199
FXUS62 KMFL 062242
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
642 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

 - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms forecast to develop
   each afternoon through the forecast period.

 - Marine and beach conditions remain dangerous today as swell and
   onshore flow persist, but will gradually improve as the week
   progresses.

 - Minor to moderate coastal flooding remains likely this week as
   we approach the peak of this King tide.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 109 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

No major changes to the near or long term forecast this afternoon.
Convection has been slow to develop this afternoon but latest
visible satellite imagery is showing cumulus clouds starting to
broaden in coverage especially over the interior and SW FL. Latest
hi-res guidance still suggests scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon into early evening. Given fairly deep moisture in place
and slow storm motions, wouldn`t rule out an isolated urban and
poor drainage flood threat this evening, especially if any storms
happen to affect coastal locations early this evening around high
tide. High temps this afternoon will be in the upper 80s to lower
90s. Low temps tonight will be in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

The large scale pattern across the region remains mostly unchanged
today, with a ridge of high pressure building over the southeast
CONUS. The one exception is the location of the oft-mentioned
surface low that has been meandering east of the peninsula over the
last couple of days. Satellite imagery early this morning shows the
feature just offshore over the local Atlantic waters, and high-res
guidance suggests it will gradually drift SSW across the area today
into tomorrow.  The interaction between the ridge and the low will
continue to maintain an enhanced pressure gradient across the
region, but with the low drifting south, so will the pressure
gradient, thus supporting moderate to fresh easterly flow through
the short term. This setup will also continue to promote chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday, with locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds possible at times.

Highs will rise to the upper 80s and lower 90s today, with the
warmest temperatures found across southwest FL thanks to the
easterly flow regime. Overnight temps could dip to the low to mid
70s over the interior, and warmer upper 70s along the East Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

The pattern remains generally unchanged through mid-week, with
ridging aloft over the southeast CONUS and high pressure over the
Atlantic as the dominant features. This will continue to promote
breezy easterly flow across South Florida, supporting the typical
summertime regime of scattered showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon, with activity mainly focused over the interior and
southwest FL.

As we head into the back half of the week, ridging is forecast to
start eroding as an upper-level trough deepens over the central
and southern Plains. As a result, we could see the approach of the
first front of the season late this week. There is still a lot of
uncertainty regarding this solution and any impacts to South
Florida, but we`ll be eagerly monitoring the possibility as the
week progresses.

High temperatures through the extended period will generally
range from the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low-mid
70s across the interior and up to the upper 70s along the coasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

SCT thunderstorms along with MVFR ceilings through the evening.
E/NE winds 5-10 kts overnight with scattered showers possible
during the overnight hours. Easterly winds increase to 10-15 kts
after 15Z Tuesday with thunderstorms possible during the afternoon
into early evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Conditions over the local waters continue to improve today as winds
and seas subside. Hazardous seas 6-8 feet could still be possible
for the northern local Atlantic waters through Monday as winds 15-20
kts and northeasterly swell persist. Small Craft Advisories remain
in effect for the area through Tuesday night.  Winds could increase
again later this week, potentially necessitating an additional
round of Advisories. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain
likely each afternoon.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Onshore flow and lingering northeasterly swell will maintain a high
risk of rip currents across the Atlantic coastline through Tuesday
tonight.

Minor to moderate coastal flooding will be remain likely along the
east coast into next week during high tides due to the upcoming king
tide cycle, and ongoing E/NE swell.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  87  77  88 /  60  80  40  60
West Kendall     76  87  77  88 /  50  80  40  60
Opa-Locka        78  87  77  88 /  60  80  40  60
Homestead        76  86  77  87 /  50  80  40  60
Fort Lauderdale  77  86  77  87 /  60  70  40  50
N Ft Lauderdale  78  86  77  87 /  60  70  40  50
Pembroke Pines   78  88  78  89 /  60  80  40  50
West Palm Beach  78  86  77  87 /  60  70  30  40
Boca Raton       77  87  77  88 /  60  70  40  50
Naples           76  89  76  90 /  40  60  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ168-172-
     173.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-670.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...CMF