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000
FXUS64 KMEG 192303
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
603 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. TONIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AND WARM AS COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL ONLY MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY WHICH KEEP THINGS DRY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL INCH CLOSER TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY REACH
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN
ARKANSAS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS MUCH OF ARKANSAS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE 12Z ECMWF MODELS SHOWS THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE SOME. BY THURSDAY...THE COLD
FRONT STALLS OUT OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI LEAVING A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN NEXT SUNDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE
MUCH RAIN. TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SPREAD NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP WITH CONDS
BECOMING VFR AFT 20/16Z. SOUTH WINDS AT 7-12 KTS TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY
AT KJBR AND KMEM.

SJM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  72  89  72  86 /  10  10  30  40
MKL  69  89  70  85 /  10  10  20  30
JBR  70  87  70  83 /  10  20  40  50
TUP  69  90  69  88 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$