339
FXUS64 KOHX 180457
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1057 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1052 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

- Above-normal temperatures expected Tuesday through Friday.

- Increasing rain and thunderstorm chances Tuesday, mainly late
  afternoon and overnight. There is a very low risk of strong to
  severe storms north of I-40.

- Medium to high chances (40-80%) for rain and thunderstorms again
  Thursday through Friday night. Cooler and drier weather returns
  this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

An upper-level low is now advancing across the Central Plains
which is favoring the development of a shortwave ridge near our
region where warm advection aloft is ongoing. There`s also a few
showers and storms to our northwest near the 850 mb front. Hi-red
guidance suggests most activity tonight into tomorrow will remain
north of Middle TN where best frontal forcing will reside, though
we`ll certainly feel increasing temperatures and dewpoints through
the day owing to increasing/gusty southerly winds. Highs into the
70s are forecast west of the Plateau.

By tomorrow evening a narrow and gradually weakening warm sector
is expected to move east into Middle TN along with the weakening
surface low to our northwest. Nonetheless, showers and
thunderstorms are likely near the associated fronts as they move
southeast. Some potential for a strong or severe thunderstorm
exists due to marginal warm sector instability (250-500 MLCAPE)
and 30-40 kts eff. bulk shear, mainly north of I-40. Confidence on
severe threats is low due to the conditional nature of severe
parameters and diminishing forcing. Upper-level dynamics are well
to our east by Wednesday and we`ll be left with the stalled
surface boundary/trough under a strengthening ridge aloft. PoPs
for Wednesday are low but slowly increase Wednesday night thanks
to increasing warm air advection from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Deep-layer ridging will gradually shift east on Thursday with the
approach of another disturbance aloft from the Southwest. This
system will be moving in Thursday night, but from a farther south
position than the previous system. Showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to increase in coverage near the stalled front on
Thursday which should become a warm front lifting north Thursday
night. With increasing upper-forcing Thursday night into Friday,
guidance depicts a somewhat elongated surface low developing to
our west by Friday morning which would move east into our region
through the afternoon/evening. Though it`s still unclear exactly
how the system will evolve, PoPs remain medium to high Thursday
through Friday night thanks to available deep-layer moisture and
forcing considerations. We`ll continue to watch for any hazardous
weather during this period, particularly when medium-range
guidance suggests a strengthening low-level jet Friday into Friday
night which may overlap some instability.

A trend toward cooler, drier weather is expected this weekend
after the departure of this system Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Advertising VFR conditions across Middle TN airports through
period. Main flight impacts will be increasing S winds through
the morning and afternoon tomorrow with gusts 20-25 kts at times.
This will be due to a storm system near the Ohio River which will
gradually move southeast late tomorrow afternoon and overnight.
As such, increasing clouds are expected (ceilings 040-060) and
I`ve introduced PROB30s for expected SHRA/TSRA activity near the
approaching front. Best confidence is 00-06z and there`s low
probability for MVFR cigs toward the end of the period as well
(not in TAFs currently).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      46  73  60  74 /  10  20  60  10
Clarksville    48  72  58  71 /  20  50  70  10
Crossville     39  64  54  68 /   0  10  70  20
Columbia       47  75  60  77 /   0  10  40  10
Cookeville     42  68  57  70 /   0  20  70  10
Jamestown      40  65  54  68 /   0  20  80  20
Lawrenceburg   46  74  60  77 /   0  10  40   0
Murfreesboro   45  73  60  76 /   0  20  60  10
Waverly        49  72  58  72 /  10  30  60   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Sizemore