165
FXUS65 KPUB 062349
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
549 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and cloudy east of the mountains Tuesday with some
  overnight/early morning showers, drizzle, and fog along the
  east slopes and adjacent plains in the morning, otherwise warm
  and dry out west.

- Warming and drying trend through the rest of the week.

- Uncertainty increases closer to this weekend, with the
  possibility of better moisture moving into our region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Upper trough to our NW will weaken as it shears out to our
northeast tonight and Tue. As the southern extension of it
glances by, and southern stream energy in southwest flow passes
to our south, southern CO comes under the influence of weak
overrunning within a saturated layer. Stratus will fill in and
or thicken again across the plains this evening and overnight,
and lift induced showers will overspread the southeast plains
through early Tuesday morning. There is some elevated CAPE aloft
if th overrunning can break the cap, so some embedded thunder
across our southern tier counties is not out of the question,
especially across Baca and Las Animas counties. Brief moderate
to heavy rainfall and lightning would be the primary risks.
Meanwhile, upslope induced showers/drizzle and fog will be
possible along the mountain plains interface to the north of our
southern tier counties. QPF amounts will remain light in these
areas. Temperatures will remain cool again with persistent
cloud cover lingering across the plains most of the day, though
some breaks are likely along the north slopes of the Raton Ridge
as flow becomes more southerly in the afternoon.

Meanwhile, the western mountains will be warmer and drier with
breezy afternoon winds.  Moisture increasing from the south may be
sufficient for some isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms across the southern mountains but these should weaken
quickly as they push off into the cooler airmass east of the
mountains.  Have gone closer to the cooler NBM members and guidance
for highs. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025


Wednesday Onwards...

High pressure and upper-level ridging will continue building in over
our region through the latter half of the week. Temperatures will
continue to increase, with highs climbing back into the 70s-80s,
while most of the area remains dry aside from our western mountains.
Main uncertainty in the long term will be the behavior of the
tropical cyclone remnants from the southern Pacific. Long-term
models disagree on whether to eject the main circulation further
west or carry the moisture into our region through the jet. Models
diverge greatly on this after about Thursday-Friday, but it is
possible that at least some of the moisture will make its way
towards us, bringing wetter and potentially cooler conditions later
this weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Cool easterly upslope flow will again develop MVFR/IFR cigs at
COS and PUB through the evening hours, with IFR/LIFR conditions
expected by 06Z. Will also dee reduced vis in -dz br through the
overnight hours, with vis improving by 15Z and gradual lifting
of cigs to VFR/MVFR through the afternoon hours.

VFR conditions are expected at ALS over the next 24 hours.
Breezy southwest winds to diminish through the evening, with
generally light diurnal winds through the overnight hours and
breezy southwesterly winds once again aft 18Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...