410
FXUS64 KOUN 100630
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1230 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1228 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

 - Hard freeze this morning, cool temperatures this afternoon.

 - Breezy conditions and elevated fire weather Tuesday.

 - Near-record heat possible late this week with dry weather
   through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1228 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

An impressive 1036 mb high pressure is entrenched across Tornado
Alley tonight from southern Manitoba into central Texas.
Temperatures have already fallen below freezing in most spots. With
no cloud cover expected the rest of the night and dewpoints near 20,
those overnight lows will continue to plunge into the hard freeze
category.

Height rises will occur this afternoon as the upper-level trough
migrates eastward. The High Plains will return to the eastern
periphery of the subtropical ridge with at least weak lee troughing
developing. The subsequent chinook front won`t provide much warming
to our area, but far western Oklahoma and western north Texas will
likely have the warmest high temperatures of the afternoon near 55-
60. The rest of us will be close to 50.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1228 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Northwest flow will continue during the day on Tuesday, prompting a
1010 mb surface trough to develop. That may not sound terribly
impressive, but when viewed against the antecedent high pressure,
that`s an impressive 24-hour bout of surface pressure falls.
Speaking of that high pressure, it will be over the Gulf Coast,
leaving us with a strong pressure gradient (particularly from
central Oklahoma southwestward). This will emulate a "dry return
flow" pattern for fire weather, with temperatures chinooking well
into the 70s near the 100th meridian amid low-30s dewpoints (RH near
20 percent). Winds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph are expected -
one would normally expect stronger winds with such a tight pressure
gradient, but mixed-layer depths are rather shallow. All told, this
will lead to elevate fire weather in an emergent fire landscape
across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas.

As is wont to happen during northwest flow regimes, a weak frontal
boundary will reach our area tomorrow night. Guidance right now
suggests that the boundary will stall in central or southern
portions of our area with weak east winds and sunny skies. That
should be enough for another warm (albeit not as warm) day.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1228 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

More of the same on Thursday, as mid-level flow becomes more zonal
and allows deep lee troughing to develop. Everywhere should see
highs well into the 70s and our Texas counties are likely to get
into the 80s. The primary limiting factor for fire weather will be
the return of a partially modified Gulf airmass with dewpoints
ranging from the mid-40s to low 60s. A deeper trough will reach the
western US during the day on Friday. Mass response in advance of
that trough will bring in even more modified Gulf air to our eastern
counties. West of the sharpening dryline, wind gusts of 30+ mph and
near-record heat are expected.

The next pattern break looks to arrive this weekend as the western
trough swings eastward into the Great Plains. This will bring our
first chance of rain and storms in quite some time. Some
uncertainties regarding timing of the trough/Pacific frontal passage
remain, but ensembles all agree that there will be a warm sector
favorable for convection ahead of the trough`s passage.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 922 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR conditions to continue.

Light north winds will continue overnight into the day tomorrow
before surface ridge axis shifts east allowing south winds to
return from west to east across the area Monday afternoon. These
south winds will increase tomorrow evening, especially across the
west where gusts over 20kts will be likely by the end of the
forecast period. A few high clouds will be possible from time to
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  49  37  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         56  39  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  56  40  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           56  40  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     46  33  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         53  36  69  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30