843
FXUS64 KTSA 200523
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1123 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1115 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

  - Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances through today and
    tonight. A few strong to severe storms possible.

  - Cold front Friday will drop temperatures closer to seasonal normal
    this weekend.

  - Increasing rain and storm chances again late weekend into
    early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1115 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

A warm front was observed moving back northward late Wednesday,
positioned near the Interstate 40 corridor as of late Wednesday
evening. This front will continue to lift north into northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the overnight hours as a
sfc low strengthens over the central high plains. By the early
morning hours, this front is likely to be near or just south of
the Oklahoma-Kansas border. Meanwhile, a potent mid-upper level
low was evident on GOES water vapor imagery, moving east into the
four-corners region. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to
increase in coverage through early Thursday morning as warm air
advection intensifies with the aid of a strengthening low level
jet. Storms may continue to be strong to severe through Thursday
morning, with mainly a large hail threat, provided adequate
instability and wind shear. Storms may also produce heavy
rainfall, but this will likely become the larger concern as we go
into the day Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms are projected to become more widespread
through the morning hours, especially in the vicinity of the warm
front (Hwy 412 to KS/MO borders), as well as across southeast
Oklahoma as strong height falls overspread the area. As the upper
low moves closer, moisture return intensifies and PWATs will
increase to near daily maximum climatological values. While it has
been dry for much of the region as of late, very heavy rainfall
will support localized flash flooding, especially for locations
that receive training/ repeated heavy rain, as well as in urban
areas. A lull in heavier precipitation may develop by early
afternoon as the warm front lifts north. However, additional
shower and storm development is likely by late afternoon/ evening
with the arrival of the parent low/ associated shortwave trough
axis. Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will again be
the primary concern with this activity, though some severe
potential may also evolve... primarily across southeast Oklahoma
and west-central Arkansas.

The severe threat this afternoon and evening will heavily depend
on rain/cloud coverage and the resultant degree of destabilization
earlier in the day. In the event sufficient instability develops,
strong bulk shear may help foster a few strong to severe
thunderstorms with a threat for large hail and damaging wind
gusts. CAMs generally suggest multicell storm mode, but some
supercellular structures could develop given veering wind
profiles and elongated hodographs. Low level shear may also be
supportive of a limited tornado threat if storms are able to take
advantage of it. However, antecedent cloudiness/ rainfall and
generally poor mid level lapse rates reduce confidence in the
overall severe threat and coverage we see later today.

Precipitation decreases from west to east tonight as the trough
axis passes overhead and drier air is advected into the region
from the west. Storm total rainfall amounts are still expected to
remain in the 1-3 inch range for most locations with isolated
totals in excess of 4 inches. While still well above average, high
temperatures today will be held in the upper 60s or lower 70s
given plentiful clouds and rainfall. Low temperatures tonight
remain quite warm... near the average high for this time of
year... in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1115 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

PoPs decrease significantly Friday morning as a cold front pushes
into the FA. A few showers remain possible through late morning/
early afternoon in northwest Arkansas, but additional rainfall is
expected to remain light. Otherwise, skies gradually clear through
the day, with most locations getting some sun before the day is
over. As the low pressure system translates eastward, sfc high
pressure expands into the southern plains with shortwave ridging
aloft. This provides a quiet and dry day on Saturday, though
temperatures will be cooler in the post-frontal environment (60s),
with low level cloudiness expected across portions of northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

By Sunday, another Desert Southwest upper low is forecast to
eject into the plains, bringing additional rain and thunderstorm
chances to the region through Monday. Strong moisture advection
brings a similar airmass back to the forecast area, with an
increasing heavy rainfall threat. Current QPF projections suggest
another 1-3 inches for much of the CWA Sunday and Monday. Today`s
rainfall totals will likely impact the extent of flood concerns
going into early next week, but at least localized flash flooding
does appear likely at this time. While severe potential cannot be
ruled out, early indications suggest this system will have less
instability to work with this far north, limiting overall chances.

This system will be departing with decreasing rain chances Monday
night into Tuesday. Longwave troughing then settles into the
central CONUS by mid week, with a strong cold front arriving
Tuesday night or Wednesday. This will bring noticeably colder air
into the region just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday (High
temperatures in the 40s/ 50s, lows in the 20s and 30s). Long
range guidance has hinted at the idea of some light precipitation
accompanying the frontal passage for several runs now... and
there is at least some potential for light rain or rain/snow mix
Wednesday/ early Thursday. However, given uncertainty at this
range, will hold PoPs just below mentionable. Looking further
ahead, a more sustained period of colder temperatures appears
possible going into December.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms into Thursday
morning will result in deteriorating flight conditions, with most
locations seeing prevailing MVFR conditions by mid to late
morning. Some heavier bands of showers or storms could result in
periodic IFR conditions, which will become more prevalent later in
the day Thursday. Signal still present for band of more intense
convection possible mainly from southeast OK into west central AR
late in the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  61  69  59 /   0  60  90  90
FSM   80  64  73  62 /  10  60  90  90
MLC   83  66  73  61 /  20  70  90  90
BVO   71  54  67  55 /   0  60  90  90
FYV   76  61  70  59 /   0  60 100  90
BYV   73  60  67  59 /   0  60  90  90
MKO   77  63  70  60 /  10  60 100  90
MIO   71  57  67  59 /   0  70  90  90
F10   78  63  70  59 /  10  60 100  90
HHW   83  66  74  61 /  20  80  90  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...14