800
FXUS62 KMHX 302005
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
305 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push across the region tonight with high
pressure briefly building in from the north Monday. A strong low
pressure system will move across the Carolina coast Tuesday.
High pressure then rebuilds into the area from the north through
midweek before another low pressure system impacts the region
late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 2 PM Sunday...

Key Messages...

 - Scattered showers associated with a cold front will move
   through overnight bringing light rainfall amounts

After a chilly morning, southerly flow in the wake of a warm
front has brought a significant warmup with temps climbing to
around 65-70 degrees this afternoon under variably cloudy
skies. Skies will continue to increase this afternoon ahead of a
cold front that is currently pushing into the Appalachians.
Regional radar showing light showers around Cape Fear with
additional light rain across the piedmont. Could see a few
showers along the light Onslow Co and Crystal Coast late this
afternoon but a better chance of precip moves in this evening
and overnight as the mid-level shortwave and attendant cold
front pushes across the region. Moisture and dynamics remain
rather meager and not expecting much precip, mainly less than a
couple tenths of an inch. The front is progged to push across
ENC mid to late evening with CAA ramping up after midnight with
temps bottoming out in the upper 30s/lower 40s inland and mid to
upper 40s along the coast around daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 2 PM Sunday...

Key Messages...

 - Cool weather returns Monday with highs around 10 degrees
   below normal

High pressure briefly builds in from the north bringing dry and
cooler conditions Monday with breezy north winds. Skies will be
variably cloudy with clearing skies through the morning but
will see increasing clouds through the afternoon as the next
storm system strengthens across the deep South. Temps will be
around 10 degrees below normal with highs around 50 inland to
mid 50s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2 PM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - A strong low pressure system will impact ENC Tuesday bringing
   the potential for heavy rain, gusty winds, and minor coastal
   flooding

 - High pressure brings dry conditions and below normal
   temperatures Wednesday and Thursday

 - Another low pressure system is expected to impact the region
   late in the week.

Broad upper troughing across the CONUS with a series of
embedded shortwaves will push across the region through the long
term. A rather robust trough pushes into the Mississippi River
Valley Monday night then quickly pushes across the Mid-Atlantic
on Tuesday. Low pressure will rapidly deepen off the Southeast
coast late Monday night and lift along the Carolina coast
Tuesday morning, then quickly depart the area Tuesday afternoon.
Guidance is a bit faster with the system but there continues to
be some difference with the low track with most North American
models continuing to track the low inland across the coastal
plain while most European models show the low tracking right
along to just off the coast. A more inland track will bring
parts of ENC on the "warm" side of the low bringing the
potential for some convective elements and thunder, but this
should be mostly confined to the coast east of US 17, and over
the marine waters. Meanwhile, a coastal track will generally
keep convection off to just along the coast. A plume of
anomalous moisture and strong forcing, appears supportive of a
period of moderate to heavy rain along the track of the low.
Ensemble guidance and other forecast aids continue to show a
notable signal for heavy rain (1-2"+). The rain is much needed
as a large portion of ENC remains in a moderate drought. Given
the antecedent dry conditions, the flooding threat will be
nominal but cannot rule out minor nuisance flooding in areas
that see higher rainfall totals and/or higher rain rates.

For coastal areas, especially the Outer Banks, we`ll have to
closely monitor the potential for oceanside and soundside
flooding impacts due to the potential for strong winds, large
waves, and a higher tide cycle. See TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
section for more information.

Could see a few showers linger into Tuesday evening but
conditions quickly improve overnight as high pressure builds
into the area and strong CAA develops. Temps will plummet to the
upper 20s to lower 30s inland to low 40s coast. High pressure
will bring below normal temps Wednesday and Thursday with temps
around 5-10 degree below normal.

Precip chances increase again late in the week as the next
northern stream shortwave digs into the central CONUS and a low
pressure system lifts along the Southeast coast.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 105 PM Sunday... VFR conditions will continue across ENC
through the rest of the afternoon with sub-VFR conditions then
expected tonight as a cold front moves through the area.

Latest surface analysis shows high pressure well to the north
and east of NC this afternoon with a cold front noted near the
Appalachians as of this update. Out ahead of the front, light
S`rly flow persists with partly cloudy skies noted across the
region. Cold front is forecast to track across ENC overnight
bringing a threat for sub-VFR ceilings and some light showers.
Have MVFR ceilings reaching our western counties and TAF
terminals (PGV/ISO) around 00-03Z Mon with MVFR ceilings
reaching EWN/OAJ terminals closer to 03-06Z Mon and the OBX
there after. Guidance continues to hint at the threat for IFR
ceilings with the passage and directly behind the cold front
mainly along and east of Hwy 17 so have added in a SCT deck of
IFR ceilings at 900ft to OAJ and EWN terminals between 05Z-09Z.
Ceilings rapidly raise behind the cold front as dry air filers
into ENC early Mon morning with ENC forecast to be back to VFR
conditions by about 12-15Z Mon. While the front will likely
bring scattered showers or a steady light rain with it, precip
amounts will be light at best (generally less than 0.10 inches)
so not expecting any vis reductions with the shower activity.
But given increased confidence in precip at all terminals have
added a mention of -RA to all terminals on this update with
timing occuring generally after 00Z and likely ending by about
06-08Z Mon. Otherwise light S`rly winds become light and
variable tonight out ahead of the front and then shift to a
N`rly direction behind the front tonight and gust to 15-20 kts
after about 14/15Z Mon across much if not all of ENC.

Outlook: High pressure builds back into the area Monday with
pred VFR conditions expected. Widespread sub- VFR likely Tuesday
as a low pressure system is forecast to lift along the coast.
High pressure builds back into the area Wednesday and Thursday
with pred VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 3 PM Sunday...

Key Messages...

 - Small Craft conditions expected tonight through Monday
   afternoon behind a cold front

 - Gale Watch issued for portions of the coastal waters for
   Tuesday due to a strong low pressure system which will track
   over the Carolinas

 - Hazardous boating conditions will likely continue into
   Wednesday

Currently seeing southerly winds around 10-20 kt with seas
around 2-3 ft across the coastal waters this afternoon. A cold
front will cross the waters this evening causing winds to switch
to the NW and increase to 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts.
Strong northerly winds continue Monday morning, with conditions
slowly improving through the day. Seas will build to 4-6 ft in
response to stronger winds, then subside below 6 ft Monday
afternoon.

Outlook: Fair boating conditions will briefly continue Monday
night, but this will be short lived as a strong low pressure
system moves into the coastal waters Tuesday morning. Gale
conditions are expected across the coastal waters south of
Oregon Inlet with winds S 20-30 kts with gusts to 40 kts with
seas building to 7-13 ft. There remains potential for Gale
conditions to develop in other marine zones, but this will
depend on the exact track and strength of this system as is
passes by ENC.

Conditions improve through the day Wednesday as high pressure
builds into the area bringing light winds and seas. A backdoor
front is progged to push south across the waters Thursday night
and could see minor SCA conditions for a brief period late
Thursday night, mainly in gusts. Reinforcing high pressure
briefly builds into the area Thursday but another potential low
pressure system may impact the waters late Friday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 AM Sun...A strong low pressure system moving through
North Carolina Tuesday will bring elevated winds and seas. This
comes as we enter a king tide cycle Tuesday (12/2) through
Monday (12/9) of next week. Areas with vulnerable dune
structures along the Outer Banks have the potential to see minor
coastal flooding, heightened during Tuesday evening`s and early
Wednesday morning`s high tides. The forecast magnitude and
direction of winds and waves with this system depends on the
eventual track and strength of the low pressure system. And as a
result, specific coastal flooding impacts and their severity
are still unclear at this time.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to noon EST Monday for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 3 PM EST Monday for AMZ135-
     150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 5 PM EST Monday for AMZ152-
     154-156-158.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
     AMZ152-154.
     Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday evening for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...SK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX