Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 221748
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1147 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

THE STORM PREDICTION HAS REMOVED THE MRGL THUNDER RISK FROM NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE HWO. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED
IN THE ZONES. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH CONTINUED
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS PROVIDING INCREASED LOW
CLOUDS TO THE MIDSOUTH ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE. EXPECT PATCHY
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
TODAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
BEFORE STALLING IN THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP AND
RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGH TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL EXTEND THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FLURRY POSSIBLE NEAR THE KY BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A SFC HIGH WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST CHRISTMAS DAY PROVIDING
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY PROVIDING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER
AND DRIER.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

SOUTHERLY WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING
AT ALL TAF SITES. CIGS RANGING FROM LOWER MVFR TO LIFR AND -SHRA
OR VCSH EXPECTED AT ALL SITES AS PVA-INDUCED LIFT ROTATES ACROSS.

12Z GUIDANCE IS SLOWER AND LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE
AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN TO TAF SITES. WILL DELAY WIND SHIFT AND
CIG/VIS IMPROVEMENTS A FEW HOURS AT MEM/JBR. CIGS MAY HOLD IN AT
MKL/TUP THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE...AS LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS
FRONT OFF UNTIL NEAR 12Z TUE.

GW

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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