054
FXUS61 KRNK 120642
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
242 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect high pressure to weaken today while moisture starts to
creep back north into the Carolinas and southern Virginia. A
frontal boundary across the mid-Atlantic will set up in this
general vicinity into early next week keeping shower and storm
chances around for Friday into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Clouds increase today but mainly dry for most.

2. Warmer than normal temperatures.

Drier airmass aloft to stay in place this morning per WV loop,
though humidity levels are increasing at the surface. The upper
pattern features a ridge over the southeast US with southwest
flow shaping up into southern Virginia with an embedded vort
tracking across western NC this afternoon. Should be dry for
most areas today with warmer than normal temperatures, reaching
around 90 possibly in the Piedmont, depending on extent of any
high clouds that blowoff from any storms that form across the
Carolinas into TN. Numerical models and ensembles are showing a
20-40 percent probabilistic of seeing measurable rainfall from
the southern Blue Ridge southwest of Floyd/Galax this
afternoon/evening but little to none north of a line from Marion
to Reidsville. Hence fairly dry and warm/hot for most.

Tonight, storms start to subside but still could see some
residual showers per embedded upper waves arriving across the
area from the west, mainly across southern VA south into NC.



&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Convection ramps up this period as frontal boundary pushes
into mid-Atlantic

2. A few storms could be strong and could contain heavy rainfall
rates.

Models in close agreement that upper ridge to shift slightly
offshore this period while trough works into the mid MS Valley
by Saturday morning. The flow over us will be wsw-ene and will
see a frontal boundary slowly edge south but hang up across
northern WV into MD this weekend. With plenty of moisture at
the lower levels/some solar insolation, the pattern will set up
for a daily cycle of scattered to numerous showers/storms and at
times more widespread, with higher chances in the
afternoon/evening. With this pattern, will have to watch for
areas that receive repeated rounds of rainfall. We`ve dried out
somewhat, but with pwats running 1.5 to 2.0 inches, storms will
be efficient rainfall producers. With no signal at this time for
where heaviest rain will repeat, no flood watches are
necessary.

As for severe, forcing is there as is some low level
instability. Signals and pattern recognition point to low chance
of severe but not non-existant as some water loading in storms
that can grow, could produce wet microbursts. Low confidence on
severe as cloud cover and coverage of showers may keep
instability limited.

Temperatures will run about 5 degrees above normal for highs
given pattern and more clouds, but lows will be on the muggy
side running 5 to 10 degrees above normal in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Continued daily chance of showers and thunderstorms through
the middle of next week, though lesser coverage as we head into
midweek

2. Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue.

Pattern will generally remain the same for Monday-Tuesday with
embedded shortwaves traversing the west-east upper flow and
interacting with a frontal boundary across the mid-Atlantic.
This could keep setup for flooding potential into early week.
After Tuesday differences in model solutions but ensembles point
toward upper ridge building back over the area sending the
front further north and putting us in a typical summer pattern
of scattered storms mainly in the afternoon/evening with
temperatures heating up again.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 105 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected to continue at all terminals for
most of the period. Exception being IFR/LIFR fog at LWB and
perhaps IFR fog 2-3sm at LYH/BCB in the 09-12z time frame.

Calm winds will become southerly throughout the mid morning and
afternoon hours on Thursday, but should remain less than 5
knots at all terminals. A few isolated showers/storms are
possible mainly south of a line from TRI-MWK-GSO later this
afternoon/evening, so expect taf sites staying dry. Look for
some sct/bkn cu and bkn cirrus later in the afternoon/evening.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Storm chances increase Friday into early next week as a frontal
boundary stays situated just north of us. Will not be a complete
washout and expect VFR interspersed with sub-VFR cigs/vsbys in
showers/storms and any fog.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...BMG/WP
AVIATION...AS/EB/WP