National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KMEG 052344
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
544 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013/

DISCUSSION...

..MAJOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

WINTER STORM BEGINNING TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF RANDOLPH COUNTY AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO 32 DEGREES THUS TURNING RAIN OVER
TO FREEZING RAIN. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 79 DEGREES IN ABERDEEN MISSISSIPPI TO
34 DEGREES IN WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO
AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO REMAIN
LOCATED FROM NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE COLD
FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED THROUGH ABERDEEN THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BE IN THE 50S BY THE NEXT OBSERVATION.

THE HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL DUMP AROUND AN
INCH OF ICE FROM THE JONESBORO ARKANSAS TO DYERSBURG TENNESSEE
CORRIDOR. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE FOR
MUCH OF THE EVENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
RANDOLPH...LAWRENCE...CLAY...AND GREENE COUNTIES IN ARKANSAS WHERE
THE DEPTH OF THE COLDER AIR MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO TURN FREEZING RAIN
OVER TO SLEET AND POSSIBLY OVER TO SNOW AT THE TAIL END OF THE
STORM.

EXPECT THE FREEZING LINE TO REACH A LINE FROM JONESBORO ARKANSAS TO
DYERSBURG TENNESSEE BETWEEN 9 PM-MIDNIGHT. BETWEEN 3AM-7AM...PRECIP
WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER FROM PARIS TENNESSEE...TO COVINGTON
TENNESSEE...TO WYNNE ARKANSAS. BY 9 AM...RAIN WILL BE CHANGING OVER
TO FREEZING RAIN IN MEMPHIS AND JACKSON TENNESSEE. AFTER NOON
TIME...RAIN WILL BEGIN CHANGING OVER FROM CLARKSDALE MISSISSIPPI TO
NEAR DECATURVILLE TENNESSEE. FOR THE REST OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN RAIN WITH POSSIBLY A
BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN RIGHT BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

AS FOR TOTAL AMOUNTS...EXPECT A QUARTER INCH OF ICE WITH 2-3 INCHES
OF SLEET AND POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW TO OCCUR ACROSS
RANDOLPH...LAWRENCE..CLAY...AND GREENE COUNTIES. FROM JONESBORO...TO
UNION CITY INCLUDING AREAS NEAR KENNETT...CARUTHERSVILLE...AND
DYERSBURG...DEVASTATING ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH A HALF INCH UP TO 2 INCHES OF SLEET. FROM FORREST
CITY...TO MEMPHIS...TO JACKSON EXPECT A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF
ICE WITH POSSIBLY A TRACE OF SLEET AT THE TAIL END OF THE
PRECIPITATION. FOR NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TO NEAR DECATURVILLE
TENNESSEE...EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH TO UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF
ICE. NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL RECEIVE LITTLE IF ANY ICE
ACCUMULATIONS.

WILL CONVERT WINTER STORM WARNING OVER TO ICE STORM WARNING FOR
CROSS...POINSETT...CRAIGHEAD COUNTIES IN ARKANSAS AS WELL AS THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND LAUDERDALE...DYER...LAKE AND OBION COUNTIES IN
TENNESSEE. FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
TYPE THUS WANTED TO HAVE WARNING FOCUS ON ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

EXPECT THE ICE TO ACCUMULATE MAINLY ON TREES AND POWER LINES AS ROAD
TEMPERATURES MAY TAKE AWHILE TO DROP TO BELOW FREEZING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES DUE TO THE RECENT WARM WEATHER.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION WILL END LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS. PRECIPITATION WILL END BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS MEMPHIS AND
BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

SATURDAY WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER
20S.

A SECOND ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST. WITH
COLD AIR IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA INITIALLY.
TEMPERATURES COULD WARM UP ON SUNDAY CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION TO
RAIN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER...IT WILL DEPEND ON WHAT
ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR FROM THIS FIRST STORM WHICH MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN MODELS ARE PREDICTING. AT LEAST MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE. STAY TUNED.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION OVER THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY IFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING AT TAF SITES AND LIFR CONDITIONS AT JBR/TUP AROUND AFTER
06/06-08Z. FREEZING RAIN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT JBR
WITH RAIN GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO FZRA AT MEM AROUND 06/14Z AND
MKL AROUND 06/15Z. NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO BETWEEN 18-22 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  33  33  20  30 / 100 100  30  10
MKL  33  33  19  30 / 100 100  40  10
JBR  27  27  13  23 / 100 100  20  10
TUP  42  42  27  37 / 100 100  50  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR CLAY-GREENE-
     LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

     ICE STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR LEE AR-
     PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

     ICE STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
     CROSS-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT.

     ICE STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR CRITTENDEN.

     ICE STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
     CRAIGHEAD.

MO...ICE STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
     DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...ICE STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR DESOTO-TUNICA.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST FRIDAY FOR ALCORN-
     BENTON MS-COAHOMA-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...ICE STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR CARROLL-
     CROCKETT-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-HENRY-MADISON-SHELBY-
     WEAKLEY.

     ICE STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
     DYER-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION.

     ICE STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR TIPTON.

     ICE STORM WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST FRIDAY FOR CHESTER-
     DECATUR-HARDEMAN-HENDERSON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST FRIDAY FOR HARDIN-
     MCNAIRY.

&&

$$