044
FXUS64 KMOB 070704
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
104 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1255 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

  - Patchy fog is possible across our interior-most counties in
    south Alabama and south Mississippi over the next few hours,
    especially north of Highway 84.

  - Additional rounds of light to moderate rain will occur today
    across coastal counties in Alabama/Florida and south-central
    Alabama, generally east of I-65.

  - A strong cold front sweeps across the area Sunday night into
    early Monday, which will lead to gusty winds area-wide on
    Monday. Temperatures fall below freezing for locations
    generally north of I-10 by sunrise on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

We have somewhat of a break in the rain at this hour as the band of
rain showers remains anchored over the Gulf at the moment. While
the rain may have briefly stopped, our attention turns to the
potential for fog over the next few hours. Probabilistic guidance
continues to indicate that our far interior counties in south
Alabama/Mississippi, mainly north of the Highway 84 corridor, have
the best chance for dense fog. While there are currently no
observations of 1/4 mile or less, we can see the fog settling into
northern Clarke County (AL) via webcams. The probabilistic
guidance indicates that the fog should be short-lived and will
shift further north and northwest of our area by 4-5am. For now,
we are holding off on an advisory, but will continue to monitor
observations, satellite imagery, and webcams.

The rain shield should begin to build back into the area by 9-10am
as a subtle mid-level impulse slides through the area. The best
chances for rain reside across our coastal counties and parts of
south-central Alabama, generally east of I-65. We will likely see
another brief period where we dry out in the early evening hours
before one last shot for showers ahead of the cold front. A potent
cold front will sweep across the area overnight Sunday into early
Monday. In the wake of the front, temperatures will fall into the
40s across much of the area (low 50s at the beaches) by sunrise on
Monday. Highs on both Monday will struggle to get into the mid to
upper 50s with breezy conditions throughout the day. Overnight low
temperatures will plunge into the upper 20s to low 30s north of I-10
with mid to upper 30s near the coastline by sunrise on Tuesday.
Locations north of Highway 84 can expect around 5 hours of below
freezing temperatures early Tuesday morning.

Wednesday and Thursday will generally be transition days with mild
temperatures and a dry forecast. Another potent front will likely
pivot into the area late in the week with the potential for even
colder temperatures in its wake. We could see a few nights with
temperatures in the 20s for most of the area (hovering around
freezing at the beaches) if this pattern pans out.

Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains LOW through Friday in the
current pattern. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Ceilings will continue to fall overnight. MVFR to IFR ceilings
persist at this hour and will fall to LIFR in the pre-dawn hours.
Visibilities will likely fall into the MVFR to IFR categories
around sunrise at the terminals. Patchy fog is possible further
inland across south Alabama and south Mississippi by sunrise. Rain
showers are expected through the day on Sunday ahead of a strong
cold front. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1255 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Showers will persist through early Monday morning ahead of a strong
cold front. Northerly winds will increase to advisory levels on
Monday with conditions subsiding by Monday night. Another round of
strong northerly winds are expected by next weekend. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      64  49  58  34 /  30  70   0   0
Pensacola   63  52  59  39 /  50  70  10   0
Destin      63  53  61  41 /  70  70  10   0
Evergreen   61  44  58  29 /  30  70   0   0
Waynesboro  61  44  55  29 /  20  70   0   0
Camden      59  42  54  28 /  20  70   0   0
Crestview   60  48  59  32 /  50  70  10   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Monday to midnight CST Monday
     night for GMZ630>632-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$