011
FXUS66 KOTX 262306
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
306 PM PST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow impacting travel in the East Slopes and along Hwy 20
  tonight through Thanksgiving then Lookout Pass Thursday night
  into Friday morning.

- Colder temperatures over weekend into next week with
  occasional chances for snow showers.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Precipitation moves in Wednesday night through Thanksgiving. A
mix of rain and snow is expected for the northern mountain
valleys and additional light snow over mountain passes resulting
in minor impacts to travel. A dry, cold air push will bring
colder temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Friday:  A potent low pressure system is tracking
across the Eastern Pacific toward the WA Coast and is expected
to make landfall Thursday afternoon. The system will deliver
additional rounds of precipitation to the region coming in the
form of rain and snow. Where snow falls will be a bit more
complex vs the Tuesday-Wednesday morning system. A weak midlevel
warm front will lift south to north over the region overnight
bringing the first round of light precipitation. Many lowlands
across the northern mountains and East Slopes were socked in low
clouds today. This kept temperatures varying from 32-35F vs the
upper 30s and lower 40s. Models suggest midlevel temperatures
for areas along and north of Hwy 20 and within the upper river
valleys of the East Slopes including Leavenworth, Winthrop,
Republic, Ione, and Bonners Ferry are expected to remain near 0C
or colder. As such, the forecast has been adjusted to lower
snow levels and maintain snow as the p-type though accumulations
with the first wave of moisture will likely be low with snow
falling with temperatures near or just above freezing and weak
ascent through the dendritic layer. Heavier precipitation will
arrive through the day on Thursday as the low nears the coast
and pushes a cold occluding front inland. Forcing ahead and
along the occluded front will ramp up, especially through the
dendritic layer while easterly winds dam cooler air into the E
Slopes. This combination will work against rising snow levels
blasting northward north of the International border and it
conceivable that upper reaches of the Methow Valley, Republic
Area, Upper Pend Oreille River Valley, and Porthill/Bonners
Ferry area experience multiple hours of snow from late tonight
into Thursday night. Intensities will vary over time which will
limit accum due to temperatures wavering from 32-35F; would not
rule out 1-3 inches for these lowlands with local amounts in
excess of 5 inches on the higher benches and peaks including
Washington, Loup Loup, and Sherman Passes and this is reflected
in the latest forecast. If you are traveling over these passes,
please be prepared for snowy travel. The warmer air will have an
easier time working into the Cascade passes for Hwy 2 and I-90
where temperatures are already near 33F and not expected to
cool. Snow is in the forecast for tonight but a transition to
rain is expected with light slushy, accumulations. Lookout Pass
is also near 33F with wet snow expected with the warm front but
minor impacts are expected as snow levels will have ample time
to rise before the heavier precipitation arrives Thursday
afternoon. For the remainder of the lowlands, weather impacts
will come in the form of patchy dense fog and light to moderate
rains.

The remnants of the low pressure system will track through the Inland
NW Thursday night into Friday morning and depart to the southeast.
Gusty northerly winds will be drawn into the departing system
with speeds magnified down the Okanogan Valley where gusts will
be on the order of 20-30 mph. These northerly winds will draw
cooler air back into the region with snow levels falling over
the lower Idaho Panhandle and Blue Mountains and periods of
moderate snow in the mountains. Greatest impacts to Lookout Pass
will come Thursday night into Friday morning where 4-6 inches
of snow is expected to fall. The higher benches of the Camas
Prairie will also see a transition to wet snow with potential
for an inch. The remainder of the region will dry out with clear
skies. The increased winds will also deliver increased
probabilities to scour out low clouds and fog.

Saturday-Sunday: A ridge of high pressure will amplify over the
E Pacific placing the INW under northwest flow aloft. There is
good agreement of another shortwave dropping down from the
northwest on Saturday, generally quick hitter, fashion. This
will bring a renewed threat for snow showers to the Cascades and
anywhere from a trace to two inches. The flow pattern would
also favor the rising terrain of the Camas Prairie and Blue
Mountains for a quick tenth of QPF and light snow accumulations
above 2500 feet. Breezy north to northeast winds will continue
to draw cooler continental air in from the north and east.

Monday-Thursday: There is good agreement amongst the ensembles
for the upper-level ridge to waver around over the Eastern
Pacific and at times, flop over into the coastal Pac NW. This
will result in near to below normal temperatures for the Inland
NW through the period with occasional chances for weaker waves
to drop in from the northwest bringing rain and snow showers.
When these waves are not present, there are increased odds for
dry and chilly conditions and periods of afternoon sunshine. /sb




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs: An extremely moist boundary layer coupled with warming
midlevels over light lowland snow will result in high
probabilities for low ceilings (LIFR/IFR) conditions from KCOE-
KGEG with low confidence in exact details with the forecast
through 06z. A deepening low off the WA Coast will result in
increasing easterly winds which leads to higher confidence for
KPUW and KLWS to see improvements though on the contrary, this
will lead to lowering cigs for KEAT and areas across the Basin
including KMWH will be in the cross-hairs with moderate
confidence for periodic improvement. A warm front lifts through
06-10z delivering another band of light rain to the lowlands
snow in the mountains. The period of rain comes with low to
moderate confidence to briefly break up the low clouds but as
the rain departs to the north, cigs are likely to lower again.
/sb



.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is
moderate confidence in MVFR to LIFR through the TAF period for
all sites except for KLWS. For KPUW, there is moderate to high
confidence for rising cigs (HREF has 100% chance to rise above
1000 feet) and maintain 6SM or higher due to persistent easterly
winds. KMWH comes with lower confidence and only 70% for cigs
above 1000 feet. Biggest uncertainty will impacts on vis and
cigs with rain overnight and how quickly conditions deteriorate
in the wake of the rain.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        35  41  35  42  25  36 /  40  90  90  40   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  35  41  35  40  24  35 /  50  90 100  70  10  10
Pullman        36  44  36  40  27  38 /  50  60 100  90  20  20
Lewiston       39  49  40  46  32  41 /  40  30  90  80  10  10
Colville       27  39  28  42  21  37 /  40 100  90  20   0  10
Sandpoint      31  39  31  39  21  32 /  50 100 100  80  10  10
Kellogg        37  44  36  39  23  35 /  60  90 100  90  20  20
Moses Lake     37  43  35  46  28  40 /  40  90  70  20   0  20
Wenatchee      36  41  37  45  32  38 /  70  90  80  10   0  20
Omak           33  39  32  43  27  37 /  50  90  60   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$