025
FXUS63 KOAX 250516
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1116 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog and drizzle will linger into the morning
  across the Missouri Valley.

- Windy conditions Tuesday with gusts of 35 to 50 mph, highest
  in northeast Nebraska.

- Winter weather may impact travel Friday-Monday with
  significant uncertainty in the details at this time. Stay
  tuned to the forecast for latest updates.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for many locations along
the Missouri River Valley and vicinity. While areas of fog have
been spotty, visibility well below a quarter mile has been
reported at times. In addition, more widespread areas of a
quarter mile to a half mile visibility have been observed as
well. This fog will persist into the morning hours until wind
speeds increase with an approaching cold front by mid-morning.
Use caution on your morning commute!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Rain has largely moved off to the east this afternoon leaving
behind some patchy drizzle through the rest of the afternoon.
Satellite shows the upper-level wave currently centered over
central Kansas. This will continue off to the east this
evening, clearing out any lingering drizzle and low clouds.

What we`re watching next is another upper-level wave currently
moving into Wyoming. This system will develop a broad surface
Low over the Northern Plains with a strong pressure gradient on
the back side of the Low. Strong northwesterly winds are
forecast to develop, pushing into our area tomorrow morning, and
peaking through the afternoon. Expect winds 25 to 35 mph with
gusts to 50 mph over northeast Nebraska, with noticeably windy
but sub-advisory winds across the rest of our area. One thing to
watch is that several of the models show potential to mix down a
few gusts to 60+ mph in northeast Nebraska. For now going with a
Wind Advisory only, but if this signal becomes more prominent,
we may need to upgrade at least a portion of the Advisory to a
Warning and possibly expand the Advisory.

Winds should start to relax Tuesday evening as the gradient
begins to relax and we see the boundary layer become more
stable not allowing the stronger winds to mix down to the
surface. With colder air continuing to funnel in on the back
side of this system, though, expect temperatures to fall into
the low-to-mid 20s by Wednesday morning.

This will be the start of our cooler pattern ahead. The upper-
level pattern shows a ridge building over the western Rockies
midweek this week, only reinforcing northwesterly flow across
the Central Plains, helping to keep cooler temperatures in
place. Good news is we should remain dry Wednesday and through
Thanksgiving as a surface High expands eastward across the
Great Plains states behind the Tuesday system. Temperatures will
remain flat with highs in the 30s to low 40s across eastern
Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Overnight lows will drop into the
teens to low 20s.

The western Ridge weakens Friday as a shortwave busts through
across the Rockies. This will develop a surface low over eastern
Colorado that will be our second system that moves through later
this weekend. Up to the north on Friday we see another shortwave
bring a clipper-type Low down out of Alberta helping to develop
a band of frontogenetically-forced precipitation setting up from
somewhere near central North Dakota southeastward along or just
east of the Missouri River. With the cold air in place, this
should fall as snow, leading to travel concerns across much of
South Dakota into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. It`s still
way too early to talk amounts as a small shift in the track of
this system or where this band sets up will lead to
exponentially different snowfall amounts, but the Probabilistic
WSSI which utilizes a suite of ensemble forecast information
shows a 20-40% chance of at least minor impacts from winter
weather, and 40-70% chances from Sioux Falls southeastward into
eastern Iowa.

We`ll see another push of colder air move in behind this system
Friday night into Saturday with highs on Saturday dropping down
into the upper 20s to mid 30s. This is where models start to see
significant differences in how it handles the surface Low that
develops over Colorado. Ensembles are all over the place with
its track, with some taking it northeast right across our area while
others bring it across Kansas and Missouri. A more southerly
track would lead to a better accumulating snow scenario while a
more northern track could lead to a mixed-precip event for at
least some of our area and the rest of our area fighting with
dry air getting entrained into the back-side of the system. For
now, gust going with generic PoPs from the ensembles which keep
snow chances starting Friday through the weekend, even though
there will likely be significant dry periods as well. Confidence
is just too low to put any stock in the forecast beyond this
period, so left the ensemble forecast in for Monday as well
which keeps precip chances and cooler air in place.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Low ceilings have remained in place across most of the region.
Ceilings have been largely IFR, but have fallen to LIFR at
times, or increased to MVFR briefly. These low ceilings will
persist into the morning. Alongside the ceilings, areas of
drizzle and fog are reducing visibility to MVFR in many
locations, but brief reductions to IFR visibility are possible
as well. Ceilings and visibility will gradually improve near and
shortly after sunrise as wind speeds begin to increase. By mid-
morning, strong winds begin to overspread the area and will
quickly erode fog and clouds, returning everyone to VFR
conditions. Very strong northwest winds are anticipated across
the region through the afternoon into the evening. Wind speeds
will reach 20 to 30 kts with wind gusts approaching 45 kts,
especially with western extent.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Tuesday for NEZ015-018-033-
     034-044-045-051>053-067-068-091-093.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CST Tuesday for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065.
IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Tuesday for IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-090.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CST Tuesday for IAZ043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Chehak
DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Chehak