Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 270404

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1104 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

.UPDATE... /issued 718 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/

A shortwave trough is moving east across the Midwestern states
this evening, with attendance synoptic scale forcing for ascent
overspreading the Mid-South. Moisture return has been modest
across the area, but it has been sufficient to produce a band of
showers, and a few thunderstorms, across northeast AR. This band
will move east across the Mississippi River over the next few
hours, but is expected to weaken with time as the boundary layer
cools and stabilizes. Rain chances continue area wide throughout
the overnight hours, but rain fall amounts are not expected to be
significant. Thunder was retained for most areas north of I-40.
PoPs were increased over northeast AR, the MO Bootheel, and
extreme northwest TN this evening. Otherwise, forecast changes
were minimal.



.DISCUSSION... /issued 315 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/

A relatively persistent forecast that can be summed up: warm and
dry. Elevated wildfire danger will remain the primary concern.

Mid afternoon GOES water vapor imagery showed a well-defined
shortwave trof over the Ozark Plateau. Extensive mid and high
cloudiness was noted on GOES visible imagery in advance of the this
feature. An associated linear MCS over the central plains early
this morning weakened into a broken line of showers entering
northwest AR at midafternoon. Today`s 12Z LZK sounding was very
dry below 400mb, suggesting convection was weakening as it
encountered drier air. Expect some midlevel moistening with the
approach of the shortwave and associated precip evaporation. By
late evening into the early overnight, NAM Bufr soundings show
sufficient sub-cloud layer RH for some of the rain to make it to
the ground. Where rain occurs, it should be light and likely
non-measurable in places.

The aforementioned shortwave exits to the east on Thursday,
leaving the Midsouth under light northwest flow aloft. An upper
level height ridge over Texas will flatten and expand eastward
into the lower MS River valley and southeast U.S. through the
weekend. Temperatures will continue well above average, with
southerly breezes and daytime highs in the 80s for most of the

The 12Z GFS and ECMWF models amplify the upper level ridge over
the MS River valley early next week, in advance of height falls
over the Rocky Mountains. GFS and ECMWF begin to differ on timing
of these height falls early on, but both depict the energy passing
far enough to the north to have little effect on the upper level
pattern over the Midsouth. By midweek, both models depict 588dm
500mb heights over the Midsouth, that moderate only slightly by
late next week. In other words, continued warm and dry for the
first several days of November.




06Z TAF Set

A band of light rain ahead of a cold front will move into KMEM
shortly and KMKL over the next 1-2 hours. The band is expected to
dissipate as it pushes further east. Do not expect any reduction
in VSBYs and CIGs with the rain. However, MVFR CIGS are occurring
behind the front across Missouri, but expect by the time the CIGS
move into the Mid-South they may be lifting. Thus have mentioned
OVC030 at KJBR but above 3000 ft everywhere else. Scattered
showers will continue to pop up over NE AR for the next couple of
hours as the front approaches thus will continue mention of VCSH
wording at KJBR. Light SW winds will occur ahead of the front.
Winds will turn to the WNW behind the front with speeds possibly
increasing to 7-8 KTS before diminishing after 00Z.





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