985
FXUS62 KMLB 161107
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
607 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 130 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

- A seasonably warm weekend continues across east central
  Florida.

- There is a Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents at
  Atlantic beaches.

- Dry conditions are forecast to continue through most of this
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Today-Tonight...Surface high pressure moves east of the area today
ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Meanwhile, zonal flow
begins to develop aloft. Dry conditions persist, with no mentionable
PoPs in the forecast through tonight. Westerly flow will prevail
across the area ahead of the approaching front, increasing to around
10-15 mph this afternoon, with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Near
normal high temperatures continue, reaching the upper 70s to near
80. Overnight lows tonight will also remain near normal, in the mid-
50s to near 60. There is a Moderate Risk for rip currents at the
beaches today. Always swim near a lifeguard.

Monday-Wednesday...The aforementioned weak front will stall across
the south-central Florida peninsula into Tuesday, where it will wash
out through mid-week. Surface high pressure and ridging aloft look
to build into the Southeast US Wednesday. The front itself is
forecast to remain dry, as PWATs remain well below 1.5" (forecast
closer to 1.15"). Therefore, no mentionable PoPs have been included
for Monday. However, onshore flow will support a slight moisture
increase along the dissipating boundary by Tuesday, where it is
forecast to linger into Wednesday. PWATs look to remain low (1.4-
1.5" max), but global models suggest at least a few showers are
possible along and offshore from the Treasure Coast Tuesday into
Wednesday. Thus, have a low (~20%) PoP in this area both days.
Elsewhere, conditions look to remain dry. Temperatures are forecast
to increase by a degree or two each day, though are expected to
remain in the lower 80s through mid-week. Onshore flow will have a
greater impact on the overnight lows, which look to increase into
the 60s for most of the area by Tuesday morning.

Thursday-Sunday...Surface high pressure over the Southeast is
flattened and pushed offshore into the Atlantic by a trough over the
northern US into the weekend. Locally, dry conditions continue to
prevail, as PWATs remain around 1". PoPs below 15% through Sunday.
Onshore flow will veer southerly through the period, with daily sea
breezes. High temperatures remain in the lower 80s, with overnight
low temperatures in the 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 130 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

A weak, dry front is forecast to move southward into the Florida
peninsula tonight into Monday. The front is then expected to stall
near or just south of the local Atlantic waters into mid-week, where
it will slowly wash out. Westerly winds generally 10-15 kts today
ahead of the front. However, winds increasing to around 15-20 kts
offshore north of Cape Canaveral will produce less favorable boating
conditions in that area overnight. Small craft should exercise
caution. Seas 2-4 ft.

Generally favorable boating conditions prevail, otherwise, as high
pressure builds into the area. Northerly winds Monday veer onshore
into mid-week and remain 15 kts or less through the period. Seas
mainly 2-3 ft, but up to 4 ft will be possible at times in the Gulf
Stream. Mostly dry conditions are forecast. However, a few showers
will be possible along the stalled frontal boundary Tuesday into
Wednesday along and offshore from the Treasure Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 607 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Patchy and shallow fog has formed around FPR this morning and may
develop elsewhere through sunrise. Otherwise VFR conds are
expected today with west breezes increasing to 8-14 KT, gusting to
15-20 KT esp Orlando and Daytona area terminals in the afternoon.
Late tonight a weak front approaches, concentrating moisture
along it. This prompts a 20-30% chance of MVFR conds at MCO well
after midnight; these probabilities are too low for deterministic
inclusion at the end of TAF but will monitor trends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  60  77  60 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  79  60  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  79  60  78  64 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  80  57  79  62 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  78  59  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  79  60  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  78  60  80  61 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  80  57  80  62 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Heil