Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 031522
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1022 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO WHERE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH
DEW POINTS ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. ADDITIONALLY...WE ARE
NOT SEEING THE CONVECTION IN THE WAY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS...AS WELL
AS HEAT INDICES TO BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN WE SAY YESTERDAY. NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR INCREASINGLY
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN
100 AND 105 DEGREES. AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
VERY WARM ALONG WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO BEST DEFINE THE EVENTUAL
THREATS. PLAN TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
TRIGGER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IN MOST LOCATIONS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...SO HAVE
ADDED POPS TO THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO SW/W WINDS BETWEEN 5-8 KTS TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT
AFTER 04/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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