352
FXUS64 KMOB 111131
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
531 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 528 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

  - A strong cold front is expected to sweep through the area on
    Sunday. Bitterly cold temperatures are expected for Sunday
    night, and cold weather products may become necessary.

  - Strong marine winds are expected Sunday afternoon through
    Sunday night in the wake of a cold front. Occasional gusts to
    gale force are possible over our local Gulf waters.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

An upper-level longwave trough will remain across the eastern
CONUS through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. By
Sunday, an embedded shortwave will dig southeastward, helping to
reinforce the longwave trough before it finally lifts into the
western Atlantic on Monday. At the surface, a cold front has moved
through the local area this past evening, allowing for a cool,
dry airmass to filter in from the north as high pressure builds in
behind it. Highs will likely remain in the 50s today. High
pressure will quickly slide to our east tonight, causing winds to
switch back to a light onshore flow. This will allow for
temperatures to climb on Friday and Saturday, with highs warming
into the mid to upper 60s to around 70 degrees and lows ranging
from the low 40s north to the low 50s along the coast.

The next cold front, associated with the aforementioned embedded
shortwave, will quickly sweep through the area on Sunday. Out ahead
of the front, there may be just enough moisture pooling and weak
forcing to allow for the development of widely scattered showers
Saturday night. At this time, any rain that does develop should
remain light and no thunderstorms are anticipated. Once the front
passes through on Sunday, we quickly dry out for the remainder of
the day and temperatures are poised to plummet Sunday night due to
strong cold air advection. It should be noted that ensembles over
the past 24 hours have trended much stronger on this cold front,
likely due to a much more amplified forecasted shortwave. Lows for
Sunday night are now forecasted to range from the low 20s north
(potentially in the upper teens in a few locations) to the upper 20s
along the immediate coast. With winds remaining elevated overnight
due to a tight pressure gradient, it is becoming increasingly likely
that our apparent temperatures (wind chills) may be cold enough to
warrant Cold Weather Advisories across the area for Sunday night
(criteria: apparent temps less than 20 degrees [25 degrees] across
our northern [southern] counties). We will monitor trends closely
over the coming days. Highs on Monday will struggle to get out of
the 40s. Temperatures quickly moderate by midweek as high pressure
pushes to our east. A low risk of rip currents will be in place
through the period. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF cycle. Northerly winds will
turn southerly by this afternoon. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Moderate to occasionally strong northwesterly to northerly
flow this morning will subside today and become a light onshore flow
for Friday and Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory for our local gulf
waters remains in effect until 6am this morning. A strong cold front
will push across the marine zones on Sunday. Strong northerly to
northeasterly winds are expected to develop behind the front Sunday
through Sunday night. Occasional gusts to gale force may be possible
over the Gulf waters. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      58  41  69  52 /   0   0   0  10
Pensacola   58  48  69  54 /   0   0   0  10
Destin      59  50  69  54 /   0   0   0  10
Evergreen   58  35  70  46 /   0   0   0  10
Waynesboro  56  36  66  47 /   0   0   0  10
Camden      54  35  66  45 /   0   0   0  10
Crestview   59  36  70  47 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$