714
FXUS64 KOUN 011918
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
218 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Monitoring a few surface/satellite features early this afternoon
that might give some clues as to what will happen during the
overnight period. A diffuse dryline feature is noted on surface
observations and zero-hour model analyses near the 100th meridian .
Dewpoints on the west side are in the mid-50s, and on the east side
they are in the low-to-mid 60s. Meanwhile, satellite shows the
development of several fields of cumulus clouds across western
Oklahoma and southwestern Kansas. These features are telling in the
face of wildly divergent model guidance regarding thermodynamics
this afternoon and evening. The HRRR suggests widespread mixing with
dewpoints ending up in the upper 40s, while the NAM suggests a
solution that seems more in line with current observations.
Therefore, some credence is given to the NAM`s depiction of about
1,500 J/kg of "skinny" CAPE this evening.

The current expectation is for storms to continue to develop across
the high terrain just east of the Rockies (right now satellite shows
a line of updrafts across the lee of the Sangre de Cristos) and move
east-southeastward across the Plains this evening, generally
organizing into a squall line. Sustenance of this MCS will be aided
by the development of a 30-40 knot southerly LLJ this evening across
the TX panhandle. CAM guidance has the MCS reaching northwest
Oklahoma after 10:00 pm this evening, but there`s quite a bit of
question about how far it progresses. Given the fact that the LLJ
does not appear like it will extend eastward into our area tonight,
there is some indication that the MCS will turn south from northwest
Oklahoma and weaken as it does so. With that said, damaging wind
gusts and hail to the size of quarters are possible with this
activity, primarily between 10:00 pm and 2:00 am.

These storms may leave behind an MCV tomorrow morning (after all,
what`s one more MCV after all of the ones we`ve had recently?).
There may be a secondary maximum in storm potential tomorrow morning
somewhere further to the south and east around central Oklahoma.
While the severe risk with this potential round would likely be on
the lower end, the chance for lightning and heavy rain will be
watched closely.

Expect a little more in the way of return flow tomorrow afternoon to
bring in low-70s dewpoints across most of the area. This should at
least keep highs from getting well into the 90s, so one more day in
the upper 80s can be expected. Traditional HREF CAMs are bearish on
the potential for storms to develop, but by all measure of the
ingredients, there will be plenty of moisture/instability in place
to sustain whatever forms off to our west. In contrast to previous
nights, the LLJ should be rather strong across much of our area.
Therefore, tomorrow evening will be watched closely for MCS
potential once more.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

If you`re looking for an end to stratus and low-to-medium chances
for storms, then the end is potentially in sight. Of course, the
trade-off is that we could see highs rising well into the 90s by the
middle of next week, but you don`t get one good thing with
the weather without sacrificing another this time of year.

Another weak signal for an MCS coming south out of Kansas into north
central Oklahoma was evident on the 12Z HREF early Monday morning.
As with all of the other signals for storms, we`ll watch this
closely. In all likelihood, there will be a remnant outflow boundary
left behind by all of these storms on Monday afternoon. Given the
rich boundary-layer moisture content, an earlier-developing LLJ, and
the presence of the boundary, we might shake things up on Monday
afternoon and evening by seeing storms actually develop in our area
instead of moving in from elsewhere. There is currently a Marginal
(Level 1/5) risk of severe weather associated with this, and we`ll
continue to monitor.

From there, we look likely to enter at least the northern periphery
of the subtropical ridge, which will be centered somewhere over the
Stake Plains from Tuesday through Thursday. Though the mid-latitude
jet won`t retreat too far north, introducing some uncertainty and
potential for northwest flow storms, right now the model consensus
is that the middle of next week will be drier, sunnier, and hotter
than the last week or so has been. Predictability begins to decrease
toward the end of next week, but there is some signal for a trough
to dig in to our northeast, which could bring us back into a
slightly cooler northwest flow pattern.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

VFR/MVFR ceilings expected this TAF period. Winds will generally
be from the south and southeast although shifting winds are
expected with storms and/or boundaries moving across the area due
to storms. An area of showers/storms will continue to affect areas
along the Red River early this afternoon. A few additional storms
may develop late this afternoon/early evening in central OK.
However, the higher chances for storms will be later this evening
into Sunday morning as a complex(es) of storms move across the
area although there is some uncertainty on how far east and
southeast this activity will go. Strong winds will be possible
with the storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  86  69  90 /  30  30  30  30
Hobart OK         67  89  67  94 /  30  30  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  70  89  71  93 /  10  30  30  10
Gage OK           65  90  66  94 /  50  20  20  30
Ponca City OK     67  86  69  88 /  30  30  40  40
Durant OK         68  88  71  88 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...25