840
FXUS63 KMPX 091948
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
148 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dry week ahead with only a few flurries today.

- Today is the worst of the cold with a warming trend through
  the week with near to above normal temperatures mid to late
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Cold air advection will be the story for the rest of the day.
This is thanks to a very strong jet overhead, trough to our
east, and surface high to our west. This provides for cold air
moving in at almost every level. This has brought today`s
temperatures down to what is normal for mid December. Also as
is common in these strong CAA scenarios we have seen elevated
winds and snow flurries. Due to the positioning of the upper
level forcing there could be some heavier flurries or even snow
showers over parts of western Wisconsin tonight. No
accumulation expected in flurries with maybe up to around an
inch in parts of Rusk County, WI.

As this whole system moves farther east and causes significant
impacts near Lake Michigan the CAA setup we saw today comes to
an end. This will allow for a warming trend in the early part of
the week with normal to above normal temperatures by Tuesday.
Looking at NBM percentiles these temepratures stay consistent
though the end of the week before a lot more variability starts
up for next weekend. This variability is associated with the
next system and our next chance for precipitation. The bulk of
the week looks quiet as we see a ridge build in to start the
week which is then followed by northwest flow. There are a few
shortwaves in this flow, but moisture is generally lacking.
This lacking moisture is from temperatures returning to normals
and no good moisture source. It is not until the previously
mentioned, larger system moves into the Midwest next weekend
that PoPs start to increase. Looking into global ensembles there
remains significant spread on the track and therefore impact of
this system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

More flurries expected this afternoon, but no change in flight
category from this. Visibility will remain VFR due to the light
nature of the snowfall. Ceilings will remain in the low VFR to
high MVFR range as this moisture moves through. Winds will
continue to gust in the 20 to 30 knot range this afternoon into
early evening. Much calmer winds expected tonight into tomorrow.

KMSP...Some flurries this afternoon with little impact on flight
category. Expected to remain low VFR due to ceilings. Gusty
northwest winds will continue to gust up into the 25 to 30 knot
range through this evening. VFR with calmer winds tonight into
tomorrow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind S bcmg WNW5-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...NDC