835
FXUS64 KMOB 202348
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
548 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 534 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

 - Fog continues to be the main concern with another round of
   dense fog late tonight into Friday morning.

 - Scattered showers and storms on Friday may lead to minor
   flooding concerns for areas generally along and north of the
   Highway 84 corridor in southwest Alabama (increasing signals in
   the guidance, but low confidence right now).

 - Moderate rip current risk Friday night through Saturday for
   local beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Fog will continue to be the predominant concern for the next few
nights. There remains some lingering fog this afternoon along the
Alabama coastline, but, after monitoring local webcams, it remains
very transient in nature and moves along very quickly. We expect
another round of fog, potentially dense fog, late tonight into the
morning hours on Friday. However, unlike the past few days, while
the probabilities of dense fog development remain high, we are
less confident in exactly where the dense fog will develop. We
have some confidence in fog development across south-central
Alabama, but not necessarily everywhere else. For that reason
we`re going to hold off on a Dense Fog Advisory for now and allow
the next shift to look at the guidance before potentially issuing
an advisory. Another round of fog or low ceilings is possible late
Friday night into Saturday morning behind the rain.

The forecast generally remains on track for the next several days.
Ridging aloft remains overhead today, but begins to flatten out
Friday into Saturday as a shortwave pivots across the Plains and
into the Midwest. A weak surface low reflection associated with
this shortwave will also pivot into the Midwest over the weekend.
The weak cold front draped southwestward from the low will
eventually swing across the local area. It will take some time for
the front to make it all the way through the area on Saturday
given the zonal flow just above the surface. The front may stall
just offshore for a bit before the surface high in the wake of the
front pushes the gas pedal Saturday night into Sunday morning.
The best dynamics will be well to the north of our area, so while
we may have some storms (a few might be strong in the afternoon
hours), we do not anticipate widespread severe storms with this
system. There has been a trend in recent ensemble guidance of
training showers and storms across some of our northernmost
counties late Friday afternoon into the evening hours, which is
leading to 2-4 inches of rain in a few very isolated spots (along
and north of Highway 84). We will continue to monitor these trends
and will amp up our messaging if warranted.

Sunday and Monday will be transition days as high pressure builds
into and out of the region in between systems, so expect a dry
forecast those days. That said, flow aloft becomes much more
amplified in the late weekend and early next week timeframe as an
upper low over Baja California opens up as it ejects northeastward
across the Plains. Expect another a few quick hitting system on
the heels of one another Tuesday into Wednesday (potentially into
early Thursday). The signal in the guidance isn`t overwhelming
when it comes to the severe threat, however, multiple rounds of
rain could lead to a minor flooding threat. The front should clear
through the region at some point on Wednesday or early on
Thursday, but the guidance is a bit murky on the timing that far
out in time. Regardless, the worst case scenario is that the
lingering rain showers clear out of the area through the morning
on Thanksgiving. Given the strong pressure gradient, it could be
windy on Thanksgiving.

Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains LOW through Friday with
a brief bump to a MODERATE risk Friday night into Saturday. The
risk will fall back to a LOW in between systems with another bump
to MODERATE Monday night through at least mid-week ahead of the
next system. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Restrictions to visibility remain challenging tonight as FEW to
occasional BKN low clouds (~2000 feet) act like a blanket,
resulting in fog being more transient. Patchy to areas of dense
fog will again develop along the coast by mid-evening and spread
inland through the overnight hours, with the best chance of dense
fog occurring southeast of I-65 with ceilings and visibilities
falling to LIFR to VLIFR criteria. However, we should see
visibilities improve to VFR along the immediate coast late this
evening due to a slight increase in southerly winds. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Dense marine fog is possible again the next 2 nights, particularly
for the bays and sounds. Fog will develop each night after
midnight and persist through mid-morning. Onshore flow will
increase to exercise caution levels Monday night into Tuesday with
offshore nearing advisory conditions on Thursday. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      77  62  79  64 /   0   0  40  10
Pensacola   75  65  77  68 /   0   0  10  10
Destin      75  65  76  68 /   0   0   0  10
Evergreen   83  56  81  63 /   0   0  20  20
Waynesboro  80  59  79  62 /   0  20  60  20
Camden      80  56  78  62 /   0   0  50  30
Crestview   81  56  79  63 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$