Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 281724 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1124 AM MDT WED SEP 28 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for
possible short-lived MVFR conditions with showers/storms at KGUP
this afternoon/evening. Otherwise, development and gradual
lowering of VFR cigs forecast through the TAF period with mostly
light winds.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 AM MDT WED SEP 28 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather, mainly across the western half of the forecast
area, through Friday. A drying trend will take place this coming
weekend, with Sunday through Wednesday expected to be dry.

The storm over southern CA will lift northeast and weaken today
and tonight, while higher level moisture from Tropical Storm
Roslyn will race northeast toward the state. This moisture will
impact the area from tonight into Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The storm over southern CA will lift northeast today through
Thursday, while mid and high level moisture from what`s left of
Rosyln overspreads the state. Meanwhile a weak back door cold
front will drop south across the eastern plains late today through
tonight. isolated showers and thunderstorms over the west today,
then expanding to central areas Thursday.

A deep trough will approach the west coast Friday, while moisture
continues moving north from Mexico into NM. A ridge of high
pressure will briefly be over NM saturday with drier conditions
developing, but isolated convection still possible. The west
coast storm will move inland this weekend. An increasing southwest
flow aloft will begin to scour out the moisture Sunday, with dry
conditions expected through Wednesday. It`s worth noting though
the ECMWF has Monday and Tuesday of next week has some
precipitation during this time as it brings a deeper trough
across NM. The models do agree on increasing winds for early and
mid portions of next. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As the upper level low continues to shift northward and shear out
over Arizona, mid level moisture will continue to be pulled
northward into western NM today. This should allow for a few more
storms than yesterday along and west of the ContDvd. There were a
few areas of heavy rain yesterday, and that could be the case again
this aftn/eve as PWATs continue to rise. Otherwise, expect
temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, and near to
above normal for all areas.

Overnight, high level moisture and cloudiness associated with
Tropical Storm Roslyn will overspread much of NM, while mid level
moisture persists across the west. The clouds should keep overnight
temps a bit warmer than this morning, but overnight RH should be at
or better than this morning thanks to the moisture advection.

Southerly flow will continue to draw up moisture on Thursday, and it
still looks like the best chances for widespread wetting rains will
occur on Thursday near and west of the ContDvd where PWATs creep up
to around 1 inch. Elsewhere, conditions look to be too stable for
precip to develop. Temperatures will hover to within a few degrees
of normal. Expect good to excellent humidity recoveries areawide
Thursday night.

Models tend to hang on to mid and low level moisture across the area
longer on Friday than previously depicted. Thus, isolated to
scattered storms on Friday will be possible, with even a few storms
as far east as the central mtn chain and/or the northeast plains.
The favored area for wetting rains, however, continues to be across
the northern mtns.

Stronger westerlies will usher in much drier air over the weekend
and temperatures will rise above normal areawide. Breezy conditions
will also be possible, particularly Sunday, due to a deepening lee
side trough.

There remains quite a bit of uncertainty early next week regarding
the progression and strength of the next trough. GFS shows the next
trough grazing northern NM, with winds picking up Monday and Tuesday
afternoons with daytime mixing. The latest ECMWF carves out a deeper
trough and swings it across NM on Tuesday, bringing some
precipitation with it. All in all, there is moderate to high
confidence that winds will increase next week, but very low
confidence whether or not any precip will develop.

Ventilation will improve today, with fair or better rates across
most of the area. Vent rates drop a bit on Thursday, particularly
across the northwest plateau where poor ventilation is expected.
Spotty poor ventilation is possible again on Friday across the
north, and over the weekend across the northeast plains.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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