313
FXUS64 KOUN 221109
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
509 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 506 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

- Another round of rainfall is likely on Sunday into Monday morning
      along with a risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash
      flooding.

- Turning cooler towards middle of next week with low temperatures
      near the freezing mark.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Cool surface high will remain overhead today with shortwave ridging
aloft making for a pleasant day, albeit a little cooler than
yesterday across much of the area. Exception being northwest
Oklahoma where less cloud cover, at least by mid-morning, and low
level warm advection will lead to warmer temperatures by afternoon.
Farther east could see some lingering low clouds during the morning
into possibly midday, delaying the daytime warm up. Mainly 60s
expected for highs across the area Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Models continue their struggle with timing of the closed upper low
over the southwest. Latest solutions are a bit slower with ejecting
the low, bringing it into to the four corners area by midday Sunday
and into southern Colorado by late in the day. Models also show very
little if any height falls through the night Saturday night, and
with low level jet well to the west of the area across west Texas,
Saturday night looks to remain dry and much of the precip may even
hold off until Sunday afternoon across western Oklahoma.

Main upper low then continues to trek northeast into the central
Plains Sunday evening, with a rather large dry slot across west
Texas into western Oklahoma northward into Kansas. This will likely
limit overall precip amounts across much of the western half of the
area. Exception to this may be south-central into southeast Oklahoma
as a piece of energy rotates around the base of the trough into the
southern Plains Sunday evening. This along with strong low level waa
developing in that same area should lead to a period of potentially
heavier rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Rain chances end early in the day Monday across the west, but could
linger through much of the day across the southeast. As storm system
exits to the east, a stronger cold front will push south through the
area Tuesday. This will bring some actual colder than normal
temperatures to Oklahoma and north Texas for the middle of the week.
Another hard freeze will likely occur Wednesday morning across
northwest Oklahoma. Mainly low/mid 50s expected Wednesday for highs
with some rebound in temps expected for Thanksgiving day with highs
in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Cool surface high shifts east by Friday
with a return of south winds, which could become quite breezy, and a
few more degrees of warming as we end the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 506 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Stratus has overspread the region with MVFR (sometimes IFR)
ceilings. This is expected to gradually clear west to east through
the late morning and afternoon. Wins are mainly light and
northwesterly, though a few gusts to 20 mph have been observed
this morning. Winds will become more variable in direction
tonight.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  60  42  64  52 /   0   0  30  90
Hobart OK         65  39  64  50 /   0   0  70  70
Wichita Falls TX  66  42  67  53 /   0   0  70  90
Gage OK           64  37  62  45 /   0   0  70  40
Ponca City OK     60  39  64  50 /   0   0   0  80
Durant OK         65  45  67  54 /   0   0  10  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14