866
FXUS65 KPUB 152126
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
326 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorm risk continues across the high country,
  high mountain valleys, and I-25 corridor this evening, along
  with a continued risk for flooding over the San Juans.

- Low to medium chance for strong to severe thunderstorms over
  the far southeast plains on Thursday, finally drying out
  across the mountains and valleys.

- Dry and cooler with frost and freezes possible across
  portions of the I-25 corridor and SE plains Sat and Sun
  mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 325 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Broad southwesterly flow in place out ahead of a large upper
level low over the southwest continues to support additional
shower and thunderstorm development over the higher terrain,
especially the southwest mountains, this afternoon. Shortwave
energy which traversed this flow earlier today did support
higher intensity development, with some periods of heavier
rainfall. In the wake of this departing energy, we since seen
intensity lower. Elsewhere across the region, this southwesterly
flow with lacking low/mid level focus has kept most areas dry.
These trends will hold for a couple of more hours, but as this
upper level low shifts further to the east and upper jet swings
through, should see ascent and precip development to once again
increase by late afternoon. With this increasing ascent, SBCAPE
of 1000-1500 j/kg bisecting southern Colorado, and with high
shear values of 35-50kt, think the risk of strong to severe
storms will remain this afternoon into the early evening time
frame.

Highest chances for this risk during this time frame will be
west of I-25, with gusts to 55 to 65 mph along with hail up to
the size of ping-pong balls still the main hazards. While still
can`t rule the possibility of a brief tornado over all the
southern mountains and southern half of the San Luis Valley,
think this risk will be lowering during the remaining afternoon
hours. Did continue the Flood Watch for possible flash flooding
over the southwest mountains given the likely increasing
intensity still to come. However, it does look as if the more
intense showers and storms begin to focus more to the east
through the evening hours. So, it`s possible that this Watch
could be cancelled early, from its current midnight end time.

Moving forward more into the evening, there does remain a
chance for at least isolated strong to potentially severe storms
across the I- 25 corridor. Trends are showing that the
previously mentioned lacking low/mid level focus is changing and
may continue to do so this evening, with latest observations
showing lee troughing occurring at this time. Latest guidance
showing this trend continuing into the evening, and with short
term CAMs bringing returns into the I-25 corridor. By this time
frame, previously mentioned shear and instability will still be
in place through mid evening, again keeping the risk of strong
to severe storms in place. Risk should lower after this time
frame, as instability lowers and drier air begins to move into
the region.

Upper low/trough will progress through the region on Thursday,
with a drying and cooling trend continuing. While this will
bring cooler temps to the region, above normal temps are still
likely. Did raise temps a few degrees and given the arrival of
the drier air, did lower dewpoints, which is continuing critical
RH values along and east of the I-25 corridor. This will keep
at least an elevated fire risk in this location Thursday
afternoon, with some possibility of critical fire weather
development. With lacking confidence on the strength of the
winds, think the chance of widespread or long lasting critical
fire weather development is low at this time. This could change,
however, and will continue to closely monitor later trends.
Lastly, moisture and instability axis do look to linger over the
far southeast plains on Thursday, as this upper trough swings
through. This will provide additional risks of strong to severe
storms Thursday afternoon, though looking to be more isolated
and confined closer to the CO and KS border. At this time,
highest chances look to be along and east of a line from La
Junta to Kim, with large hail and damaging winds the primary
hazards.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 321 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Thunderstorms should push east into KS by midnight. A cold
front will drop through the plains Thursday evening and with
clear skies, it will be a crisp morning on Fri, especially
across the mountains and valleys where winds are more likely to
decouple and temperatures dip into the 20s and even teens.
Northerly winds should keep lows mainly in the 40s across the
plains but will need to keep a close eye on the Palmer Divide
where a frost will be possible if winds decouple quickly enough.

Temperatures will be cooler for Friday into the weekend with the
potential for frost or a light freeze across the I-25 corridor and
portions of the southeast plains both Saturday and Sunday mornings.
The Palmer and perhaps the Raton ridges could see some patchy frost
or a light freeze Saturday morning, with NBM probabilities up to 30
percent. However, this seems to stay confined to the higher
elevations near the mountains. Odds increase Sunday morning for
a frost or freeze with probabilities of 30-50% across most of
the Southeast plains except Prowers and Baca counties. Frost or
freeze highlights will need to be considered both nights, but
especially Sat night/Sun morning. Otherwise, it will remain dry
across the region.

Temperatures warm for Sun then drop back below normal again
early next week as a messy pattern of hard to time troughs move
through the region bringing the possibility of showers to the
mountains and cooler temperatures for all areas. Operational GFS
seems the outlier of the longer range models as it is slower
and more amplified with the next trough as it phases northern
and southern stream energy across the western U.S. and moves it
across CO Mon Night/Tue. EC and Canadian favor a faster northern
stream trough with less phasing. GEFS seems to support the EC,
EPS and Canadian suite which suggests a quicker system, and more
of a cool down for the middle of next week. So we may be
flirting with more frosts and light freezes for the southeast
plains, and a more gradual influx of Pacific moisture from a
southern stream upper low by mid week. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Main concern during this period will be the breezy to windy
synoptic winds occurring this afternoon into early evening
and once again redeveloping tomorrow afternoon at the 3 taf
sites. There will be the potential for passing convective
showers which could cause gusts up to 35 to 45 knts late this
afternoon and into the evening hours. Otherwise expect VFR
during a large majority of the TAF fcst period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ067-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...HODANISH