677
FXUS61 KRNK 231753
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1253 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will allow for dry conditions through Monday.
Another weather system moves through the area during midweek,
with a big cooldown expected for Thanksgiving and beyond.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

A drier and cooler air mass persists into Monday.

We stay ridge dominated through the period with mostly clear
skies. While some gusty westerlies are expected to mix down
today, the sfc high center slides east of the area for Monday
allowing for a south to southwesterly shift and lower
magnitudes.

Strong radiational cooling tonight should allow for temps to
get to the freezing mark for much of the mountains and mainly mid
to upper 30s in the Piedmont. Monday highs will generally reach
the mid to upper 50s for the mountains and low 60s for the
Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Low pressure will arrive early Tuesday, resulting in periods of
rain and isolated thunderstorms for the Piedmont Tuesday night.

2) Unseasonably chilly air will arrive Wednesday night in the wake
of a strong cold front.

Clouds will increase Monday night as a warm front associated with
our next low pressure system approaches. Rain will arrive across the
mountains toward dawn, and will gradually spread across the Piedmont
through the morning, making for periods of light rain through the
day.

The first of two cold fronts will make its way across the mountains
on Tuesday night, with latest data suggesting this front will be
capable of triggering isolated thunderstorms across the Piedmont.
Can`t rule out brief downpours, more so across the Virginia
Southside into north-central North Carolina, but flooding is not
anticipated. Organized rain will exit the area by around dawn
Wednesday as the first cold front moves away to the east, leaving
only light rain showers. The second cold front will pass across the
lower Mid-Atlantic during late Wednesday afternoon through the
evening, bringing with it significantly cooler air associated with
Canadian high pressure. May see a brief period of snow across
western Greenbrier County during late Wednesday evening as
temperatures drop to freezing, however moisture is not forecast to
remain long enough for any snow accumulations.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1240 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry weather is forecast through the period.

2) Temperatures will be 8 to 12 degrees below normal for Thursday
and Friday, and will trend slightly warmer for Saturday.

Expect the end of the week to remain dry as chilly Canadian high
pressure over the central Plains on Thursday gradually drifts east
to the Atlantic coast by Saturday evening. Among the weather
challenges through the period will be another day of breezy
northwest winds and low humidity on Thursday that may bring fire-
related concerns to portions of the Piedmont, depending on how much
rain falls on Tuesday into Wednesday. However, wind speeds will
decrease for Friday and Saturday as the center of high pressure
arrives. Otherwise, temperatures will range from 8 to 12 degrees
below normal for Thursday and Friday, before trending slightly
warmer for Saturday as winds shift from the south ahead of another
approaching low pressure system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1240 PM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions expected through period. Mostly clear skies look
to prevail across most sites aside from some FEW/SCT cu near
LWB. Winds generally west today 10-12 kts gusting 20-22 kts then
decrease to near calm overnight and becoming south to SE under 7
kts for Monday.

.Extended Aviation Outlook...

The next system arrives Tue to Wed evening with rain chances
and sub-VFR conditions, with VFR returning Thursday.

Monday through Tuesday, winds turn southerly, then veer SW
Tuesday night, and become westerly and gusty Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AB/SH