164
FXUS62 KTAE 021825
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
125 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 125 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

 - There is a low chance of rain (10-20 percent chance) through
   Monday morning. Where rain occurs, it will be less than one-
   tenth inch. Thereafter, no additional rain is expected this
   week, so drought conditions will worsen.

 - Small craft advisories are hoisted in waters west of
   Apalachicola late tonight through Monday morning and exercise
   caution conditions in waters east of Apalachicola.

 - Below normal temperatures continue Monday but a warming trend
   begins Tuesday with temperatures back to normal and above
   normal beginning midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 125 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Cold front will reach our western counties in the next few hours
then move east and out of our eastern counties later tonight.
Regional radars show some light precipitation/virga over the
northeast Gulf waters moving inland, but with dewpoints in the mid
40s and dry low levels, may be hard pressed to get appreciable
rainfall to the surface. Maintaining 20% rainfall chances into
early evening with any amounts on the light side.

The area sits between two mid level troughs; one over Tennessee
moving east over the Carolinas Monday morning while the other
located over the west central Gulf moving southeast. As these
features head east, surface high pressure builds east from the
southern Plains. Reinforcing northerly flow will keep temperatures
below normal Monday with highs in the upper 60s to around 70
degrees. As surface high pressure heads east towards the east
coast Tuesday, and mid level ridging elongates across the Gulf
coast, winds clock around to the east by midweek and southeast
towards next weekend. This will kick start the warming trend with
temperatures gradually back to normal and slightly above normal.
Highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s mid to late week while
lows reach back into the 50s. This setup will also keep conditions
dry this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

A cold front sweeps thru the terminals today and this evening. Upper
clouds pass over ahead of the front with gradually clearing skies
from west to east in its wake. Light to variable pre-frontal
winds turn more northerly following FroPa by tmrw around 10 kts.
Overall VFR conds prevail with light precip possible invof of
TLH/VLD this aftn.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 125 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

A cold front will sweep through the Gulf waters this evening with
fresh to strong northerly winds in its wake. Hoisted a small craft
advisory in waters west of Apalachicola later this evening through
Monday morning as winds will be around 20 knots, whereas exercise
caution will be in effect for the remainder of the northeast Gulf
waters. Exercise caution conditions will likely persist into Tuesday
morning before winds relax and clock northeast to east as high
pressure will be situated near the east coast. Mainly dry
conditions are anticipated into next weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 125 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Winds turn northerly behind a cold front passage tonight with some
gusty surface winds reaching 15-20 mph on Monday. High pressure
slides to the east coast Tuesday with winds diminishing while
clocking to the east. Dispersions will generally be favorable over
the next few days while afternoon relative humidities will fall into
the 30-45% range. Dry conditions are anticipated through the
upcoming week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 125 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

No flooding is expected for at least the next 7 days.

There is a low chance of rain through Monday morning. Where rain
occurs, amounts will be light and will not be hydrologically
significant. The rest of the week ahead will be dry.

Drought conditions will therefore worsen this week. For more drought
information, visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   46  70  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   46  70  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        41  68  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        43  69  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      45  70  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    48  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  48  68  51  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday
     for GMZ751-752-770-772.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Scholl