847
FXUS64 KMOB 161722
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1122 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1122 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

 - Risk for rip currents may increase to a high risk late in the
   week ahead of the next chance for showers and storms.

 - Rain chances gradually increase into the weekend; however,
   drought conditions are expected to continue across the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1053 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

An upper trof over the interior eastern states slowly retreats
northward through Tuesday night while a shortwave trof advances
across the Plains and progresses across the interior eastern
states. A surface low well off to the north brings a trailing cold
front into the northern portion of the forecast area this
afternoon which progresses into the marine area tonight. Despite
drier air flowing into much of the area with the passage of the
front, am expecting patchy fog development late tonight mainly
over the coastal counties and portions of southeast Mississippi. A
large upper trof advances into the western states and the Baja
area Tuesday night into Wednesday while a second, temporarily
phased upper trof progresses across the northwest states into the
northern Plains. A southerly surface flow becomes established over
the forecast area by Tuesday as a surface ridge shifts across the
region and a surface low progresses across the central Plains.
The surface low weakens while continuing across the interior
eastern states through Wednesday while a surface ridge becomes
oriented over the northern Gulf coast.

Some interesting things happen Wednesday night into Friday as the
southwestern states system ejects into the central Plains as a
powerful Pacific upper trof quickly dives into the southwestern
states and forms an upper low near northwest Mexico. There`s
uncertainty with how this dynamic pattern will play out over the
weekend. It appears the Plains system ejects off towards the Great
Lakes Friday night into Saturday or possibly becomes absorbed
into an upper trof over the north central states. There`s a bit better
confidence with what transpires with the upper low which looks to
advance to the Rio Grande through Sunday. The overall pattern
appears to lead to a surface low forming over the southern/central
Plains Thursday into Thursday night which eventually makes its way
across the eastern states over the weekend, though with
considerable uncertainty with the strength, timing and trajectory.
Have continued with a dry forecast through Thursday, then
considering the uncertainty with the pattern will have chance pops
on Friday and Saturday with slight chance to chance pops for
Sunday. In addition, another surface low looks to develop near
the Texas coast late in the weekend in response the upper low,
though whatever transpires with this system is outside of the
forecast period.

Lows tonight range from the lower 50s well inland to near 60 at
the coast with similar values for Monday night. Lows Tuesday night
and Wednesday night range from the mid 50s well inland to the
lower 60s at the coast, then Thursday night and Friday night will
be around 60 well inland to the mid 60s at the coast. Saturday
night will be cooler with lower 50s well inland ranging to around
60 at the coast. Highs on Monday range from the mid 70s to lower
80s then trend to the upper 70s to lower 80s by Wednesday. Highs
then gradually trend to the mid/upper 70s by Saturday and to the
lower to mid 70s by Sunday. A low risk of rip currents is expected
through Wednesday, then a moderate risk follows for Thursday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR flight category prevails across the region through this evening.
Overnight tonight a cold front sags southward across the area,
limiting any flight category restrictions to along and south of
the front. To its south, MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to
develop, with the potential for some patches of fog locally
reducing visibility to IFR or LIFR flight category at times. By
daybreak, surface heating will result in any lingering to
dissipate and ceilings to lift back to MVFR to VFR by mid morning
Monday. Winds will be out of the west at 5 to 10 knots gusting to
around 15 knots this afternoon. Light and variable to calm winds
settle in for the evening and overnight before gradually turning
out of the east around 5 knots Monday morning. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1053 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Light to occasionally moderate westerly winds become northerly
tonight then a light easterly flow develops on Monday. A light
southeasterly flow prevails for Tuesday and Wednesday, then becomes
light to moderate on Thursday and becomes southerly on Friday.
Small craft may need to exercise caution well offshore Thursday
night. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      57  78  59  79 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   60  76  60  77 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      60  77  61  76 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   52  77  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  55  78  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      51  75  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   52  78  50  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$