Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 010504
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1204 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 821 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH RESPECT TO LOW TEMPERATURES AND
A FREEZE IS STILL LIKELY. THE ONLY UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THAT WAS
MADE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR FASTER COOLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

TVT

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

THE FIRST ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR THE MIDSOUTH IS CURRENTLY
UNDERWAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE BRISK...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHERE ISOLATED GUSTS
ABOVE 30 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. SIGNIFICANT POST FRONTAL CLOUDS
HAVE ALSO PLAYED A ROLE IN THE WINTER LIKE FEELING FELT OUTSIDE.

FOR TONIGHT...CURRENT WATER VAPOR SHOWING INTENSE CLOSED LOW OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA DRIFTING SOUTH...WITH A RECENT LIGHTNING
STRIKE/THUNDER SNOW NEAR GARY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO EASTERN TENNESSEE BY MIDNIGHT
AND INTO SOUTH CAROLINA BY TOMORROW MORNING. UPSTREAM ON THE
SURFACE CLEARING SKIES OVER EASTERN MISSOURI WILL SLIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING WHILE THE BRISK NORTH WINDS SUBSIDE TO THE 5
TO 15 MPH RANGE. THE ZERO DEGREE 850MB ISOTHERM HAS ALREADY MOVED
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND SHOULD REACH MISSISSIPPI BY
00Z...SUBFREEZING 925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOON TO FOLLOW LATER
THIS EVENING. CURRENT FREEZE WARNING APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI LIKELY TO HAVE THE
LONGEST SUBFREEZING DURATION DURING THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SATURDAY WILL REMAIN COLD AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50`S...VERSUS A DAY IN
THE 40S AND CLOUDS. ALL MODELS SHOW BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WAA STARTING BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES
AND VERY LIGHT WINDS RADIATIONAL AFFECTS SHOULD PLUNGE OVERNIGHT
LOWS BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR AREAS AT LEAST EAST OF I-55. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE REGION AND ALLOW THE NIGHT
SHIFT TO RE-EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES BASED
OFF NEW MODEL DATA. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS WINDS
VEER SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY MILDER FOR SUNDAY
AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST...AN UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STREAM
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM/CLOSED LOW CROSSES
NORTHERN MEXICO. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MODELS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED BAND OF FRONTAL RAIN
FROM TEXAS TO MICHIGAN. THIS RAIN BAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH ON TUESDAY AND HANG AROUND TO POSSIBLY EARLY THURSDAY...
ACCORDINGLY TO THE GFS AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN TEXAS.
THE EURO SHOWS A DRIER SOLUTION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE STORM STALLS IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AS THE LINK WITH THE
NORTHERN JET FLOW BECOMES SEPARATED. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING/GFS CONSISTENCY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TONIGHT
NORTHERLY NEAR 10 KTS. WINDS SATURDAY NORTHERLY 9-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 18-22 KTS AT KMKL AND KTUP. WINDS AFTER 02/00Z LIGHT NE.

JCL/KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALCORN-
     BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BENTON
     TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$







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