Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 261759 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1159 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HIGH IMPACT PERIOD IS UNFOLDING OVER THE
REGION BENEATH A STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD
STORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. IT WILL BE
WINDY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM. THE FOCUS FOR RAIN AND FOG WILL TRANSITION INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT AS A SHARP WIND SHIFT SLIDES SW ACROSS
THE AREA AND DEVELOPS A LARGE RAIN SHIELD. GUSTY WINDS WITH RAIN
WILL REDUCE VSBYS CONSIDERABLY AT KLVS AND KTCC BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH IFR EXPECTED. RAIN WILL ALSO TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ABOVE
7000FT TONIGHT WHERE SEVERAL INCHES IS LIKELY. GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1042 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO LOWER POPS SOME...THOUGH NOT DRASTICALLY...
FROM ROUGHLY ABQ SOUTH AND WEST...RAISING THEM A LITTLE
ACROSS/NEAR CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. ALSO LOWERED REMAINDER OF MORN SNOW
LVLS IN LIGHT OF A LITTLE LOWER OBSERVED SNOW LEVELS FROM ROUGHLY
THE SANDIAS/NORTHERN MANZANOS ON NNW THROUGH NNE. WEBCAMS AND
OTHER DATA SEEM TO INDICATE THAT SNOW NOT STICKING TO ROADS BELOW
ROUGHLY 8500 FEET AND PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER. WITH FURTHER DAYTIME
INSOLATION THROUGH CLOUDS AND AT LEAST SLIGHT TEMP RISES WILL NOT AT
THIS TIME ISSUE ANY WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS FOR TODAY. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...347 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AS A
STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM ARIZONA.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL FROM SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CIRCULATION SHOWING SIGNS OF CLOSING
OFF OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS A.M. ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO ABOUT 8000 FEET OVER WRN NM THIS MORNING...ANY IMPACTS
FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LOCAL...CONFINED MAINLY TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000-9500 FEET (I.E., THE TOP OF MT
TAYLOR...PEAKS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE MAGDALENA AND SAN MATEO
MTNS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS WHITEWATER BALDY AND MOGOLLON
BALDY IN THE GILA). HELD OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY WITH
IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH PEAKS OF WRN NM.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY OVER THE NE
QUARTER AS THE NELY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
DRAW IN COLDER AIR FROM ERN COLORADO. WILL UPGRADE THE WINTER
STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT
BTWN MODELS THAT A STRONG TROWAL (TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT) WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER NERN NM AND
THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6500 FEET OR SO TONIGHT FROM
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NRN SANGRES EAST TO THE NE HIGHLANDS AND NE
PLAINS. ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL PROGGED TO DROP TO AROUND 7000 FT
SHORTLY AFTERNOON SUNSET NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER SO RATON PASS
WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE ACT AROUND THEN. 00Z AND 06Z NAM12 WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE NE HIGHLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BELOW
6500 FEET OR SO BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE TOUGH TO COME BY.

MODELS TRENDING FARTHER WEST WITH THE NELY JET STREAK FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TRENDED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DOWN OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NOW EXPECTED OVER THE WRN AND SW MOUNTAINS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD TOWARD NM WEDNESDAY AND OVERHEAD THURSDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE A FEW MTN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUING WITH IDEA OF A MOIST
SOUTHERLY OR SWLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/WETTING TREND IS IN PLAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WEST AND BELOW NORMAL
EAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TREND UP WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FOCUS FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS IN AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
MONDAY TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHEAST QUARTER AND THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WETTING EVENT FOR THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE RATON RIDGE. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUESDAY DESPITE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOW
COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION FORECAST TUESDAY.

HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A WARMING/DRYING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE THEREAFTER...WITH WEAK DISTURBED
WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GFS AND MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE ECMWF
AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS LEADS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
STILL...LOW TO NO CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ540.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$




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