423
FXUS64 KMOB 161157
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
557 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 549 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

 - Risk for rip currents may increase to a high risk late in the
   week ahead of the next chance for showers and storms.

 - Rain chances gradually increase into the weekend; however,
   drought conditions are expected to continue across the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 549 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Satellite imagery and observations suggest that dense fog is
developing once again across a majority of the local area. Went
ahead and issued a Dense Fog Advisory, generally for areas along
and south of the Highway 84 corridor down to the I-10 corridor,
through 9am. Other than that, forecast for the rest of the day
remains on track. /96

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1103 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Dry and mild conditions are expected for the remainder of the
weekend and into next week as upper level high pressure slowly
builds over the area. High pressure looks to be in control
through Thursday with mainly a temperature forecast through the
week. Highs will remain above normal floating around in the upper
70s to low 80s most of the week. Lows will gradually increase each
day as low level flow steadily turns more southerly and dewpoints
begin to increase. Expect lows to start off in the mid to upper
50s and climb into the 60s by the end of the week. The only hazard
we will likely deal with each night will be the potential for
patchy fog as moisture increases and calm cool nights allow for
maximized radiational cooling.

The next chance for rain arrives late in the week as the next
upper trough digs into the central US. In response to the upper
trough, the ridge will amplify across the area and southerly
moisture transport will steadily increase Thursday through Friday.
The upper trough is expected to eject across the Mid-Mississippi
valley into the Great Lakes Region. This trough and jet
progression will likely leave us on the outside looking in on any
substantial rain as the best diffluence is off to our northwest.
Given the current progression, rain and storms would likely be
hard to come by and that is even noted with mostly scattered
storms and NBM probability of lightning only being around 20%
despite increased instability across the area. The forecast
becomes a little more uncertain with the evolution of the second
upper trough/cutoff low and as a result rain potential is a
littler uncertain Saturday into Sunday as the lead cold front
hangs up across the deep south. While the pattern will remain
rather active, exact rain chances and potential for any storms
will likely not be ironed out for a couple of days. So for now we
are just going to monitor the situation.

Rip current probabilities continue to indicate that a potential
rise to a MODERATE risk for all beaches on Thursday afternoon and
a increase to a HIGH risk by the weekend. BB-8

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Dense fog is once again developing across a majority of the area
this morning, reducing visibilities down to around 1/4 mile. Due
to elevated winds along the coast, expect the best coverage to
remain north of the I-10 corridor. Fog should dissipate sometime
between 14-15z, with VFR conditions prevailing through the
remainder of the day and into the evening hours. Fog may once
again develop late Sunday night. Winds will generally be light out
of the west today. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1103 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Light to occasionally moderate westerly flow will persist late
tonight through Sunday. A light offshore flow will briefly set up
after midnight Sunday night before turning easterly by noon on
Monday. A light southeasterly flow will then occur Monday afternoon
through midweek, increasing to moderate on Thursday along with
building seas. BB-8

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      79  57  78  59 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   77  60  76  60 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      76  60  77  61 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   80  52  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  79  55  78  55 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      78  51  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   79  52  78  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>053-
     055-056-059-060-261>265.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for FLZ201-203-
     205.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$