116
FXUS62 KTAE 190012
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
812 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 811 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

A couple of showers and storms still lingering over the area this
evening should continue to dissipate over the next couple of
hours. Otherwise a quiet summer night is expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

An upper level ridge will be building to our east as the weak
tropical low dissipates over Louisiana today. Lingering showers
along the coast moving inland this afternoon will be capable of
strong gusty winds and heavy downpours, due to PWATs still being
elevated around 2 inches. Yet the high pressure will overall
reduce PoPs for Saturday, with rain chances ranging from 30-40
percent.

Temperatures this evening will be warm/muggy with lows in the
mid-70s. The high pressure will allow for warming temperatures as
we head into the weekend. Saturday`s highs will be in the mid to
upper 90s. With dew points in the 70s, heat indices will be
ranging in the 105-110 range. There will be some locations that
will reach 108 degrees, which meets criteria for a heat advisory.
However, these apparent temps don`t appear to be widespread enough
to necessitate one for tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Deep layer ridging will continue through the weekend. Slightly
drier air will filter in from the northwest, allowing for PoPs to
be reduced for the remainder of the weekend. PoPs will range
between 20- 30 percent for Sunday. And the high pressure will
allow temperatures to increase to the upper 90s, near 100 degrees.
Depending on how well dew points mix out in the afternoons, heat
indices will likely reach the criteria for a heat advisory by the
start of the work week. Heat indices are forecast to reach the
107-115 degree range. Advisory criteria is 108 degrees. We will be
monitoring through the weekend.

Following Monday, a surface trough develops to our northeast and
breaks down the ridge. This will increase our moisture content and
gradually lower our temperatures back to the mid-90s. Overnight
lows will hold steady in the mid-70s. PoPs will return to a more
summertime pattern of diurnally-driven thunderstorms with PoPs
around 60-80 percent each afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

At 2330Z, monitoring a line of TSRA just west of ABY. If these
develop further east, may need a TEMPO for TSRA, otherwise VCTS.
Additional TSRA south of VLD may necessitate an amendment if they
move closer to the terminal. All activity should diminish by
02Z/19.

As a subtropical ridge moves westward, drier air will move into
the region on Saturday. Low to mid-level flow southwest flow and
sufficient moisture favor a low chance diurnal TSRA near ECP and
TLH. As such, included a PROB30 group at both terminals. Cannot
rule out activity making it near DHN, but confidence is low attm.

Otherwise, cannot rule out a brief periods of MVFR from around
sunrise until 18Z as the daytime boundary layer gets established,
with cigs 2-3k ft, especially closer to the Gulf Coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Favorable marine conditions are forecast into next week as high
pressure builds through the Gulf waters. Southerly winds today
will become westerly by the end of the weekend with speeds near
and around 10 knots. Seas decrease to 1 to 2 feet beginning this
weekend. Fairly dry this weekend with showers and thunderstorms
returning early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Scattered showers and storms will continue this afternoon across
the area. Expect a decrease in coverage for the weekend as high
pressure builds over the region. High dispersions will be possible
each afternoon over southwest Georgia thanks to west to southwest
transport winds around 10-15 mph and high mixing heights around
6,000 feet. While fire weather concerns are rather low given the
abundant rain, heat concerns will increase through the weekend
with highs well into the 90s and heat index values of 100-110.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

For this weekend, a drying trend takes hold as deep-layer ridging
builds through the area. Moisture starts to return by Monday as a
surface trough develops and breaks down the ridge. This will
increase our rain chances into next week. The WPC has highlighted
the northeast 1/3 of our region in a Marginal (1 of 4) risk for
excessive rainfall on Monday. This risk expands to the entire CWA
for Tuesday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  96  76  98 /   0  30   0  20
Panama City   79  92  79  93 /   0  30   0  20
Dothan        74  95  75  96 /   0  30   0  20
Albany        74  96  75  98 /  20  10   0  20
Valdosta      75  98  76  98 /  20  10   0  10
Cross City    74  95  74  96 /   0  20   0  10
Apalachicola  79  90  78  91 /   0  20   0  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery