708
FXUS64 KOHX 022325
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
525 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 521 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

- Rain tapering off west to east this Sunday afternoon and
  evening.

- Areas of dense fog tonight into Monday morning.

- Dry most of the week. Warming up a little.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1025 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Late Sunday morning, low pressure circulation was evident on
satellite loops over southwest Middle Tennessee. This system was
responsible for the wet, gloomy wx. The low pressure will drift
southeast of our area by this evening, allowing rain to taper off,
or at least decrease to patchy drizzle. Most areas west of the
Plateau will get at least a few glimpses of sunshine this
afternoon. Still, it will be chilly with temperatures warming to
the mid 50s at best.

Surface high pressure will slide in overnight giving us a very
favorable setup for fog. Persistent low clouds may preclude dense
fog in some areas, but even partial clearing will result in rapid
formation of dense fog with very poor visibilities this evening
and overnight, and these impacts will continue through Monday
morning rush hour. Conditions will be quite chilly overnight with
lows mostly mid to upper 30s.

After low clouds and fog break up mid morning, Monday will turn
out pretty decent but cool. Highs will be only in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. This is around 5 degrees cooler than normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1025 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Dry wx will be in place Monday night through at least Thursday.
Temperatures will start chilly, but a midweek warmup to slightly
above normal levels will occur as steering winds become zonal.

We continue to look for a couple of late week / weekend fronts
that will sweep across the area pretty quickly. Models have been
inconsistent with the timing and strength of these features, so
the forecast comes with very low confidence. The latest NBM blend
shows the first front Friday into Saturday then the next for
Sunday. These fronts look strong enough to produce a good chance
for showers and some storms. Right now, moisture depth and
instability appear to be lacking for any severe storm threat, but
given the dynamics / wind energy with these fronts, that could
change if things line up a little differently than current models
show.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Western terminals will see clouds decrease during the evening with
mainly clear skies overnight. Western terminals will see a low to
medium chances for patchy dense fog between 09 and 13z with the
better chance outside of the Nashville metro. Low clouds will
build in over the Plateau as the evening goes on and IFR/LIFR
cigs are expected after 06z. They will also see periods of dense
fog between 06 and 15z. All terminals will see VFR conditions by
15z with clear skies by the afternoon. Light winds overnight
increase up to 8 knots out of the west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      38  63  39  69 /  10   0   0   0
Clarksville    35  62  37  69 /  10   0   0   0
Crossville     38  56  34  63 /  20   0   0   0
Columbia       34  62  35  69 /  10   0   0   0
Cookeville     38  57  35  65 /  20   0   0   0
Jamestown      38  56  35  63 /  20   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   35  62  34  69 /  10   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   37  62  35  69 /  20   0   0   0
Waverly        34  60  37  67 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Mueller