793
FXUS64 KMOB 150534
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1134 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1127 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

 - Dense fog will develop after midnight across the southern
   portion of the area, especially near the coast and over Mobile
   Bay and Mississippi Sound. Another round of fog, potentially
   dense fog, is possible late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1219 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

A vast majority of the models, including all of the Convective
Allowing Models (CAMs) are showing dense fog development late
tonight into Saturday. While there are slight differences in the
location of the fog, a general consensus is along and south of
U.S. Highway 84. We will need to monitor the development through
the overnight hours to determine if the Dense Fog Advisory needs
to be expanded in coverage.

A dry forecast period will otherwise persist through noon Thursday
as a dry northwesterly flow aloft becomes more zonal over the
weekend though early next week, followed by upper ridging building
over the region. An ejecting upper low pressure area over the
California/Mexico border Tuesday evolves into an upper trough over
the southern Rockies, and lifts northeastward over the southern
Great Plains and Mid-Lower Mississippi regions Thursday afternoon
into Friday. There remains some timing and placement differences
between the GFS and ECMWF, with the GFS being about 6-12 hours
faster, as the ECMWF reforms an upper closed low over the
southerly plains essentially slowing down the trough. Regardless,
did not make any adjustments to the National Blend of Models
(NBM) at this time and we still expect a chance for showers and
storms to move across the forecast area late Thursday through
Friday.

Both high and low temperatures will continue to trend higher over
the weekend through the middle of next week, with middle to upper
70s on Saturday, and middle 70s to lower 80s Sunday through
Thursday. Lows tonight in the middle 40s to lower 50s will become
well above normal over the weekend through next week, and could
be as high as 12 to 17 degrees above normal Tuesday night through
Thursday night due to more established southerly wind flow.

Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains LOW through mid week in
this pattern. The rip current MOS probabilities indicate that the
risk may briefly increase to near MODERATE levels by late Sunday
afternoon across the Florida panhandle beaches. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Areas of dense fog are beginning to develop across the local
region this evening, reducing visibilities down to LIFR. Expect
this fog to become more widespread throughout the remainder of the
overnight hours, eventually dissipating by around 14-15z. VFR
conditions will then become prevalent for the remainder of the
period. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1219 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Dense fog development is expected late tonight into Saturday for
Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound. Dense fog may advect further
south into a small portion of the Coastal Alabama offshore zone.
Light and variable winds will occur through Saturday morning
becoming light southerly to southwesterly Saturday afternoon. A
light southwesterly flow Saturday night shifts westerly Sunday
into Monday and then back to a light southerly to southwesterly
flow Monday afternoon into midweek. Southerly flow increases to
near advisory levels late in the week. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      52  76  56  78 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   55  74  60  76 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      57  73  61  75 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   47  79  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  49  77  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      48  77  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   44  76  51  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Saturday for ALZ052-053-055-
     056-059-060-261>266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Saturday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Saturday for MSZ075-076-078-
     079.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Saturday for GMZ630>632.

&&

$$