Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 212327 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
427 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT
18HRS...ALTHOUGH WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF VFR CIGS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN AFTERNOON BREEZES WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN
25-30KTS AT KTCC AND KLVS.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HIGH CLOUDS TO THE REGION BUT LITTLE ELSE OVERNIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM
SLIDES EASTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ALL AREAS SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A TRAILING STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THIS LOW SEWD
INTO MEXICO OVERNIGHT. LEFT SLIM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS FOR LATE TONIGHT BUT SUSPECT THAT THE DRY
MID AND LOW LEVEL WILL MAKE IT RATHER TOUGH FOR RAIN TO REACH THE SFC.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO TWO VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS IN THE
DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT HEADED TOWARD NM SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG W-NW WINDS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EWD TO THE NE AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
INTERSTATE 25 FROM LAS VEGAS TO RATON LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG CROSS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MOUNTAIN WAVE SURFACING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAM12 CROSS SECTION
INDICATING THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
BE SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A CRITICAL/STABLE LAYER NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS
STRONGEST. NAM12 FORECASTING 65KTS OF CROSS BARRIER FLOW AT 700 MB
09Z SUNDAY JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO CREST-LINE JUST AHEAD OF
THE SFC COLD FRONT. STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT. ISSUED HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AS A
RESULT. COLDER AIR WILL PUSH RAPIDLY THROUGH NW NM SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
NW WINDS RETURN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT NOT AS AS STRONG.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY. ECMWF NOW IN LINE WITH THE GFS FOR
THANKSGIVING AND BLACK FRIDAY. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS EWD
FROM THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RECENT MERGING
OF AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH OF
HAWAII HAVE THROWN QUITE THE WRINKLE IN MODEL JET STREAM
FORECASTS. ADDITIONALLY...A NEW FLARE UP OF CONVECTION IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MAY THROW MORE FLIES IN THE OINTMENT. SUSPECT
SEVERAL MORE FORECAST SOLUTIONS WILL EMERGE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS BEFORE SETTLING ON SOMETHING SO UNFORTUNATELY...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR TURKEY DAY AND BEYOND.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

A SHORT-LIVED WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HUMIDITY RECOVERY TRENDING DOWN...ALTHOUGH STILL FAIR TO GOOD WITH
SOME EXCELLENT RECOVERY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY`S HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL CENTRAL AND
WEST...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE UPTREND OVER THE WEEKEND...AS WILL VENTILATION
WITH EXCELLENT RATES FORECAST SUNDAY. WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY
MID DAY SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIND WILL
ALSO FORCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY...
WITH SOME WETTING PRECIPITATION (ACCUMULATING SNOW) POSSIBLE ABOVE
9000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A DOWNTREND SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
BELOW NORMAL...THEN CONTINUE BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK PER THE
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS BACKED-OFF OF
ON AN END OF THE WORK-WEEK STORM AND NOW SHOWS WEAK RIDGING GIVING
WAY TO WEAK ZONAL FLOW BY FRIDAY...AS DOES THE GFS. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO TREND DOWN GOING INTO MID WEEK WITH COLD AIR REMAINING IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK IF THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WORK-OUT.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-521-523-526.

&&

$$

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