING...EXPECT THE MVFR CLOUDS TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH ONLY
SCT CLOUDS OVER THE TAF AREA. MODERATE W-NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

SWC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  22  32  21  37 /   0   0  10  10
MKL  18  31  17  35 /  10   0  10  10
JBR  20  31  18  33 /   0   0  10  10
TUP  23  40  23  41 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$