522
FXUS64 KOUN 020608
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
108 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1258 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

 - Unseasonably warm temperatures and mainly dry conditions to
   persist through the early weekend.

-  Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning late
   Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Modest low-level warm air advection and the exit region of enhanced
flow around 300 mb, has resulted in scattered clouds around 10K
feet. Evening soundings suggest weak elevated instability around
250-500 J/kg or enough for a few thunderstorms. The upper flow is
expected to weaken through sunrise and shift slowly south and
east. Will maintain low PoPs across mainly northern Oklahoma
through about 9 am. Otherwise, the currently cloud cover is
expected to erode this morning with mainly clear conditions by
afternoon. Very warm to hot afternoon temperatures will occur with
highs in the lower to mid 90s.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

A mid-level ridge axis will be centered over Oklahoma late Thursday
through at least early Saturday. This will bring well-above
average temperatures and dry conditions. Temperatures each day
will generally range from the upper 80s to lower 90s with
overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s. One notable difference
Friday into Saturday will be a stronger southerly wind, especially
on Saturday. This will be in response to a trough lifting across
the Rockies and into the northern Plains. Although decent height
falls will occur across the southern Plains, rain and storm
chances Saturday afternoon and night will remain very low (less
than 15%)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

On Sunday, a cold front is expected to approach or perhaps move into
portions of northern Oklahoma.  As a result, low chances of showers
and storms will remain in the forecast, mainly for northwestern
Oklahoma.  It unlikely there will be enough organized convection to
push the front farther south into Oklahoma.  It`s possible the
frontal boundary will stall or lift back to the north on Monday.
Tuesday into early Wednesday, a clipper-like system will move across
the northern Plains/Upper midwest.  This system, along with perhaps
a shortwave trough moving across the Rockies/central Plains, will
push a frontal boundary farther south into Oklahoma.  This will
bring additional chances of showers and storms Tuesday into
Wednesday.  Rain and storm chances will remain on the low side for
now (20-30%).  The front should also cool temperatures several
degrees, especially across the northern half of Oklahoma.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

VFR conditions and generally light south/southeasterly winds are
expected. A few showers and a storm have recently developed east
of KWWR. This activity is not anticipated to reach other TAF
locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  65  89  64 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         92  63  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  91  64  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           91  64  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     90  64  91  64 /  20   0   0   0
Durant OK         90  65  89  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...01