305
FXUS61 KRNK 051509
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1009 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the southeastern United States will move
off the Mid-Atlantic Coast this afternoon. This storm system
was producing snow across the Virginias, mixed rain and snow
for northern North Carolina, and mainly rain farther south. All
of the precipitation is expected to come to an end by this
afternoon, replaced by high pressure for Saturday. Actual
clearing may be slow, so expect clouds and potential for fog and
drizzle to linger through Friday night. Another front moving
in from the west may bring a chance of precipitation late Sunday
into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM EST Friday...

No major changes were made to the forecast this morning;
however, the Winter Weather Advisory was cancelled for all areas
except Greenbrier, Bath, Alleghany, and Rockbridge Counties.
Snow is still coming down across these counties; however, has
primarily ended for the remainder of the forecast area. Some
frozen drizzle may continue across the area over the next couple
of hours; however, appreciable accumulations are not expected
from this.


Previous Discussion:

Key Messages:

1) Snow ending mid-late morning.

2) Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 1PM.

Snow ongoing across eastern WV, central and southern VA...with
mainly rain mixed with snow across northern North Carolina.
Respectable snow amounts should be realized across our WV/VA
counties where temperatures have slipped into the 20s. A solid
3 inches has fallen here in Blacksburg as of 4AM. Closer to the
NC border and into the NC northern piedmont, temperatures were
in the lower 30s...so snow accumulation there has been more of
a challenge. Webcams show mainly west roads from Martinsville
and Danville southward, with snow covered roads to to the north.

Low pressure over the southeastern CONUS is expected to move off
the coast this afternoon. This will bring an end to the wintry
precipitation from west to east. See no reason for the Winter
Weather Advisory to run much past Noon as model guidance
indicates that 99% of the measurable precipitation will be over
with by that time. As such, have modified all headlines to
expire at 18Z/1PM.

For the afternoon, looking at lingering clouds...temperatures
struggling to make much of a rebound. Concern tonight will be
refreeze and potential for freezing fog. Any clearing tonight
may lead to enough radiational cooling to promote fog formation.
This may be something to closely monitor for future forecast
updates with potential need for a special weather statement or
another winter weather advisory if it comes to fruition.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Quiet weather for most of the weekend.

2) Weak system moves in late Sunday into Monday, light snow possible.

3) Temperatures stay below normal, especially on Monday.

Weak surface high pressure builds over the area on Saturday, with
quiet weather expected to last through late Sunday. With a stalled
frontal boundary across the Southeast US, and a coastal low off of
the Carolinas, cloud cover will remain moderate to heavy over the
area for Saturday. Brief clearing occurs Saturday night into Sunday,
but another cold front across the Midwest moves towards our area on
Sunday, causing clouds to increase once again. The front will bring
some precipitation to the area, mainly west of the Blue Ridge on
Sunday afternoon. While most of the precipitation will be rain on
Sunday, the highest elevations could see some snow. By Sunday night,
rain transitions to snow as the front passes through. Behind the
front, snow showers will remain possible as an upper level trough
passes overhead for Monday morning. Any precipitation will be light,
but a dusting to a couple tenths of an inch is possible across most
of the area as it lingers through early afternoon. The trough moves
off to the east by late Monday, with a surface high building in.

Below normal temperatures continue, with highs only in the 40s area-
wide for the weekend. By Monday, the upper trough and additional
cloud cover will limit highs in the 30s, with a few low 40s in the
Piedmont. Overnight lows will stay relatively mild, in the 20s, due
to the aforementioned cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Unsettled weather returns mid to late week as subsequent systems
move through the area.

2) Near normal temperatures fall to below normal for the late week.

Quiet weather is expected Monday night through midweek, as high
pressure will remain over the Mid-Atlantic Region. The high slowly
pushes east as the next system moves into the area late Wednesday.
An Alberta Clipper will swing down through the Great Lakes Region,
and the associated cold front and upper-level trough will move
through Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Most of the
precipitation will be rain, though some snow could mix in for the
higher elevations, though confidence in this is low. Unsettled
weather continues for the rest of the late week, as yet another
system will move down through the Ohio Valley, bringing
precipitation to the area once again. Models vary widely in
precipitation type, timing, and synoptic features, therefore
confidence is very low in any details, but there is medium
confidence in a system impacting our area late week.

Temperatures will be mostly below normal, though Wednesday will see
a brief warmup. Highs will be in the 30s/40s Tuesday and Thursday,
with 40s/50s on Wednesday ahead of the cold front thanks to
southwesterly winds advecting warmer air into the area. Lows will
mostly be in the 20s, with some 30s mixed in Thursday morning for
the Piedmont.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 AM EST Friday...

Very poor flight conditions this morning with widespread
IFR/LIFR, due to snow and low cigs. Expect gradual improvement
between 12Z-18Z/7AM-1PM as the snow comes to an end, but think
low stratus may linger for most terminals through the day. Vsby
should increase for the afternoon but models suggest lowering
vsby again tonight due to the formation of fog and potential for
stratus to obscure the terrain.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Persistent low level cloud cover this weekend and another system
early next week may keep all terminals sub-VFR for a while. It may
not be until higher pressure moves in around mid-next week that
skies become clear, but another potential winter system may return
later in the week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     VAZ019-020-024.
NC...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     WVZ507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...EB/PM
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...JCB/PM