451
FXUS66 KMTR 021804
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1004 AM PST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 418 AM PST Tue Dec 2 2025

 - A more substantial offshore wind push arrive late tonight and peak
   Wednesday morning for the North Bay, Bay Area, and Santa Cruz
   Mountains.

 - Quiet weather again after Wednesday, continuing into the
   weekend.

 - Hazardous beach conditions through Wednesday.

 - King Tides arrive December 2 - 7.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 418 AM PST Tue Dec 2 2025
(Today and tonight)

Zonal flow over the region tightens as an upper level low develops
and slides into the Great Basin by Wednesday. Quiet weather is on
tap, with light offshore flow today. Though winds increase late
tonight and peak Wednesday morning for the North Bay, Bay Area, and
Santa Cruz Mountains. These winds will have gusts around 30-45 mph,
with locally higher gusts possible on higher terrain in the North
Bay mountains. Conditions will dry out some; however, given earlier
rainfalls this year fuel moisture should mitigate fire weather
concerns. &&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 418 AM PST Tue Dec 2 2025
(Wednesday through Monday)

Winds begin to wind down during the late morning and afternoon hours
on Wednesday. After that fairly quiet weather remains on tap as
upper level ridging noses into the region. Ensembles hold weak
ridging through the weekend, perhaps even into early next week. This
matches the Climate Prediction Center`s 8-14 day outlook which has
us leaning above normal for temperatures, with near normal or just
below normal chances for precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 418 AM PST Tue Dec 2 2025
(Wednesday through Monday)

Winds begin to wind down during the late morning and afternoon hours
on Wednesday. After that fairly quiet weather remains on tap as
upper level ridging noses into the region. Ensembles hold weak
ridging through the weekend, perhaps even into early next week. This
matches the Climate Prediction Center`s 8-14 day outlook which has
us leaning above normal for temperatures, with near normal or just
below normal chances for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 928 AM PST Tue Dec 2 2025

It`s a great day for VFR pilots to get up! Outside of some
lingering patchy morning fog spilling over from the Central
Valley, clear skies will dominate today. Winds will be gentle and
shift from offshore to onshore in the afternoon. The synoptic pattern
becomes drier through the TAF period. Strong high pressure is
building over northern Nevada while coastal CA troughing
strengthens. This offshore, high-to-low pressure gradient will
bring dry offshore flow that will discourage any low level
clouds. This dry air should also mix down to limit radiation fog
Wednesday morning. Although even with low dew points that`s not a
guarantee with enhanced surface cooling under clear skies and long
December nights.

Vicinity of SFO...Guaranteed VFR conditions through the day. The
biggest question mark is when exactly surface winds will shift
from offshore to onshore and back. The TAF currently has onshore
winds driven by the sea breeze from 23Z to 10Z, but with weak
forcing, there is a lot of wiggle room there.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions across the region today.
Winds will remain light and variable at MRY. SNS will have
moderate drainage flow continue through the early afternoon before
a weak sea breeze should flip the wind direction. There is a
better chance for ceilings to form at MRY and SNS overnight as
the offshore wind is focused further north and a weak marine
layer may have a brief chance to develop there.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 928 AM PST Tue Dec 2 2025

Persistent high pressure over the Eastern Pacific will cause the
moderate to strong northerly breeze to continue through the week.
Rough sea heights will subside by Thursday as westerly swell
abates.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 534 AM PST Tuesday Dec 2 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for the coastline
from Sonoma County to Monterey County through 10 PM PST Wednesday
evening. Breaking waves 10 to 14 feet, with long lulls of 10 to 20
minutes or more between largest sets can be expected. Some of the
favored break points may exceed 20 feet at times. Forerunners
will be 18+ seconds with heights of 2-5 feet into tonight
resulting in the greatest risk for sneaker waves. This combined
with high astronomical tides in the morning hours will increase
the aforementioned risk. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run
significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over
rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and
stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.

RGass

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508-
     529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Wednesday for SF Bay
     N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST
     Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Wednesday for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PST
     Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Flynn

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea