Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 291450
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
950 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...

ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES MADE FOR TODAY BUT NOTHING THAT
DEVIATES SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER A MAJORITY OF THE MID-SOUTH. SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY AS NOTED IN
NORTHWARD MOVING CLOUD MASS ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...A RIBBON OF MOISTURE LOCATED NEAR 850 MB WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD BOOST MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE OVERNIGHT.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AS IT IMPINGES UPON THIS AXIS OF BETTER MOISTURE WITH AT LEAST A
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.
NEARLY ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SOLUTION WHICH HAS RAISED
CONFIDENCE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

TVT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED IN
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. THE RECORD LOW AT JACKSON IS 25
DEGREES. AS OF 4 AM THE TEMPERATURE IS 25 DEGREES WITH ADDITIONAL
COOLING POSSIBLE PRIOR TO SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH...ALTHOUGH STILL NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. FROST AND FREEZE
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY 9-10 AM...WITH NO ADDITIONAL FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TODAY...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB 25-35 DEGREES ABOVE MORNING LOWS INTO THE 60S ACROSS ALL
OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE WARMEST LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH 70 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE MAY BE LIMITED...BUT STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL KICK IN TODAY HELPING TEMPERATURES SOAR.

WE WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS...ESPECIALLY BENIGN FOR SPRING. A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
DRASTIC COOL DOWN...ONLY A DRIER AIRMASS. IN FACT...DUE TO LESS
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
MONDAY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED...AREA WIDE AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. THERE ISN`T MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO NO STRONG
OR SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT ITSELF IS ABOUT THE ONLY
SUPPORTING ELEMENT OF PRECIPITATION...SO AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF ANY
GIVEN LOCATION...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. MOST AREAS
WILL RECEIVE AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW
50S...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WEAK BROAD RIDGE
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ZONAL
FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S BY MIDWEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA...NONE PARTICULARLY
EXCITING...BUT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY LOOKS DRIER AND
MAYBE A BIT COOLER AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT IN SUCH SUCH A WEAK PATTERN/FLOW REGIME IS LOW.

30

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT WITH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS. SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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