301
FXUS64 KOUN 022003
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
203 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 158 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

 - A cold front Wednesday will bring colder weather into Thursday.
   Breezy post-frontal winds may give way to wind chills between
   single digit to 20s.

 - Freezing drizzle Wednesday evening into Thursday morning may
   lead to slick roadways, especially elevated surfaces such as
   bridges, during the Thursday morning commute.

 - Wintry precipitation chances continue Thursday with the
   greatest chances across portions of western Oklahoma and into
   adjacent portions of western north Texas.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 158 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Weak ridging will continue to slide east across the Southern Plains
this afternoon. Lee troughing continues to strengthen across eastern
CO/NM with the next upper shortwave digging into the Pacific
northwest. Overall, a pleasant weather day today with highs in the
50s, sunny skies and breezy winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to
25 to 30 mph, especially across western Oklahoma and into western
north Texas. Tonight, increasing mid-level clouds with a return to
southwesterly flow aloft and increasing Pacific moisture. Chilly
temperatures by Wednesday morning with most areas below freezing and
accompanied by wind chills in the teens to 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 158 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

The cold front is still progged to enter northwest Oklahoma early
Wednesday morning as the surface low is pushed eastward by the
incoming shortwave. Temperatures will peak around midday across the
northern portions of the forecast area with maximum temperatures
peaking in the mid to upper 40s. With the delayed cold air, high
temperatures across the southern portions of Oklahoma and into
western north Texas will be in the 50s. Low-level moisture will
increase behind the front with increasing low clouds and a potential
for drizzle as early as the afternoon hours from north to south with
the passing front. Where temperatures drop below freezing going into
Wednesday night and early Thursday morning, freezing drizzle may be
possible. Thus, a light glaze on roadways, especially on elevated
surfaces and roadways, may be possible across portions of Oklahoma
and into western north Texas by the Thursday morning commute. Winds
will remain breezy out of the north on Wednesday night with wind
chills near the single digits to lower 20s.

Heading into Thursday, the shortwave will approach the forecast area
with increasing deep layer moisture to the dendritic growth zone and
ascent. There is still some uncertainty in the depth of moisture,
which would play a key role in the precipitation types.
Precipitation chances will spread eastward through the afternoon
before dry air fills in behind the shortwave. The temperature
forecast and strength of the cold air advection will play a key role
in ice pellets, snow, freezing rain, etc. Ensemble guidance has a
low-to-medium (20-60%) chance of measurable snowfall (greater than
0.1"). Worst case scenario snowfall amounts are about 1-2" across
southwestern Oklahoma and into adjacent portions of western north
Texas and then less than 1" across portions of western and into
central/southern Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1212 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

By Friday and Saturday, temperatures are expected to rebound back
up into the 50s to 60s, with dry conditions. Another cold front
will move in Saturday evening, knocking temperatures down a few
degrees on Sunday. Dry conditions will continue through the
weekend and into the early portions of next week.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

All of our terminals should remain in a VFR category through the
entire forecast period.

A surface low lee of the Colorado/New Mexico Rockies will
maintain south-southwest surface winds through the next 6-hours
at 10 kts gusting to 15kts. After 00Z surface winds will back
south-southeast decreasing 5-10 kts. A low-level jet is expected
to increase out of the south by 06Z which could produce low-level
wind shear conditions impacting all terminals except for KCSM &
KWWR for about 6 hours. A cold front will start approaching
northwest Oklahoma around 12Z producing a northerly wind shift at
15 kts gusting to 25 kts behind the front. Expecting the frontal
boundary/wind shift to have moved through terminals KWWR and KCSM
by 16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  30  49  25  35 /   0  10  10  20
Hobart OK         29  52  24  38 /   0  10  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  36  58  31  41 /   0   0  10  20
Gage OK           25  46  20  37 /   0  10  10  20
Ponca City OK     27  47  20  34 /   0  10  10  10
Durant OK         32  58  33  42 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...68