


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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866 FXUS65 KPUB 152126 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 326 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorm risk continues across the high country, high mountain valleys, and I-25 corridor this evening, along with a continued risk for flooding over the San Juans. - Low to medium chance for strong to severe thunderstorms over the far southeast plains on Thursday, finally drying out across the mountains and valleys. - Dry and cooler with frost and freezes possible across portions of the I-25 corridor and SE plains Sat and Sun mornings. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 325 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Broad southwesterly flow in place out ahead of a large upper level low over the southwest continues to support additional shower and thunderstorm development over the higher terrain, especially the southwest mountains, this afternoon. Shortwave energy which traversed this flow earlier today did support higher intensity development, with some periods of heavier rainfall. In the wake of this departing energy, we since seen intensity lower. Elsewhere across the region, this southwesterly flow with lacking low/mid level focus has kept most areas dry. These trends will hold for a couple of more hours, but as this upper level low shifts further to the east and upper jet swings through, should see ascent and precip development to once again increase by late afternoon. With this increasing ascent, SBCAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg bisecting southern Colorado, and with high shear values of 35-50kt, think the risk of strong to severe storms will remain this afternoon into the early evening time frame. Highest chances for this risk during this time frame will be west of I-25, with gusts to 55 to 65 mph along with hail up to the size of ping-pong balls still the main hazards. While still can`t rule the possibility of a brief tornado over all the southern mountains and southern half of the San Luis Valley, think this risk will be lowering during the remaining afternoon hours. Did continue the Flood Watch for possible flash flooding over the southwest mountains given the likely increasing intensity still to come. However, it does look as if the more intense showers and storms begin to focus more to the east through the evening hours. So, it`s possible that this Watch could be cancelled early, from its current midnight end time. Moving forward more into the evening, there does remain a chance for at least isolated strong to potentially severe storms across the I- 25 corridor. Trends are showing that the previously mentioned lacking low/mid level focus is changing and may continue to do so this evening, with latest observations showing lee troughing occurring at this time. Latest guidance showing this trend continuing into the evening, and with short term CAMs bringing returns into the I-25 corridor. By this time frame, previously mentioned shear and instability will still be in place through mid evening, again keeping the risk of strong to severe storms in place. Risk should lower after this time frame, as instability lowers and drier air begins to move into the region. Upper low/trough will progress through the region on Thursday, with a drying and cooling trend continuing. While this will bring cooler temps to the region, above normal temps are still likely. Did raise temps a few degrees and given the arrival of the drier air, did lower dewpoints, which is continuing critical RH values along and east of the I-25 corridor. This will keep at least an elevated fire risk in this location Thursday afternoon, with some possibility of critical fire weather development. With lacking confidence on the strength of the winds, think the chance of widespread or long lasting critical fire weather development is low at this time. This could change, however, and will continue to closely monitor later trends. Lastly, moisture and instability axis do look to linger over the far southeast plains on Thursday, as this upper trough swings through. This will provide additional risks of strong to severe storms Thursday afternoon, though looking to be more isolated and confined closer to the CO and KS border. At this time, highest chances look to be along and east of a line from La Junta to Kim, with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 321 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Thunderstorms should push east into KS by midnight. A cold front will drop through the plains Thursday evening and with clear skies, it will be a crisp morning on Fri, especially across the mountains and valleys where winds are more likely to decouple and temperatures dip into the 20s and even teens. Northerly winds should keep lows mainly in the 40s across the plains but will need to keep a close eye on the Palmer Divide where a frost will be possible if winds decouple quickly enough. Temperatures will be cooler for Friday into the weekend with the potential for frost or a light freeze across the I-25 corridor and portions of the southeast plains both Saturday and Sunday mornings. The Palmer and perhaps the Raton ridges could see some patchy frost or a light freeze Saturday morning, with NBM probabilities up to 30 percent. However, this seems to stay confined to the higher elevations near the mountains. Odds increase Sunday morning for a frost or freeze with probabilities of 30-50% across most of the Southeast plains except Prowers and Baca counties. Frost or freeze highlights will need to be considered both nights, but especially Sat night/Sun morning. Otherwise, it will remain dry across the region. Temperatures warm for Sun then drop back below normal again early next week as a messy pattern of hard to time troughs move through the region bringing the possibility of showers to the mountains and cooler temperatures for all areas. Operational GFS seems the outlier of the longer range models as it is slower and more amplified with the next trough as it phases northern and southern stream energy across the western U.S. and moves it across CO Mon Night/Tue. EC and Canadian favor a faster northern stream trough with less phasing. GEFS seems to support the EC, EPS and Canadian suite which suggests a quicker system, and more of a cool down for the middle of next week. So we may be flirting with more frosts and light freezes for the southeast plains, and a more gradual influx of Pacific moisture from a southern stream upper low by mid week. -KT && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1111 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Main concern during this period will be the breezy to windy synoptic winds occurring this afternoon into early evening and once again redeveloping tomorrow afternoon at the 3 taf sites. There will be the potential for passing convective showers which could cause gusts up to 35 to 45 knts late this afternoon and into the evening hours. Otherwise expect VFR during a large majority of the TAF fcst period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ067-068. && $$ SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...HODANISH