962
FXUS66 KMTR 100006
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
406 PM PST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 PM PST Sun Nov 9 2025

 - Warming and drying trend through Monday

 - Unsettled weather pattern returns midweek and potentially lingers
   into the upcoming weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1234 PM PST Sun Nov 9 2025
(This evening through Monday)

Another warm day is in store for the region as mostly sunny skies
prevail (just a few passing high clouds). As such, temperatures are
forecast to warm into the the low-to-mid 80s across the interior
with the warmest spots across the interior Central Coast approaching
90 degrees F. Near the coast and in the coastal adjacent valleys,
expecting low 70s to low 80s. A southerly surge is moving northward
along the Big Sur coastline, yet should mostly impact locations
along the immediate coast across this region.

Tonight, expecting low clouds and/or fog near the coast as a shallow
marine layer deepens slightly to around 500 feet. However, weak
offshore winds prevail across the higher elevations will keep drier
conditions in those areas.

Monday is forecast to be our warmest day of the week (especially
inland). Any low stratus and/or fog that does develop will quickly
retreat to the coast by late morning or early afternoon. However,
onshore flow is likely to keep coastal temperatures a few degrees
lower and inland temperatures a few degrees warmer than what is
forecast for this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1234 PM PST Sun Nov 9 2025
(Monday night through next Saturday)

On Tuesday, the ridge begins to shift eastward which will start a
cooling trend as onshore winds become more widespread (even in the
higher elevations). However, afternoon temperatures will remain 5-15
degrees above seasonal averages.

By Wednesday, high level clouds will increase across the region
ahead of an approaching weather system bringing temperatures closer
to seasonal averages. Rain looks to be greatest from Wednesday night
through early Thursday morning as an atmospheric river takes aim on
the Bay Area and Central Coast. The coastal ranges and inland
hills/mountains in the Bay Area and North Bay have the greatest
potential (60%+) of seeing greater than 2.00" from 4 AM Wednesday
through 4 AM Friday. The North Bay Valleys and San Francisco could
see up to 1.50" with generally less than or around 1.00" for the the
remainder of the region. Given this is an atmospheric river, the
rain shadowed valleys may receive much less with respect to
rainfall. Southerly winds will increase ahead of the cold front, but
exact strength of these winds still remain in question. However,
expect the strongest winds to be along the coastline and in the
higher elevations across the region. There is also a less than 15%
probability of thunderstorms Wednesday night and into Thursday as
the main band of convection moves across the region. Once we get in
the range of the higher resolution forecast models, we will be able
to nail down the details (wind, rainfall amounts, thunderstorm
potential, etc).

From the previous forecaster: "After the main rain band moves out
late Thursday, an extended period of lighter rain, possibly showery
in nature, lingers Friday into the upcoming weekend. The axis of the
upper level trough crosses into the state early on Friday, promoting
unstable conditions resulting in the possible development of
convectively driven showers. There is also a chance that a cut-off
low could develop off the coast of southern California, which could
enhance the rain potential across the Central Coast. That said, with
the moisture tap moving to the south and into southern California
and Baja California, there will be less moisture for the showers to
tap into, and the rain totals for this part of the system trend
lower than those on Wednesday and Thursday. The precipitation
chances start out around 40-60% on Friday morning and steadily
decrease into Saturday.

Beyond the 7 day outlook, ensemble model means are suggesting
another trough may develop somewhere around the Day 8-9 (the 16th
and 17th) timeframe, bringing another chance of rain to the region.
This far out, attempting to tease out any further details is a
fool`s errand."

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 340 PM PST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR conditions at all terminals through early tonight. The
challenge for the next 24 hours will be the surge sneaking up the
coast. Not expecting impacts to the big three, but we`ll need to
watch HAF,MRY,SNS closely. Highest conf now are low cigs impacting
HAF, SNS.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Light winds now getting a onshore push
this evening. Light winds tonight then another onshore push
Monday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...southerly surge sneaking up the coast
looks to keep VFR through early tonight before low cigs move into
SNS first then MRY overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 340 PM PST Sun Nov 9 2025

A southerly surge moving northward will bring a shift in winds and
patchy dense fog south of the Golden Gate, especially near shore,
through tonight. Areas of north of the Golden Gate will remain
light to moderate winds and out of the north. Southerly surge ends
Monday with northerly flow all waters. Unsettled weather returns
midweek with increasing southerly winds. These winds, combined
with a building NW swell, will generate rough seas across the
waters. Winds are expected to decrease Friday, but the high swell
continues to build with significant wave heights reaching up to 15
feet before diminishing through the weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea