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000
FXUS64 KMEG 280211
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
911 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR REDUCING EVENING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT NEARLY INACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDSOUTH COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...AND WITH CAPE VALUES FALLING OFF EACH HOUR
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT EVEN MORE OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE
DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE
BETTER DYNAMICS HAS ALLOWED STORMS TO FIRE IN HENRY AND BENTON
COUNTIES. THIS TAIL END OF THE LINE MAY WORK ITS WAY DOWN ALONG
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH A
STRONG STORM STILL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
TO BE NONEXISTENT FOR THE AREA TONIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT AN ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER OR STORM MAY FORM ALONG THE
COLD FRONT FROM ROUGHLY I-40 SOUTH.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AS OF 3PM...TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE MID 70S. COMBINED
VALUES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO HEAT INDICES OF 101 TO 108 DEGREES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A DECK OF PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES STEADY FOR
THE TIME BEING. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM HAVE JUST
POPPED UP ON RADAR IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND ARE MOVING WESTWARD
AND INTO OUR FA. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
CENTRAL MICHIGAN...DOWN THROUGH INDIANA...AND BACK THROUGH
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS..AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ATMOSPHERIC CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OF THE FA FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
AROUND 00Z AND MOVE INTO THE MEMPHIS METRO BY 03Z OR SO. THERE
IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE STORM
INITIATION ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT ALL. LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAP SHOULD ERODE AROUND 22Z
LEADING TO STORM INITIATION...BUT A MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK AND A
LACK OF A CU DECK SUGGEST OTHERWISE. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR SHOW
THE FRONT COMING THROUGH MEMPHIS DRY AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY
FIRING UP OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI AFTER 03Z. IT REALLY SEEMS THAT
WE MAY BE TOO FAR REMOVED THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO SEE THE CAP
ERODE. NONETHELESS...ANY STORMS THAT DO INITIATE WILL BECOME
ROBUST AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND FLASH FLOODING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH BY TOMORROW MORNING.

BY MONDAY...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. THIS
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND KEEPING US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. IN
ADDITION...A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY ROTATE AROUND THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
OUR AREA. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
EAST...SO LEFT ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KJBR...KMEM...AND
KMKL THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY VICINITY TYPE COVERAGE. THIS SHOULD
END BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL SHIFT
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SLOWLY DIMINISH IN SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT.

AT KTUP...VICINITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE COMMON
LATER TONIGHT AND END BEFORE SUNRISE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR AREAWIDE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FEW
CUMULUS REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING BY LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTH WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK
UP TO AROUND 10 KTS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$