069
FXUS64 KTSA 251453
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
853 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 853 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

  - Strong and dry cold front this afternoon will clear skies out
    and drop temperatures slightly below average through the rest
    of the week.

  - Wetter weather pattern arrives Friday night and into the
    upcoming weekend, potentially accompanied by colder air early next
    week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Widespread low clouds over the forecast area have kept the dense
fog to our west and north this morning. Light radar echoes over
western AR have shifted east of the forecast area as well. While
some very patchy drizzle cannot be ruled out over the next hour or
so, will go with a dry forecast for the remainder of the day.
NWrly winds are picking up across Nebraska and NW Kansas,
indicative of an approaching cold front. Current satellite trends
support an eventual NW to SE erosion of the low clouds this
afternoon into the early evening as the front pushes into the
region. Winds will pick up and will become gusty, especially to
the NW of Tulsa, but will stay well below advisory criteria. Highs
should climb into the 60s areawide, and will likely be the warmest
day we have for awhile.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1040 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Mid level shortwave centered over northern MO continues to move
quickly east, with a continued decrease in wrap around moisture into
NW AR and NE OK. Still seeing a few lingering showers but these
should wane over the next few hours. Low levels remain near
saturated over a large part of the area with widespread stratus
lingering through most of the local forecast area. Locations along
the western fringe of the cloud deck have seen dense fog at times
and some of this could build into parts of eastern OK, primarily
west of Highway 75 overnight. However, a weak surface trough
oriented N-S lies over eastern OK and later tonight this will slide
more to the east with a shift to a more west sfc wind, albeit light.
High-res data suggests this may result in subtle drying of the
boundary layer and ultimately reduce fog potential. For now no
advisory is planned, however a short duration one may become
necessary should later trends warrant.

A strong shortwave moving out of the Northern Rockies will swing
through the plains later today and push a more substantial boundary
through the region late morning and early afternoon. Drier airmass
behind the front will scour low level moisture out and result in a
return to clearing skies this afternoon with breezy northwest winds
gusting in the 20-30 mph range. So a warmer afternoon shaping up
despite frontal passage with highs reaching low-mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1040 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Sfc high will continue to build in from the northwest tonight with
temperatures ultimately dropping to near freezing in parts of NE
OK/NW AR. As the high settles farther south most areas will see at
least a light freeze by Thursday morning. Weather remains quiet
through Friday with temperatures slightly below average.

The overall idea of the forecast for the weekend into early next
week hasn`t changed, but a lot of details to sort out. A deep trough
is forecast to develop over the western states by the weekend with
increasing southwest flow aloft across the plains states. With this
and a return to stronger south winds at the surface, precipitation
chances do begin to increase by Saturday, with some thunderstorm
potential as well. Complicating factor will be potential surge of
considerably colder air, and when it may arrive. A trend toward
colder temps with continuing precipitation chances will be carried
into Monday, but forecast details for the weekend and early next
week will change over the next few days

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Widespread IFR ceilings will continue for at least the first few
hours of the valid TAF period, with general improvement from
northwest to southeast this afternoon and into early evening.
Satellite and surface observations reveal some holes in the
extensive cloud deck, mainly east of the E OK sites, with any
brief improvement at the W AR sites covered with TEMPO groups.
Gusty northwesterly winds /from 15 to 20 kts/ will develop this
afternoon and into the evening behind the cold front that will
push through. Clear skies should prevail by the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  34  51  32 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   65  37  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   66  37  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   63  30  51  27 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   62  32  49  30 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   61  32  47  31 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   63  34  51  32 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   60  32  48  31 /   0   0   0   0
F10   64  34  51  31 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   63  38  55  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...22