492
FXUS66 KMTR 031740
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
940 AM PST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 904 AM PST Wed Dec 3 2025

 - OFfshore winds continue through the day across the higher
   elevations, with gusts gradually relaxing today into tonight.

 - No major fire weather concerns as fuel retain good moisture after
   early November rains.

 - Dry and quiet weather persists through the weekend into mid next
   week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 AM PST Wed Dec 3 2025

High clouds are streaming across the Bay Area and Central Coast,
with some lingering stratus continuing to dissipate over the
southern reaches of Monterey County. Gusty offshore winds persist
across the higher elevations of the Bay Area, with the strongest
gusts overnight reported at the Healdsburg Hills North station
operated by PG&E, which reported a 72 mph gust at 450 AM. The
SFO-WMC gradient has relaxed through the morning, reaching its
strongest at 7 AM with a gradient of -8.9 mb, to a observed value
of -6.6 mb as of 9 AM. With the models expecting a gradual
weakening of the offshore gradient over the next 24 hours, this
supports a continuation of the offshore flow, although the gusts
will gradually relax through the day into tonight.

DialH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 141 AM PST Wed Dec 3 2025
(Today and tonight)

Satellite imagery this morning shows stratus in the valleys
surrounding the Bay Area and the interior Central Coast; however,
the growth of the stratus is slowly getting cut off as the offshore
pressure gradient tightens bringing in drier air to the region.
Offshore winds have already started to ramp up for the North Bay
mountains, with the highest points in Mayacamas and Sonoma mountains
peaking around 50-55mph. Winds will continue for the rest of the Bay
Area and Santa Lucia mountains, peaking by mid morning and the
gradually decreasing as we head into the afternoon and evening.
Given the earlier rains this season, fire weather concerns remain
low due to moist fuels.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 141 AM PST Wed Dec 3 2025
(Thursday through Tuesday)

The extended forecast remains persistent, with quiet weather
returning for Thursday and lasting into next week. Ensemble
forecasts show mainly upper level ridging, with some quasi-zonal
flow at times, holding into mid to late next week. High temperatures
are seasonal for the start of the forecast period, and increase to
above average for this time of year through mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 923 AM PST Wed Dec 3 2025

Another nice day to fly. High confidence in VFR conditions
through the TAF period. Offshore winds will continue for most
terminals, with a weak sea breeze likely to develop in the
afternoon. Easterly winds could be gusty overnight, but the
sustained winds should be gentle all day. High clouds will persist
through the TAF period for all terminals, but low clouds are very
unlikely with the dry, offshore flow.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions through the TAF period. A gentle
SE wind may shift to NE at times through the late morning. By 00Z,
there is a good chance for a sea breeze to flip the wind direction
to westerly, but that`s not a guarantee. The 16Z GFSLAMP guidance
does not have any onshore wind component throughout the forecast.
The TAF however nods to what happened yesterday under a similar
mesoscale set-up and eventually brings a sea breeze this evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Persistent high clouds should remain well
above the approach.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions through the TAF period.
Offshore winds should flip to northerly by early afternoon before
sliding back to easterly overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 923 AM PST Wed Dec 3 2025

Moderate NW winds will persist through the day and decrease to a
gentle breeze by Thursday. Rough seas in the outer waters will
gradually diminish overnight as the winds ease and westerly swell
abates. After a brief favorable weather window on Thursday,
northerly winds will increase to a fresh to strong breeze on
Friday, rebuilding moderate seas up to 8 feet.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 425 AM PST Wed Dec 3 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for the coastline
from Sonoma County to Monterey County through 10 PM PST Wednesday
evening. Breaking waves 10 to 14 feet, with long lulls of 10 to 20
minutes or more between largest sets can be expected. Some of the
favored break points may exceed 20 feet at times. Forerunners
will be 18+ seconds with heights of 2-5 feet into tonight
resulting in the greatest risk for sneaker waves. This combined
with high astronomical tides in the morning hours will increase
the aforementioned risk. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run
significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over
rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and
stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.

RGass

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for CAZ006-505-509-
     529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508-
     529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 3 PM PST Friday for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Flynn

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