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000
FXUS64 KMEG 171139
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
639 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated to include the 12z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 233 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A line of showers with scattered embedded thunderstorms currently
stretches from just south of St. Louis to Tulsa, Oklahoma. The
line is ahead of a cold front. The line of convection will sink
into Northeast Arkansas over the next couple of hours. Expect the
line to continue to diminish as it pushes into the CWA.
Redevelopment is likely this afternoon as the cold front pushes
into the Mid-South. With a very moist airmass in place, expect
showers and thunderstorms to become numerous across much of the
area. Can`t rule out a few of these storms becoming strong to
severe. The clouds and convection will keep highs generally in the
mid to upper 80s thus heat indices should remain below 105 degrees
despite the high dewpoints.

Lingering convection will occur along and south of I-40 during the
evening hours and may continue over portions of North Mississippi
into the overnight hours as the front slowly pushes to the south.

Drier air will filter into the Mid-South on Friday behind the
front. Although, will continue small POPS across the extreme
southern portion of the CWA as the front will still be in the
vicinity of the area.

Models still indicate that a MCS will develop somewhere in the
area of Western Missouri, Southeast Kansas, Northeast Oklahoma,
and Northwest Arkansas Friday evening. The MCS will track to the
southeast thanks to upper pattern being in northwest flow aloft.
The complex could skirt Eastern Arkansas by early Saturday
Morning. Will continue with 20-30 POPS for this area. Depending on
the exact track, convection from the complex could continue to
affect portions of the Mid-South into the later morning hours on
Saturday.

Expect more diurnal based convection for the rest of the weekend
into early next week as a weak upper ridge builds over the area.
Another cold front will then move into the Mid-South Tuesday Night
into Wednesday bringing increased chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Highs will generally be in the upper 80s to lower
90s.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
/12z TAFs/

IFR ceilings have been expanding north and east across the CWA
early this morning. These low ceilings will persist throughout the
morning hours, but should slowly lift into MVFR and eventually VFR
category by early afternoon. An area of showers and thunderstorms
currently located over AR will move east today, providing a few
hours of enhanced rain chances at each terminal. Thunder will be
possible on station, but was only carried in vicinity for now.
Improving conditions expected this afternoon and evening, but
there is some hint that MVFR ceilings could develop tonight as a
weak cold front moves across the area.

Johnson

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$