156
FXUS64 KSJT 182328
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
628 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

As of the 2 PM hour low level stratus has scattered out across
most of the area. South-southeast winds, however, have remained
quite gusty this afternoon, with gusts up to 40 mph earlier at
Abilene. The gusty conditions will continue through the remainder
of the afternoon and evening hours. Low level moisture will
continue advecting into the area overnight resulting in another
round of low cloud development. Meanwhile, we continue to watch
the potential tropical system down in the southern Gulf of
Mexico. Model guidance shows showers and thunderstorms spreading
inland across the middle and lower Texas coast on Wednesday, with
this activity spreading westward to the I-35 corridor by the
afternoon. CAMs keep most of our area dry through the much of the
day, with some scattered showers and storms perhaps moving into
our southeastern counties by the mid-late afternoon. Will keep
40-50% PoPs confined to that area, with lesser PoPs back to the
west from San Angelo to Abilene. Cloud cover for most of the day
will keep our temperatures down in the middle 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The tropical disturbance in the western Gulf is forecast to become
Tropical Storm Alberto later today and track into northern Mexico.
The track would take the heaviest rainfall into northern Mexico and
South Texas, which would keep the bulk of rainfall south West
Central Texas. Still, at least scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible Wednesday night into Thursday, with the highest chances
across our southern counties. Given the farther south track into
northern Mexico, rain amounts across West Central Texas are looking
lower than previously forecast. Rainfall amounts will be higher
along I-10, in the 3/4 to 1 inch range, with amounts across the Big
Country forecast to generally remain below 1/4 inch. The increased
cloud cover will result in cooler temperatures. Highs on Thursday
will be in the 80s with highs on Friday  in the mid 80s to lower
90s.

Expect a general increase in temperatures this weekend into the
start of next week, with drier conditions. Highs Saturday will be
back in the low to mid 90s, with highs Sunday in the mid 90s to near
100.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Mainly VFR conditions at the moment but fully expect the MVFR cigs
to redevelop after midnight and continue into the day on
Wednesday. Unlike today though when the cigs lifted to VFR, the
increased tropical moisture moving into the area from the Gulf Of
Mexico will make it much more likely to remain as MVFR through the
day, Showers and storms will become more likely, but appears most
of this will hold off until after 00Z tomorrow so will leave out
of the terminals at this point. Next set of terminals will need to
start including rain chances though.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     71  87  70  86 /   0  20  30  30
San Angelo  72  89  72  87 /   0  20  50  40
Junction    72  84  72  86 /   0  40  60  40
Brownwood   71  84  72  86 /   0  20  50  20
Sweetwater  71  90  70  86 /   0  10  30  40
Ozona       71  87  69  83 /   0  20  50  60
Brady       71  82  70  84 /   0  40  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...07