519
FXUS62 KMLB 052037
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
337 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 330 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

- Areas of low clouds and fog will settle southward late tonight
  associated with a weak cold front. Areas north of Orlando may
  remain socked in low clouds Saturday.

- Isolated to scattered showers with isolated lightning storms
  this weekend/into Monday. Highest chances across northern
  sections with periods of heavy rain possible.

- Turning noticeably cooler next week but no frost/freeze concerns
  at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Tonight...A weak cool front will sag into Lake and Volusia
counties by sunrise bringing areas of stratus and fog. A few
showers may precede the front across portions of Lake and Volusia
counties overnight but should dissipate by sunrise. Min temps will
be mild, holding in the low to mid 60s.

Sat...The front will stall across central FL Sat/Sat night.
Considerable low clouds will be slow to erode/break apart across
north half of FA and areas north of Orlando (Lake and Volusia)
look to remain socked in low clouds much of the day, if not all
day. Heating will occur south of the front allowing temps to warm
into the low-mid 80s south of Orlando. This will create a
differential heating boundary where isolated showers should
develop during the afternoon and even a storm or two are possible.
Persistent cloudiness may hold max temps to the mid 70s across
portions of Volusia/north Lake.

Sun-Mon...Model guidance is indicating the front will remain
nearly stationary Sunday or lift a little northward as an area of
low pressure organizes over the northern Gulf. This weak low will
cross FL Sun night and then over the western Atlc Mon. Behind this
low, the front will get pushed south of the area Monday with a
cooler NW flow developing.

Rain and isolated storm chances increase Sun afternoon and Sun
night, first across northern sections then shifting to southern
sections Monday. A persistent band of rain, heavy at times, will
be possible late Sun into Sun night across northern sections
(Lake/Volusia). Drying will commence behind the front Monday from
north to south. Max temperatures Sun will range from the mid 70s
north of Orlando to the mid 80s Okeechobee to the Treasure coast.
By Monday afternoon, maxes fall to the low 70s Volusia county to
around 80 Martin county.

Tue-Fri...High pressure settles over FL Tue-Wed, establishing
mainly dry conditions the rest of the week. The area of high
pressure retreats seaward late week and wind flow will develop a
southerly component which should allow a warming trend to
commence. Min temps will be in the 50s, except upper 40s north
Lake/intrr Volusia. Max temps generally in the low to mid 70s,
except holding in the upper 60s Tue Lake/Volusia.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

A weak cold front will sag into the northern waters tonight and
stall over central Florida and the adjacent Atlantic Saturday and
Saturday night. The front is forecast to surge south of the waters
Monday as north winds increase which will bring deteriorating
boating conditions. Rain and storm chances increase this weekend
in proximity to the front.

Winds turn NW to N behind the front Sat across the northern waters
and increase around 15 knots by late aftn. South of the front,
winds will remain S/SW. Winds become more variable Sat night/
Sunday in proximity to the front though a more uniform S/SW flow
is forecast as the front may temporarily lift back to the north.
Winds increase out of the NW-N around 20 kts behind the front on
Monday. Seas 2-3 ft nearshore and 4-5 ft offshore this weekend.
Seas become poor to hazardous Monday into Monday night esp over
the Gulf Stream, building 6-8 ft with 4-6 FT nearshore. Seas
slowly subside Tue-Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1255 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Breezy SW winds (gusts 15-25 kt) subside after 00z. Low stratus
is forecast to move in from the northwest after 03z-06z with some
fog forming after 06z. Confidence is low in FG impacting any one
of the terminals, though the 12z HREF indicates a 30-50% or
greater probability of IFR VIS, especially from ISM southward to
SUA. For now, maintained MVFR VIS reductions overnight with signal
for expanding stratus field. A quick -SHRA cannot be ruled out
03z-10z MLB northward, though not explicitly mentioned.

It will take time for stratus to erode on Sat., likely lingering
across northern/central terminals thru at least 15z. WSW winds
5-10 kt or less veer NW by the end of the TAF as a front pushes
south. VCSH be needed beyond 18z for southern sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  76  61  75 /  10  30  50  70
MCO  67  82  65  79 /  10  30  40  50
MLB  64  81  65  81 /   0  20  30  40
VRB  62  83  64  83 /   0  10  20  30
LEE  65  78  61  75 /  20  30  60  70
SFB  65  80  63  77 /  10  30  40  60
ORL  66  80  64  78 /  10  30  40  60
FPR  62  83  63  83 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Schaper