Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 010505
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1205 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. CURRENTLY NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS SEVERE WEATHER JUST TO THE
WEST. IT IS MOVING TOWARD NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THESE MAY BE
SEVERE...HOWEVER...CURRENT CONDITIONS INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE IS
MORE STABLE OVER THE MID-SOUTH THAN CENTRAL ARKANSAS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR STORMS.

LOWERED POPS THIS EVENING FOR NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TILL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT IT IS POSSIBLE FOR
SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP.

ALSO THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IN SOME
AREAS...SO INCLUDED THAT IN MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI.

TLSJR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT RADAR IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STRETCHING FROM NEAR BATESVILLE AND OXFORD SOUTH TO THE GULF
COAST. MORE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROTATE INTO
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THE
LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AROUND 7 PM. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
ALSO BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THIS PATTERN AND DIFFERENCES
BEGIN ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. THE NAM
STALLS THE FRONT FROM PARIS TO MEMPHIS WHILE THE GFS STALLS IT
FURTHER SOUTH. WHEREVER THE FRONT STALLS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FROM MEMPHIS SOUTHWARD.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN SHIFTING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE
FRONT.

BEYOND TUESDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROF WILL SET UP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE TROF WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CUT OFF INTO AN UPPER
LOW. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WHICH WILL KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND
70 TO THE MID 70S. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING EASTWARD ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP BACK TO NORMAL.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT EACH OF
THE 4 TAFS SITES DUE TO DEVELOPING FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT NEAR THE SURFACE AND LIGHT WINDS HAS ALREADY
ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BEFORE
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS CAUSED IT TO DISSIPATE. LOOK FOR FOG TO
REDEVELOP AS WINDS SUBSIDE. VISBYS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TOMORROW
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW CAUSING
WINDS TO TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
KTUP.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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