Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 010806
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
306 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Across the Midsouth early this morning skies were generally partly
cloudy with a few isolated showers and storms...mainly to the
west and south of Memphis. In addition...a few stations were
reporting light fog. Winds were calm or light from the south with
temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s.

For today through Saturday...general upper level troughing over
the central U.S. will continue to drive two cold fronts through
the Midsouth this period with the first front reaching the northern
counties by late this afternoon. Besides the spotty activity this
morning...convection coverage should increase with the approach
of the front and the slight strengthening of the mid and upper
level winds...though the low level flow will remain weak. On the
flipside dewpoints near 70F will surge pockets of CAPE in excess
of 2500 j/kg. Though SPC keeps the Marginal Risk in the Midwest
today...a few storms in the Midsouth may reach severe limits.
Models indicate the greatest storm coverage in the 21-02z time
frame...but mesoscale influences such as merging outflows and
potential cold pools could keep storms going well into the night.
Temperatures today will top out in the mid and upper 80s.

Model solutions for tomorrow place the surface front across
central Mississippi...but the slope is shallow...so the 850mb
upper front will hold back in our area. Overrunning from the
midlevel southwest flow out of Texas will keep disturbances and a
fetch of mid/upper level moisture aimed at the region. Elevated
showers and storms are likely to march northeast out of the
ARLATEX in the morning...reaching the Tennessee River by
afternoon. This pattern is expected to continue both Friday and
Saturday with a cool low level northeast/east flow. An isolated
strong storm is possible...but the severe threat looks to be
farther south near the surface front. Highs will fall into the
upper 70s to mid 80s and hold there through Saturday before the
second and stronger front sweeps through the area. This boundary
will be driven from an early spring-like continental airmass
originating from Canada.

Sunday through Wednesday...a very tranquil period with drier air
pushing the threat for rain out of the region on Sunday. A strong
northwest flow aloft...decent for early June...will drop
dewpoints into the 50s and low 60s. Temperatures will also lower
about five degrees through Monday. A slight moderation in
temperatures will return next Tuesday...but overall very
comfortable humidity and light northerly breezes are anticipated.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z Taf Set

Models have come into better agreement on the development of a
line of showers and thunderstorms moving through the region during
the day tomorrow from west to east ahead of a surface front. There
was enough confidence to introduce prevailing thunderstorm groups
at all 4 TAF sites. In the nearer term, MVFR fog may develop at
KMKL and KTUP early tomorrow morning due to weak surface winds and
a high moisture content near the surface.

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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