709
FXUS62 KMHX 031916
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
216 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Passing light showers will give way to high pressure building
back over the Carolinas through Wednesday. Dry cold front
crosses late WED night/early THU with high pressure building
back in to round out the week. Another dry cold front moves
through by Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Mon...Upper low responsible for yesterday`s
coastal cyclone and localized torrential rainfall over Cape
Hatteras is quickly crossing the Carolinas this afternoon and
will give way to height rises as mid-level ridge builds eastward
over the southeastern CONUS. At the surface, surface low is now
east of of the Delmarva Peninsula and lifting further offshore
as high pressure centered over the southern MS River Valley
gradually builds eastward.

Current band of showers is being driven largely by the mid-level
vort max and is expected to clear out of the region entirely
before sunset as the low departs. Lower clouds will linger for
not much longer as CAA and rapid influx of dry air surges over
eastern NC, resulting in clearing skies for the rest of the
night. After being stuck in the upper 50s to low 60s today,
temperatures steadily fall overnight bottoming out in the low to
mid 40s, moderated by steady northwesterly winds. Over OBX,
winds will remain near 15-20 mph with higher gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 205 PM Mon...Dry, mild and clear conditions tomorrow as
mid-level flow becomes zonal and expansive surface high pressure
settles over much of the southeastern CONUS. Northwesterly
winds will gradually ease through the day, going calm after
sunset and setting the stage for good radiational cooling Wed
morning. Highs in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 2 AM Mon...

Tue through Fri...Overall a mild and dry pattern. Coolest night
of the week should be Tue night, where dry high pres passes
overhead ENC. This will bring temps down in the 30s for most,
with 40s on the beaches. Patchy frost is possible. Dry cool
front moves through on Wed only bringing a wind shift from sw to
nwrly. Highs generally 65 to 70 each day, near climo for first
week of Nov.

Sat through Sun...Next cold front will move through on Fri night
or Sat AM, though again will be on the dry side, so no real
sensible weather impacts. Not much of a cooldown behind the
fropa as flow will cont zonal, which means seasonable temps
cont.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18Z Tuesday/...
As of 1230 PM Mon...Sub-VFR conditions continue at all TAF
sites this afternoon as an upper level low moves in from the
west. Light rain will be moving out of western TAF sites in the
next hour or so with rain continuing at OAJ and EWN for the next
couple of hours as the upper level low moves through. Low
stratus will begin to scatter out as soon as the rain moves off
to the east. When skies do lift, it will be a quick transition
to partly cloudy skies later this afternoon. After the expect
VFR conditions through the TAF period with no fog or low stratus
expected overnight. Winds should continue to have a northwest
component through the day around 10 kts gusting at times 15-20
kts with gustiness subsiding after sunset tonight.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 1 AM Mon...Generally VFR conditions are expected through
Friday with high pressure over the area. Winds could gust 25-30
mph Wednesday afternoon, but otherwise good flying conditions
are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 215 PM Mon...Poor boating conditions across all waters
this afternoon with increasing northwesterly winds behind
yesterday`s departing low. Regional observations show winds
around 15-20 kt with frequent gusts up to 30 kt and seas 7-9
feet north of Cape Hatteras, but 3-5 feet south.

Poor boating conditions expected to extend into Tuesday as a
secondary northwesterly surge impacts waters after midnight,
likely a similar magnitude to today. Although winds will quickly
fall off in the afternoon and evening to around 10 kt by the
evening, seas will be slow to fall. Soundside and southern
waters will drop out of SCA conditions first, but northern and
central waters will still see seas above 6 feet until late Tues
night.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 1 AM Mon...

Key Messages...

- Improving conditions Tuesday with SCAs ending

- Another round of Small Craft conditions (SW winds) expected
  to develop Wednesday through Thursday morning

- Yet another Small Craft event possible late Friday into the
  weekend

Winds will become NW at 15-25 kts Tuesday morning, and then
weaken to 10-20 kt by the afternoon. Winds will come around to
the SW by Wednesday morning, and then strengthen to 15-25 kts by
the afternoon. Winds will peak at 15-30 kts ahead of a cold
front Wednesday night, and then switch to the N Thursday at
15-25 kts. Winds weaken Thursday night and become easterly by
Friday morning at 5-15 kts. Strong southerly flow then
redevelops late Friday with winds increasing to 15-25 kts.

Seas will be 5-7 ft first thing Tuesday, but will subside to 4-6
ft by the afternoon, and to 3-5 ft by early Tuesday night. 2-4
ft seas expected Wednesday, with an increase to 5-7 ft expected
Wednesday night. Waves will be mostly 3-5 ft Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RTE/MS
MARINE...SGK/MS