090
FXUS62 KMLB 031059
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
659 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

- Wet weather pattern next few days with increased winds/moisture
  off the Atlantic supporting locally heavy rainfall especially
  along the coast where a Flood Watch is in effect through
  Saturday night.

- Prolonged, dangerous beach and marine conditions will continue
  into the weekend with life-threatening rip currents, high surf
  with breaking waves of 6 to 8 feet, and minor to moderate beach
  erosion especially near times of high tide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Today-Sat...Fairly tight E/NE pressure gradient around strong
high pressure over the NE U.S. will produce breezy/gusty
conditions with fast moving showers pushing onshore. PWATs are
1.5-1.8" today which will support locally heavy and persistent
rains with a flood threat materializing where any bands set up
across the coast from the Atlc. Concern increases tonight and Sat
as deeper moisture (PWATs 2.0-2.1") propagates westward from the
Bahamas, a remnant flux of moisture possible left over from
Imelda. A weak wave of low pressure may develop near the NW
Bahamas tonight/Sat and track NW across S FL. This would increase
the easterly winds across the area as well as enhance the
convergence resulting in a higher coverage and intensity of rain
expanding northward. As a result, WPC has drawn a Slight risk of
excessive rain for much of the central FL Atlc coast Sat. While
most areas will see less than 2 inches of rain, rainbands with
highly efficient rain rates will be capable of localized 3-5".
Confidence where these locally higher rainfall amounts will occur
is low, but there has been a fairly consistent signal for the
coast south of the Cape today, shifting northward to include most
of the coast Saturday. The evolution of this sfc low will be key
to determining the extent of the heavy rain threat esp on Sat.
Areas where soils are reaching saturation from previous heavy
rainfall will have higher sensitivity to flooding, particularly
coastal Volusia and portions of the Treasure Coast. A Flood watch
remains in effect through Sat night. Will monitor the need for a
Wind Advisory Sat along the coast if sustained winds can get to 25
mph and/or gusts to 35 mph.

On the St Johns River, Astor is already flirting with Moderate
Flood stage (3.0 ft) and heavy rainfall should cause rises on
other sections of the basin such as Cocoa and Geneva.

At the beaches, large breaking wave of 5-8 ft are will continue
to pound the coast, producing high/rough surf and numerous life-
threatening rip currents. Wave run-up to the dune will continue to
cause minor to moderate erosion near the times of high tide which
will occur between 4-7am and again 4-7pm the next few days.

Sun-Thu...Moist onshore flow is forecast to continue with high
(60-70%) rain chances Sun-Mon. Eventually some drier air is
forecast to move in from the E/NE either Tue or Wed temporarily
lowering rain chances. But model guidance is consistent showing
another strong high pressure developing over the eastern CONUS mid
week, keeping a brisk onshore flow with increasing moisture and
fast moving showers pushing onshore.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions are occurring over the local
Atlc waters as tight NE to E pressure gradient around sfc high
along the eastern seaboard supports 20-25 knots. These winds and
swell have built seas 7-12 feet and these very hazardous
conditions will persist through the weekend. A weak low or wave of
low pressure is forecast to develop near the NW Bahamas in the
next 24-36 hours and this tighten the gradient a little further.
Occasional gusts to Gale Force (34 knots) will be possible tonight
and Sat. There should be some relaxation of the pressure gradient
Sun-Mon as winds turn E-SE. While speeds should dip below 20 knots
esp across the southern waters, seas will be slow to subside so
have extended the SCA to include Sunday for all the waters. A
further extension of the SCA appears likely for the offshore
waters into early next week. Meanwhile, moisture increases
locally which will promote a high coverage of showers and isolated
storms containing heavy rain and cloud to water lightning this
weekend into early next week. Some drying should eventually move
in from the northeast Tue-Wed but it looks short-lived.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 659 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Light onshore-moving showers have spread across portions of east
central Florida early this morning. Have maintained mention of
VCSH at local terminals through much of the period as rounds of
showers persist. Impacts from passing showers are forecast to
generally remain brief with no mention of TEMPOs at this time.
However, will monitor for any localized banding of showers, and a
few amendments can`t be ruled out. Breezy east-northeast winds
persist with gusts increasing to 20-25 kts this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  73  82  74 /  60  50  80  70
MCO  84  72  83  73 /  50  30  70  50
MLB  83  75  83  74 /  60  60  70  70
VRB  84  75  83  74 /  70  60  80  70
LEE  84  72  83  72 /  40  20  50  50
SFB  84  73  83  74 /  60  40  70  60
ORL  84  73  83  74 /  50  30  70  60
FPR  84  74  83  74 /  70  70  80  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for FLZ041-141-154-159-164-
     247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ141.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Law