456
FXUS62 KTAE 191817
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
117 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1246 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

 - Fog may develop over the next few nights lingering into the
   morning commute. Where fog mixes with smoke, expect very
   restricted visibilities in localized spots. Use caution if
   driving during late night or early morning hours. Slow down,
   leave extra space, and turn on headlights.

 - No significant rainfall expected through the remainder of the
   week. Drought conditions will continue and/or get worse across
   the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 1246 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

The main forecast concern the next few nights is the fog
potential. Another round of fog is expected tonight with guidance
indicating a medium to high chance of dense fog. HREF
probabilities of dense fog are around 50-80% for all areas west of
the I-75 corridor tonight. Fog should develop near the coast late
this evening, then gradually spread north and east through the
night. A Dense Fog Advisory will likely be needed for parts of the
area either later this evening or tonight. Thursday and Friday
nights look similar, though the better signal for fog shift to the
eastern half of the area Friday night. Another concern is where
fog mixes with smoke from any ongoing fires. This could cause
visibility to drop to near zero in very localized spots.

If you`re out and about late at night or during your morning
commute, slow down, increase following distances, and use your
low-beam headlights, even after sunrise.

Otherwise, warm days continue with highs in the low to mid 80s. No
rain is expected through Friday. Lows will be in the 50s to low
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1246 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

A weak cold front moves through the area Saturday with only a low
chance of a shower (20% or so). PWATs are not very impressive (1.3
to 1.5 inches), and the parent shortwave is moving well to the
north of the area over the Ohio Valley and dampening as it does
so. For most, the only noticeable change will be a wind shift out
of the northwest behind the front late Saturday into Sunday. There
won`t be much temperature change, though the air becomes somewhat
drier. Highs each day through next Tuesday will be in the upper
70s to lower 80s with lows in the 50s to low 60s.

The next cold front arrive Tuesday, but uncertainty on quality of
moisture and amount of forcing this system have remain uncertain
this far out. We have plenty of time to watch this next system
leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

VFR conditions continue through this afternoon and into the evening.
Another round of fog is anticipated tonight across much, if not all,
of the area. TEMPO groups were added for fog at all terminals to
give a window of when the worst of the fog may be. Wasn`t confident
enough to go with dense fog (1/4SM) at any of the terminals quite
yet, but there is a moderate (50-60%) chance of KDHN and KECP
experiencing it tonight. There`s a lower chance (30-40%) for KABY
and KTLH with a less than 20% chance for KVLD experiencing fog that
dense.

The fog will lift and dissipate from east to west Thursday morning
and may linger until 15-16Z for KDHN and KECP. Once it does, VFR
conditions are anticipated with a light wind out of the east to
northeast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1246 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Light southeasterly breezes continue through Friday before winds
shift out of the south to southwest with gentle breezes Saturday.
Given the cooler shelf waters near the beaches and across
Apalachee Bay, some patchy sea fog will be possible at times given
the rich moisture moving in. Over the weekend, gentle
southwesterly breezes are expected ahead of a weak cold front.
Little to no rain is expected, but winds do clock around out of
the north to northeast Sunday and Monday behind the front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1246 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Light and variable transport winds on Thursday with mixing heights
around 3,000-4,000 ft will lead to low dispersions for much of the
area. Minimum RH values will mostly be in the 40s Thursday
afternoon. Transport winds will increase out of the south to
southwest for Friday and Saturday with higher mixing heights, thus
dispersions are expected to be fair to good both afternoons. Minimum
RH for Friday and Saturday afternoons will rise to the 50s and 60s.
Chances for wetting rains on Saturday are very low (less than 5%).

Fog, dense at times, is expected in the overnight and morning
hours the next few nights. Fog mixing with smoke will restrict
visibilities to near zero in localized spots.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1246 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Little to no rain is expected over the next 7 days. Even if a few
showers materialize Saturday, they will be few, far between, and
light. Thus, drought conditions will continue to persist and/or
worsen. For more information about drought locally, visit
www.weather.gov/LocalDrought.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   82  56  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   77  59  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        81  58  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        82  57  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      83  56  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    83  52  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  73  59  74  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young