438
FXUS64 KSHV 101815
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1215 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1102 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

 - One more round of freezing temperatures across the Four State
   Region Monday night, into Tuesday morning.

 - A quick rebound in temperatures is expected through the middle
   and end of the week with highs in the 80`s returning.

 - Dry and breezy conditions through the first half of the period
   will elevate fire danger ahead of rain prospects by next
   weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 945 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Chilly temperatures will continue overnight tonight as low-level
cold air advection works with clear skies to maximize cooling.
Temperatures should be similar to the high 20s to mid 30s the
region saw Sunday night/Monday morning. The dry air accompanying
the cold air will prevent fog development even with the near-calm
winds expected. Given the verification of the recent Freeze
Warning areawide, the plan is to not issue anything for the cold
tonight.

The fall conditions won`t be here to stay just yet, as a gradual
heating trend will begin Tuesday morning. High surface pressure
just to the east will foster warmth and some low-level moisture
return. A low amplitude ridge in the western CONUS will also keep
dry, northwest flow in continuous supply and keep skies clear.
Highs will creep up into the upper 70s and possibly low 80s by
Friday afternoon. There will be a concern for increased fire
danger, especially in parts of East TX, during this time due to
the persistant dryness.

The next round of rain looks to be coming this weekend thanks to
an upper-level trough from the Pacific Northwest as early as
Saturday. There is some uncertainty on timing among the models at
this moment. Some have the trough developing a negative tilt and
moving through beginning Saturday afternoon. Other models have a
cutoff low developing and propagating slower, which would bring
impacts to the region on Sunday. While the trend is leaning towards
the latter, it is too early to disregard the former. One other
aspect worth mentioning is the severe potential with this system.
Convective composites are beginning to suggest favorable
conditions for supercells and other severe storms this weekend.
However, the differing model solutions make any solid forecast
tough this far out.

57

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

For the 10/18Z TAF period, VFR conditions will continue throughout
the period as mostly SKC will dominate aside from some very thin
cirrus passing through our western airspace this afternoon. N/NW
winds will average between 6-12 kts this afternoon with occasional
higher gusts before becoming lgt/vrbl or calm after 00Z Tuesday.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1152 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  35  67  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  29  63  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  63  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  32  66  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  28  61  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  36  67  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  32  67  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  33  69  51  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...19