Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 250153
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
753 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS EVENING AS LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK
UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

TVT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1028 MB RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
AND IS BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AT MANY
LOCATIONS. RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY IS THE FOCUS IN THIS AFTERNOON/S
FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/S BY SUNDAY. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE MID
SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-40 WHERE BETTER FORCING WILL EXIST. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF SUNDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BACK TO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. WENT WITH LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME
AS THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS.

CJC

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

VFR AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THIS EVENING.
LATEST HRRR AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWED A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CIGS AT TUP. IF WINDS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE THERE... MAY SEE SOME
GROUND FOG LATE OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE ARRIVES SUNDAY. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL MOST AREAS...
OWING TO INITIALLY DRY LAYER BELOW FL150.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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