Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
673 FXUS61 KRNK 031722 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1222 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather will continue for most of the upcoming week. A frontal system this coming weekend will provide the next widespread chance of rainfall. Near to above normal temperatures are expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1215 AM EST Monday... Key Message: 1) No weather hazards this period. Low clouds have hampered temperatures across southeast WV and portions of southwest VA through midday, and model solutions having a hard time with it as they try to scour it out sooner than vis satellite indicates. Enough mixing of drier air should disperse these clouds this afternoon but cannot rule out that some low clouds linger into tonight. A west-northwest breeze this afternoon will start to subside overnight tonight except along the higher ridges as high pressure builds in from the southwest. Lows will be in the 30s for most areas. Jet induced high clouds are likely at times Tuesday though sunshine will be prevalent most of the day with temperatures rising to near normal in the mid 50s to near 60 west, to mid 60s east. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 100 PM EST Monday... Key Messages: 1. Gusty winds through Wednesday. 2. Dry weather for most, slight chance for isolated showers in SE WV late Wednesday. 3. Temperatures trending to above normal. A broad area of high pressure will be centered over the southern Mid Atlantic and southeastern US by Wednesday, with westerly prevailing flow aloft. A large 500mb trough will amplify as it moves across the Great Lakes and northern Mid Atlantic through the middle of the work week. The surface low will bring a cold front through the region late Wednesday night into Thursday as it moves in a similar path as the associated upper trough. Plenty of dry air over the area will keep precipitation chances confined to parts of southeast WV, mainly western Greenbrier County, where there may be just enough moisture advected from the Great Lakes to produce isolated upslope showers in that area. However, rain accumulations, if any, will be light at best, less than a 10% probability of 24 hour rainfall accumulations exceeding 0.1" in far western Greenbrier. The main impact from this system will be strong, gusty winds, as most areas along and west of the Blue Ridge have at least a 25% probability of gusts exceeding 30 mph, and some parts of Greenbrier County have a 40% probability of wind gusts greater than 40 mph. Another surface high builds into the area from the west following the frontal passage, and winds will relax Thursday morning. Temperatures trend warmer than normal by Wednesday, with strong southwesterly flow, highs in the low to mid 60s in the west to low 70s in the east. Highs Thursday will be closer to normal, in the mid to upper 50s in the west and mid 60s in the east. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s each night, but warmer Wednesday night/Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of Noon EST Monday... Key Messages: 1. Above normal temperatures through the weekend. 2. Strong cold front early next week to bring a chance of mountain snow and much colder temperatures. High pressure will shift east into the Atlantic by Friday with increasing southerly flow in advance of an approaching front from the west. This will result in warm temperatures on Friday that are well above normal. Some variation in rainfall coverage on Friday night with the passage of the front, but overall the timing of the frontal passage seems to be late Friday and into early Saturday. Flow behind the front will remain westerly on Saturday and the airmass still remains relatively warm. Expecting dry and breezy conditions. Southwest flow increases again as a deep trough begins to amplify across the Great Plains on Sunday. Guidance has been consistent in showing a strong system impacting the region Sunday and Monday, but still struggling a bit with timing and precipitation amounts. However, most guidance does indicate a very strong cold front will move through by Monday, bringing with it a sharp drop in temperatures and the first widespread chance of upslope snow for the western mountains. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1220 PM EST Monday... Low ceilings at BLF should clear by 21z. Otherwise VFR everywhere as high pressure builds in. Some indication for possible low clouds again tonight at BLF, but leaning toward dry air keeping cloud cover limited. Westerly winds will be gusty today, up to 20 to 25 kts by late morning through tonight, especially in the mountains. Winds will gradually decrease overnight. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR likely throughout the week. Gusty winds possible again by Wednesday from a mostly dry frontal passage. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SH/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...AS LONG TERM...BMG AVIATION...SH/WP