666
FXUS64 KMOB 202025
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
225 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 217 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

 - Fog continues to be the main concern with another round of
   dense fog late tonight into Friday morning.

 - Scattered showers and storms on Friday may lead to minor
   flooding concerns for areas generally along and north of the
   Highway 84 corridor in southwest Alabama (increasing signals in
   the guidance, but low confidence right now).

 - Moderate rip current risk Friday night through Saturday for
   local beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Fog will continue to be the predominant concern for the next few
nights. There remains some lingering fog this afternoon along the
Alabama coastline, but, after monitoring local webcams, it remains
very transient in nature and moves along very quickly. We expect
another round of fog, potentially dense fog, late tonight into the
morning hours on Friday. However, unlike the past few days, while
the probabilities of dense fog development remain high, we are less
confident in exactly where the dense fog will develop. We have some
confidence in fog development across south-central Alabama, but not
necessarily everywhere else. For that reason we`re going to hold off
on a Dense Fog Advisory for now and allow the next shift to look at
the guidance before potentially issuing an advisory. Another round
of fog or low ceilings is possible late Friday night into Saturday
morning behind the rain.

The forecast generally remains on track for the next several days.
Ridging aloft remains overhead today, but begins to flatten out
Friday into Saturday as a shortwave pivots across the Plains and
into the Midwest. A weak surface low reflection associated with this
shortwave will also pivot into the Midwest over the weekend. The
weak cold front draped southwestward from the low will eventually
swing across the local area. It will take some time for the front to
make it all the way through the area on Saturday given the zonal
flow just above the surface. The front may stall just offshore for a
bit before the surface high in the wake of the front pushes the gas
pedal Saturday night into Sunday morning. The best dynamics will be
well to the north of our area, so while we may have some storms (a
few might be strong in the afternoon hours), we do not anticipate
widespread severe storms with this system. There has been a trend in
recent ensemble guidance of training showers and storms across some
of our northernmost counties late Friday afternoon into the evening
hours, which is leading to 2-4 inches of rain in a few very isolated
spots (along and north of Highway 84). We will continue to monitor
these trends and will amp up our messaging if warranted.

Sunday and Monday will be transition days as high pressure builds
into and out of the region in between systems, so expect a dry
forecast those days. That said, flow aloft becomes much more
amplified in the late weekend and early next week timeframe as an
upper low over Baja California opens up as it ejects northeastward
across the Plains. Expect another a few quick hitting system on the
heels of one another Tuesday into Wednesday (potentially into early
Thursday). The signal in the guidance isn`t overwhelming when it
comes to the severe threat, however, multiple rounds of rain could
lead to a minor flooding threat. The front should clear through the
region at some point on Wednesday or early on Thursday, but the
guidance is a bit murky on the timing that far out in time.
Regardless, the worst case scenario is that the lingering rain
showers clear out of the area through the morning on Thanksgiving.
Given the strong pressure gradient, it could be windy on
Thanksgiving.

Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains LOW through Friday with a
brief bump to a MODERATE risk Friday night into Saturday. The risk
will fall back to a LOW in between systems with another bump to
MODERATE Monday night through at least mid-week ahead of the next
system. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Mid-day satellite imagery shows patches of lingering low cigs left
over from morning fog. Heading into the afternoon, a few to
scattered bases 1-3 kft is anticipated. Vsby ok. Going into
tonight, a persistence type approach is considered with IFR/LIFR
cig bases returning. Restrictions to vsby a bit more challenging
tonight with the better signal for fog, perhaps dense more focused
along and north of I-10. Even so, have opted to include MVFR
vsbys by and after 21.03Z over the terminals with a small late
night tempo group of perhaps IFR categories. Winds light. /10

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Dense marine fog is possible again the next 2 nights, particularly
for the bays and sounds. Fog will develop each night after midnight
and persist through mid-morning. Onshore flow will increase to
exercise caution levels Monday night into Tuesday with offshore
nearing advisory conditions on Thursday. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      77  62  79  64 /   0   0  40  10
Pensacola   75  65  77  68 /   0   0  10  10
Destin      75  65  76  68 /   0   0   0  10
Evergreen   83  56  81  63 /   0   0  20  20
Waynesboro  80  59  79  62 /   0  20  60  20
Camden      80  56  78  62 /   0   0  50  30
Crestview   81  56  79  63 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$