


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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529 FXUS64 KMEG 130042 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 742 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 742 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 - Scattered shower and thunderstorms chances continue with a 30% to 50% chance each day. Some storms could produce heavy rainfall and strong winds. - Hot and humid conditions are expected across the Mid-South, with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s and heat index values at or above 100 degrees. Heat index values could reach or exceed 105 degrees by the middle of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 742 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Convection continues to move slowly east across the Mid-South this evening, mainly affecting areas north of I-40. This activity has developed in a hot/unstable air mass but should see a gradual downturn after sunset given the stabilization of the boundary layer and weak deep-layer shear. That said, some of this activity may persist for a few more hours along and north of the outflow boundary that currently extends from Cross County (AR) into Gibson County (TN). Farther south, convection is much more isolated. PoPs were increased for the next few hours and some patchy fog was included overnight for the some of the river valleys in West TN and northeast MS. MJ && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Friday) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Warm and humid weather is set to continue ahead of a cold/stationary front currently across the lower Midwest. A shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will continue moving east with high pressure remaining over the Mid-South for the next several days. Extending south through the Midwest, a cold/stationary front currently sits just north of the region. As highs swell into the low 90s this afternoon, storms will form along and south of this boundary, posing a marginal damaging wind threat. Storms are expected to be diurnally driven and gradually weakening after sunset. Similar weather is expected tomorrow with lower confidence in the coverage of damaging winds from afternoon thunderstorms. Into next week, ridging will remain in place over the southern CONUS as upper troughing refuses to drop south of the Ohio River. As such, highs will continue to climb moving through the week, eventually reaching into the middle to upper 90s Wednesday through the end of the period. Heat indices are expected to be rising in tandem towards 105+ F which is increasing concerns for a Heat Advisory later in the week, especially across Mississippi and Eastern Arkansas. According to ensembles, PWATs will remain at or above 1.75" through this portion of the period, suggesting reasonably high confidence in daily scattered afternoon showers. These rains could keep areas from reaching advisory criteria, adding some complexity to the heat forecast through the end of the week. However, this airmass will still be very hot and humid, even if it is below a heat index of 105. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are moving across the airspace. JBR, MEM, and MKL have the best chance of direct terminal impacts with low confidence of thunderstorm coverage at TUP. Short lived reductions in visbys and gusty winds are likely in any storms. Southerly winds continue through the period with diurnal thunder chances returning tomorrow afternoon. DNM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 No fire weather concerns are anticipated through the forecast period. Hot and humid weather will keep MinRH values above 40% with winds gusting to around 20 knots through this afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected this evening with a marginal threat of damaging winds, which will gradually decrease in coverage after sunset. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow through the end of the forecast period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ UPDATE...MJ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...DNM