Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 280904
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
404 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
INFRARED SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND PORTIONS OF EAST/NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS OF 3 AM
CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER...AND PREDOMINANTLY MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH.

A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WITH NEARLY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WITH OVERALL
SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY WEAK. /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 10 KTS/ AT THIS TIME...THINK OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LESS THAN YESTERDAY AS THE MAIN TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR
ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
BEING REACHED THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S. WEAK OVERALL SHEAR COMBINED WITH SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY INCREASING TO AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.7 TO 2 INCHES SUGGEST MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE
WILL BE PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS FROM WET MICROBURSTS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
BEING THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING TONIGHT.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR
FRIDAY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IN
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS. AS A RESULT...WOULD ANTICIPATE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO TODAY BUT A BIT MORE COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH DAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE MOST LIKELY OCCURRING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. A FEW STRONG TO
PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES
AND THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND COULD GET DENSE IN SOME
AREAS. ALONG WITH THE FOG COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING LIFR
CEILINGS AT TIMES AROUND SUNRISE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE
SOUTH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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