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000
FXUS64 KMEG 111458 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
958 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.UPDATE...
MIDMORNING GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
MOVING NORTH THROUGH MS... ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST TX COAST.

FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED FOR HOURLY SKY COVER... AS WELL AS
ADJUSTING FIRST PERIOD DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SOUTH OF I40 THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. CURRENTLY
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND INTO NORTHERN OHIO.

THE LOW IS FORECAST DROP SOUTHEAST AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS
SUNSHINE WILL FOUND THIS MORNING WHICH WILL HELP WARM UP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON A FEW
SHOWERS MAY POP UP MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THE CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL INCREASE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT SO HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY KEEPING THINGS DRY AND COOL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BRINGING MILDER AIR BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL NOT BE AS COLD
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

FRIDAY WILL START OUT DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL
LEVELS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT SO THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL INCREASE. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WON`T BE MUCH COLDER
THAN THE AIR AHEAD OF IT SO HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY SO THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY
BRINGING DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRAS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KTUP THIS AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING. IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT
KTUP. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WSW AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHRAS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMKL AND KTUP.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$