436
FXUS64 KSHV 092355
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
555 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

 - Cold High pressure has finally moved eastward across the MS
   River with southerly winds lifting in warmer air off the Gulf.

 - A warming trend will continue into Wednesday with another
   shift to NW with a dry passage of a bubble high of 1022mb.

 - Seasonal temps for the short term and above average 70s back in
   for Friday and to kick off the weekend, followed by another big
   1040+ mb surface high gusting NE winds overnight into Sunday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

11 a.m. obs have all improved with visibility, but temps will take
another hour or two at least. A mix of chilly upper 30s and lower
40s are set to add another 10 to 15 degrees for highs this mid
afternoon. The cold air mass will scour slightly out our local
river vallies for a warmer day on Wednesday, which should
preclude much fog for low clouds instead, breaking late morning
again. A range of 40s to start for most with some above average
60s for highs. However, the winds will be shifting from SW to NW
again to round out the with slightly cooler readings briefly on
Thursday, before resuming a move toward "room temperatures" for
Friday and Saturday.

Moisture return on the back side of the weak bubble high should
translate into some light showers on Saturday and Saturday night
before the next big cold front for Sunday. Our winds will be
backing (back dooring) to NE overnight, setting us up for more
clouds and eventually some light rainfall, less than a tenth per
WPC days 4 & 5. Meanwhile, our high temps will tumble back to
below average for the end of our long term here with more ascent
over the shallow chill from a 1042mb sprawling air mass pouring
down the MS River Valley, This will likely be bringing soil
wetting showers back in earnest during early next week, especially
if you like the ECMWF. For now, our QPF is from the WPC with
expectations for around a half inch widespread in their days 6 & 7.
/24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

For the 10/00z TAFs, VFR flight conditions should prevail
initially with high clouds eventually spreading southeast into the
area early. Southerly surface winds are expected to bring another
round of low clouds northward overnight. Winds speeds should
generally be strong enough to prevent fog development except in
the usual fog-prone locations. There is some uncertainty regarding
coverage and extent of the lower ceilings, but current thinking is
any MVFR or lower flight conditions should be limited to KLFK and
portions of Deep East Texas eastward into Central Louisiana. A
frontal boundary will move across the region after 10/12z causing
surface winds to gradually veer to the north. This should also
bring VFR flight conditions back to all TAF sites near the end of
the period.

/09/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  45  65  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  40  64  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  36  60  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  43  62  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  40  61  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  46  64  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  44  65  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  44  67  37  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...09