243
FXUS61 KRNK 081811
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
111 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A weak disturbance will bring additional light rain showers
late tonight, mainly to the Piedmont, ahead of a strong cold
front that will pass across the lower Mid-Atlantic on Sunday
afternoon and evening. Unseasonably cold air will settle across
the region from early Monday into Wednesday, supporting rounds
of mountain snow showers, before the deep low pressure system
supplying the cold air moves away. Temperatures will moderate
closer to normal for the second half of the coming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Mild temperatures for the weekend.

2) A few chances of showers before cold front arrives.

Weather will be mostly quiet up until a strong cold front arrives
Sunday night to drastically change things. Today`s (Saturday)
weather is rather benign with a brief period of upper level cloud
cover to pass through later today. A little disturbance will pass
along a stationary front near the NC/VA border and give a decent
chance of precipitation for the central south VA and central north
NC counties overnight tonight. Total rain accumulations will be
between a trace and 0.10" but some localized areas may get up to
0.25". Early morning fog or mist is possible for areas east of the
Blue Ridge due to the overnight rain and low level clouds.
Elsewhere, there may be too much cloud cover to support fog
development.

On Sunday, there is another chance of precipitation due to a
prefrontal trough that passes through. The rain chances are lower
than on Saturday but will probably provide rain in the western
mountains due to their upslope nature. In addition, winds will pick
up from the southwest as the pressure gradient strengthens over the
Mid-Atlantic. Surface winds may be between 20-25 mph as a result. A
disorganized jet at 850mb may bring higher gusts to ridgetops but
the spatial extent may be limited as these winds will be parallel to
the mountains` orientation. Temperatures will be similar between
Saturday and Sunday afternoon but Sunday will still be warmer as
additional warm air is transported. Highs for Sunday are forecast to
be in the lower 60s to lower 70s. The cold front that has been hyped
is likely to pass through Sunday evening/night. Winds will shift
westerly and temperatures will begin to drop.

Confidence in this forecast is moderate high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EST Saturday...

Key Points:

1. Light measurable snow for the mountains Sunday night through
Monday night.
2. Well below normal temperatures, and very low wind chills,
especially Monday night into Tuesday morning.
3. Tuesday night will be colder than Monday night, but not with as
low of wind chills.

A look a the 8 Nov 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential Heights
shows for Sunday night, the axis of a highly amplified trough will
be moving east of the Mississippi River Valley. An almost equally
amplified ridge is expected to be centered over western CONUS. For
Monday/Monday night, the trough progresses to eastern CONUS while
also becoming slightly negatively tilted. For Tuesday/Tuesday night,
the axis of the trough pivots northeast, and is expected to be
centered over the Maine/Nova Scotia region around evening time. The
ridge over western CONUS builds north into British Columbia, and a
trough deepens over the Gulf of Alaska.

At the surface for Sunday night, low pressure and its associated
cold front will head northeast from the mid-Atlantic region into New
England. High pressure will be centered over the Northern Plains
states. For Monday/Monday night, low pressure and its associated
cold front continue heading northeast into the St. Lawrence Seaway
region. The center of a broad region of high pressure heads south to
the Arklatex region. For Tuesday/Tuesday night, the center of the
high shifts southeast to over GA/FL. Another cold front starts
heading southeast through the Upper Mississippi Valley/western Great
Lakes region.

A look at the 8 Nov 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures for Sunday night values falling quickly,
reaching a range of -9C to -4C, nw-se, by daybreak Monday. Values
continue to fall during the day on Monday, reaching -10C to -9C, nw-
se, by the evening hours. Values within this range will correspond
for most part of our region to the 0.5 to 2.5 percentile of the 30-
year CFSR climatology. Only a mild tick upward is expected Monday
night, before values increase to around -3C to -1C, ne-sw, by late
Tuesday afternoon.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. In the
wake of the cold frontal passage on Sunday, the system`s parent
upper low/trough will approach and reach our area Sunday night
through Monday. The result will be increasing west to northwest
winds behind the cold front and in advance of the approaching upper
trough Sunday night into Monday. However, even gustier winds are
expected Monday night into Tuesday once the axis of the upper trough
moves east of the region. With a prolonged period of
northwest/upslope flow in the west, and additional dynamic support
from the upper trough, we are still forecasting the first snow event
of the season for the mountains Sunday night through Monday night. A
transition of rain showers to rain/snow showers then to snow showers
is expected Sunday evening, with the highest elevations switching to
snow first. Measurable snowfall (0.1 inch or greater) will
primarily occur along and west of a line from Boone, NC to
Lewisburg, WV Sunday night through Monday night. Amounts in this
area are generally expected to be less than one inch, except the
Bluefield, WV to Tazewell, VA region which will commonly range from
one to two inches. Additionally, western sections of Greenbrier
County, WV will more likely experience one to three inches.  Within
these different regions, any higher peak or ridge has the potential
for a amount above the average. At this point in time, at least
flurries look promising east to the crest of the Blue Ridge. Early
on in the transition from warm to cold, there may a few pockets of
freezing rain and/or sleet, but these are expected to be short lived.

In addition to snow for the mountains, the combination of gusty
winds and well below normal temperatures, we will be looking at some
low wind chills, especially on Monday night/Tuesday morning. For the
mountains, values around the morning commute time are expected to be
in the single digits to near 10 degrees across the mountains, with
some of the highest peaks and ridges within the five below zero to
zero range. For the Piedmont region, wind chills in the teens to
near 20 are expected.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is high on the overall
synoptic setup of the system, moderate to high confidence on the low
temperatures and low wind chills, and low to moderate confidence on
snowfall amounts.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Saturday...

Key Points:

1. A quick rebound to at or slightly above normal temperatures
through the period.
2. No precipitation expected.
3. Potential for increase in fire weather concerns (see Fire Weather
section of this discussion).

A look a the 8 Nov 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential Heights
shows for Wednesday/Wednesday night, a broad trough over northeast
Canada deepens into a closed low. A equally broad circulation around
the low will still impact synoptic flow across much of the
northeast, Great Lakes, and mid-Atlantic portions of the US. A ridge
over western CONUS make a little headway eastward, and a trough over
the Gulf of Alaska closes of into a low west of the Pacific
Northwest. For Thursday/Thursday night, little change is expected in
the position and influence of the deep closed low over northeast
Canada. The ridge in the west makes progress into the Central Plains
states. The trough off the Pacific Northwest draws closer to shore.
For Friday/Friday night, the low over northeast Canada is expected
to open into a trough which will extend over the Canadian Maritimes.
The ridge over the Plains States trends more broad, with its axis
just west of the Mississippi River Valley by the evening hours. A
trough moves onshore the Pacific Northwest, south into CA. For
Saturday, the ridge axis moves east and is expected to be over the
eastern Great Lakes region, south into Gulf Coast states by the
evening. A trough over western CONUS broadens and becomes centered
over the Rockies.

At the surface for Wednesday/Wednesday night, the western Great
Lakes cold front crosses our region, and is expected to be over New
England around the early evening. High pressure remains centered
over GA/FL, but its northern extent shifts south in response to the
cold frontal passage. For Thursday/Thursday night, as the front
heads east of the region, high pressure begins to build back north.
For Friday/Friday night, the center of the high is close to SC/GA,
but the overall size of the high broadens. Low pressure and an
associated trailing cold front are expected to develop along the lee
of the Rockies. For Saturday, the center of the high shifts to off
the SE US coast, and the cold front heads east towards the
Mississippi River Valley.

A look at the 8 Nov 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures for both Wednesday and Thursday of +2C to
+5C, ne-sw, are expected for the region. For Friday, temperatures
increase to +5C to +8C, ne-sw. On Saturday, the warming trend
continues with values of +9C to +10C, ne-sw, across the region.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. With high
pressure anchored to our south, and still a significant low pressure
system to our northeast, our region will maintain at least some
degree of windiness with gusts, especially during the daytime hours.
The direction of the wind is expected to be from the southwest on
Wednesday, but become more west to northwest Thursday into Friday.
The more from the west to the northwest the wind can be blowing, the
more orthogonal to the orientation to most mountain ridges in the
area the wind will be. This direction helps to maximize the effect
of the wind blowing downhill, and mixing drier air aloft to the
surface. The downward motion provides subsidence, with the air
warming in the process. Likewise, drier air reaching the ground
helps to lower the dew point. The combination lowers the relative
humidity. Therefore, as we head into the latter portion of the work
week, our forecast will reflect a warming trend, and one with
relative humidities lower than guidance suggests, as the models have
a history of being too moist is this type of scenario. No
precipitation is expected during this period.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Saturday...

The weather is expected to be mostly quiet for the next 24 hours
with some small exceptions due to the possibility of scattered
showers overnight and again Sunday afternoon. Overnight, a
disturbance passes through near the VA/NC border and will bring a
chance of showers and low level clouds to KDAN and KLYH. KDAN has
the largest chance of receiving rain and early morning fog. Sky
conditions may degrade as far as LIFR as a result at this terminal.
KLYH may see some fog and rain but conditions may not degrade
further than MVFR.  Residual low level clouds may persist at KDAN
into Sunday afternoon but KLYH should return to VFR status after.
KBLF and KLWB have a chance of rain and MVFR skies Sunday afternoon
as a prefrontal line of showers is forecast to move through. These
are likely to be upslope based and confidence on these showers
reaching KROA and KBCB is low. In fact, KBCB and KROA may be the
only terminals to remain VFR for the entire time period. Only
other thing of interest is winds will start to pick up
regionwide from the southwest as a cold front makes its
approach.

Confidence in this forecast is moderate to high.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Winds absolutely spike from the west/northwest once the cold front
moves through. Wind gusts will persist into most of next week and
reach up to 25-35 kts along and west of the Blue Ridge. The cold
front will most likely bring wintry weather for areas west of the
Blue Ridge and primarily affect KLWB and KBLF. (Some flurries
sneaking into KBCB is not out of the question). Rain late Sunday
night will transition into snow by Monday morning but some freezing
rain could mix in at isolated locations. The possibility for snow
(less so freezing rain) continues into Tuesday. KBLF currently is
forecast to receive the most snow of 1-1.5 inches in total. By
the middle of next week, higher pressure moves in and skies
should clear up.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 100 PM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Enhanced fire danger concerns may return for the latter half
of next week.

After the big cool down on Monday/Tuesday, conditions begin to
moderate in terms of temperatures through the end of the work week.
This will be occurring while we maintain some element of a westerly,
eventually northwesterly, wind which will frequently have daytime
gusts close to 20 to 30 mph in the mountains and 15 mph to 20 mph
across the Piedmont. Lowering daily minimum RH values, and
subsidence in the east, thanks to the wind orientation, will help
for drying of fuels. These same fuels are the ones which received
generally less then one-quarter of an inch last night, and for
Sunday into Monday are expecting little to no precipitation. We are
still too early for high confidence in an enhanced fire danger
scenario, but with little to no additional precipitation after last
night`s minimal amounts, its potential has increased, and we will
continue monitoring.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...CG
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...CG
FIRE WEATHER...DS