867
FXUS63 KMPX 020848
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
248 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder than normal temperatures to continue through and beyond
  the first week of December, with the first widespread sub-
  zero morning of the season coming Thursday.

- A few chances for light snow/flurries this week, particularly
  tonight with one weak wave and then Friday through Saturday
  with a pair of weak clipper systems

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Surface analysis early this morning shows relatively north-
south oriented high pressure over the central CONUS, including
an inverted trough extending northward into MN, along with a low
pressure center over southern Saskatchewan province. Aloft, a
longwave trough is just east of MN/WI, extending SSW from Hudson
Bay to the Mississippi River Delta while prolonged northwest
flow stretches all the way to the Gulf of Alaska. This trough is
evident on IR/GeoColor satellite imagery with much of western
MN in clear skies while far eastern MN through much of WI still
has low stratus in place. This is creating quite the temperature
difference in that western MN already has temperatures in the
single digits while those sites under the stratus hold in the
teens.

Even with partial clearing later today, cold temperatures will
remain in place due to the long pathway for arctic air to drop
into the region. Highs will remain in the 20s area-wide. The
first of several weak clipper-type waves will drop southeast
through the region tonight. The aforementioned low over western
Canada will slide into northern MN this afternoon then drive ESE
into northern WI this evening. Its associated fronts and modest
swath of moisture may be just enough to produce scattered snow
showers this evening into the early morning hours Wednesday.
Little to no snow accumulation is expected with this system.

Behind it, an appreciable surge of frigid air is expected to
plunge into the Upper Midwest. Even with clearing skies for
Wednesday- Thursday with high pressure moving in, H85 temps late
Wed into early Thu drop to as low as -15C to -20C. This will
then translate to highs on Wed in the single digits to the teens
followed by possibly record-low minimum temperatures early
Thursday morning down into the negative middle teens.

Some temperatures recovery will take place Thursday through
Friday as another clipper system approaches from the northwest
Friday, placing the Upper Midwest in a relative "warm" sector.
That said, chances increase a bit for additional scattered snow
showers Friday as that low drifts across Northern MN, only to be
followed by another low from the Dakotas into the Mid-
Mississippi River Valley on Saturday. This second low has taken
a weaker look among the models from this time yesterday, but
still warrants "Chance" PoP mention for light snow over mainly
the southern half of the WFO MPX coverage area. Same as the
system for today, little if any accumulation is expected from
these weak systems Friday-Saturday.

Highs to drop back into the teens Saturday-Sunday with the
passage of these weak waves, then slowly recover back to the
20s for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

For eastern MN and WI, low stratus will continue to persist with
MVFR likely through tonight. A reduction to IFR is expected
around 12Z and should last thru the rest of Tuesday morning. For
most terminals to the west (except RWF), mostly clear skies
will provide strong radiational cooling and another round of low
cigs and mist early this morning. Currently have the worst
conditions expected at AXN where LIFR looks likely with
visibilities down to 1sm and cigs near 400 feet. A west-to-east
improvement to VFR is likely from late morning into the
afternoon. However, a cold front from the west Tuesday evening
will drop cigs to at least MVFR. Have added PROB30s at all
terminals for the chance of -SHSN and reduced visibilities.
Light southwesterly winds turn southerly Tuesday morning with
speeds increasing to 5-10 knots. Winds turn northwesterly once
the frontal passage occurs.

KMSP...Kept TEMPO from 06-10Z for periods of VFR cigs due to
breaks in stratus. Regeneration of the low stratus seems
probable with IFR cigs and perhaps even some light mist after
11Z. Conditions should improve to VFR by mid-afternoon. The cold
front should pass thru MSP near 05-06Z Wednesday with chances
for snow showers in the few hours around it. Cigs should fall to
MVFR/IFR after the front.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR. Chc -SN early. Wind NW 10-15kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR late. Chc -SN late. Wind SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...CTG