680
FXUS63 KMPX 190547
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1147 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry and mild period expected with temperatures 5-10
  degrees above normal through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1216 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

As the last of the rain/snow mix exits east, we shift back to a
relatively quiet stretch of weather under mostly zonal flow
aloft. A shortwave will pass to our north Wednesday into
Thursday, bringing a slight chance for rain to portions of
central MN and northwest WI along a cold front. Forecast
soundings suggest that dry air above 700mb may limit cloud ice
formation, which would result in a lower ceiling for any rain in
an environment where QPF is only in the hundredths at best.

Ensemble guidance is fairly uniform, suggesting persistent
highs and lows roughly 5-10 degrees above normal all the way
through at least the weekend. A couple strong cyclones form off
the Rockies, but they should stay closer to the Gulf than to us
with cutoff flow stretching as far south as Mexico.

The first real sign of a big shakeup to the pattern does not
come until around Thanksgiving Day. Ensemble mean temperatures
drop about 5-10 degrees below normal, with the potential for
northwest flow to develop aloft. This will be the period to
watch, but for now it should be a quiet late fall week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1142 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

The main aviation concern tonight is dense freezing fog across
western Wisconsin where visibilities will hover around 1/4 to
1/2SM until a deck of stratus overspreads from the south.
Ceilings are generally low-end MVFR currently with this stratus
deck as it spreads northwards out of southern Minnesota, but
ceilings are expected to drop to IFR overnight. IFR ceilings
should persist through the morning at all terminals, with
gradual improvement to MVFR likely through the afternoon &
evening.

KMSP...Ceilings are expected to drop below 1000 ft by 3-4 AM, &
should stay there into at least early afternoon. SOme
improvement to MVFR looks possibly by mid to late afternoon, but
expect ceilings to remain MVFR into Thursday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...AM MVFR ceilings, becoming VFR. Wind WNW 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind W 5kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...ETA