200
FXUS61 KRNK 131433
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
933 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring a mild end to the week with breezy
conditions persisting today. These winds are expected to
subside tonight with a more tranquil day Friday. The weekend is
looking warm as temperatures continue to moderate. A weather
disturbance passing across the Ohio Valley may bring some light
rain showers to the mountains this weekend. However, chances
remain low overall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM EST Thursday...

The biggest change this morning, was the addition of a fire
danger statement for much of Southwest Virginia and South
Central Virginia through this evening. With elevated winds and
continuing dry conditions, the environment is once again
favorable for possible wildfires to spread across the region.
Folks should take caution if burning outdoors again today as
winds can spread embers and lead to quick moving fires over dry
fuels. Outside of this concerns, today should once again be mild
across the region, with receding cirrus for those east of the
Blue Ridge throughout the remainder of the day.

Previous Discussion:

Key Message:

1) Staying breezy with a warming trend.

2) Mountain wave clouds just lee of the Blue Ridge this morning,
clearing for the afternoon.

Orographic induced cirrus/cirrostratus likely along/east of the
Blue Ridge this morning per moisture above 500 mb. Model
consensus is for it to thin and dissipate this afternoon.

Overall, still looking at another breezy/windy day per strong
low level winds aloft...models showing persistent 40 kt cross
barrier wind flow at 5000 feet AGL. This is on the northern
fringe of High pressure which covers the Deep South and within
base of the departing upper level trough over New England. As
long as we have a tight pressure gradient between these two
features, the wind is gonna blow.

For today, similar to yesterday, concern is still there for
fire weather. Wind magnitudes aloft are about 5 to 10 mph lower
in comparison, but it will continue to be gusty near ground
level. Combination of wind and low humidity are having a
profound drying effect and any sort of ignition, human or
otherwise, can cause fire to spread quickly through dry grass or
leaf litter. A higher level of caution is still advised until
the wind stops blowing.

That said, winds are expected to diminish at sunset today with a
more tranquil day expected Friday as the pressure gradient
subsides.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Temperatures will remain above normal through most of the period.

2) Light and occasional rain will pass across the mountains on
Saturday.

3) Gusty west-northwest winds return on Sunday as a cold front
passes across the lower Mid-Atlantic.

Unseasonably mild temperatures are expected for much of the weekend
as upper level ridging becomes established along the Appalachian
chain through most of the period.

While most of the lower Mid-Atlantic will remain dry through the
weekend, we can expect widely scattered and light showers to develop
across southeast West Virginia and adjacent counties in Virginia as
a warm front passes across the area on Saturday morning, followed by
the passage of a cold front on Sunday morning. Low pressure
associated with the cold front will bring a return of breezy west-
northwest winds for Sunday, with gusts potentially reaching as high
as 40 mph at times across the mountains.

While temperatures each day through the period will be near to above
normal, Saturday will be the warmest overall given passage of the
warm front, with highs ranging from 7 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EST Thursday...

Key Points:

1) Low pressure will pass across the lower Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday,
bringing the potential for rainfall.

Despite passage of a cold front on Sunday, the trailing airmass
behind the front lacks any truly cold air, and temperatures will
remain near normal for mid-November through the first half of the
next workweek.

High pressure will pass quickly across the lower Mid-Atlantic on
Monday before another low pressure system brings the chance for
periods of rain on Tuesday. Depending on the track this low pressure
follows, there is potential for portions of southeast West Virginia
and/or southwest Virginia to receive a half inch or more of
rainfall, though confidence remains low on rainfall amounts at this
point. Coverage of rain will decrease Tuesday night, though some
data suggests that light rain or periods of drizzle will linger into
Wednesday as the trailing cold front stalls across the Carolinas,
and high pressure builds southward from New England to wedge against
the eastern face of the Appalachians, resulting in a cooler
northeasterly windflow.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 700 AM EST Thursday...

Flight conditions are expected to remain VFR through the 24 hour
valid TAF. Main concern is the wind with potential for LLWS
early this morning due to decoupling of surface wind from
stronger cross barrier wind flow aloft across the Appalachians.
Daytime mixing will bring these winds back to the surface with
gusty conditions expected through the day Thursday. Wind
magnitudes should be about 5 kts lower compared to yesterday,
but it will remain rather gusty through the day before
diminishing at sunset.

There will be an area of mountain wave cirrus this morning,
cloud bases generally above 20kft. Models show this persisting
through about 16Z/11AM before dissipating this afternoon.

Forecast confidence is high.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure moves overhead promoting clear to partly cloudy
VFR skies on Friday. Conditions should be mainly VFR through
Monday outside any mountain rain showers that may bring local
sub-VFR cigs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 300 AM EST Thursday...

Key Message:

1) Elevated fire weather conditions expected today.

The combination of wind and low humidity will result in
another day of drying. Now that we have had a widespread
deep freeze, there is a lot more material available to burn.
The really low dewpoints the last few days, typical of an Arctic
airmass, and in combination with the wind, has really dried out
the leaf litter. Leaves are crunchy and receptive to fire. A
higher level of caution is advised if burning.

Temperatures will trend warmer into the upcoming weekend.
Warmest readings are forecast along and east of the Blue Ridge
where readings will return to above normal. Caveat, there will
be some clouds and showers around and a bit higher Rh, so there
is a trade off. Winds will diminish for Friday, but increase
again over the weekend, so not totally out of the woods with
respect to wind either.

In a nutshell, several more days of heightened awareness.

As for rain potential... Little or no measurable rain is
expected until next week. There is a slight chance of showers
across the mountains this weekend.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...EB/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...PM