Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 040314 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
914 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. BEST CHANCES REMAIN OVER OUR SW ZONES. ZONES OUT SHORTLY.
CHJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...601 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE IN BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL TROUGHS IN A MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAKING IT TOUGH FOR CONVECTION TO GET GOING
OVER CENTRAL AND NRN NM LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGE LIFTS NEWD
THIS EVENING...ALLOWING ISOLD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE RGV WWD. SW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUFFET THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE WRN HALF NM
FRIDAY MORNING AND OVER THE NW TWO-THIRDS FRIDAY AFTN.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS SPREADING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS MOISTURE PUSHES FARTHER NORTHEAST EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
INCREASED MOISTURE...CLOUDS...AND PRECIPITATION WILL MEAN COOLER
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE. SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY COULD
DECREASE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY SLIGHTLY WITH MUCH LESS
ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE A FEW MORE
DEGREES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST MODELS OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS HAD REALLY CONFINED THE
PRECIPITATION TO PRIMARILY THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF NEW MEXICO
FOR THIS EVENING...AND THUS FAR THIS SEEMS TO BE SHAPING UP
ACCORDINGLY. THIS MORNING`S PWAT OF 0.91 FROM THE ABQ SOUNDING IS
ABOVE AVERAGE...BUT NOT BY A TERRIBLY LARGE MARGIN...AND DEWPOINTS
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BACK INTO THE 40`S FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE SOME CLEARING WAS OBSERVED IN A FEW
SECTORS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ADDITIONAL BATCHES OF MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER ARE QUICKLY FILLING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.
IT`S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ANY BLATANT PERTURBATIONS OVER NM
YET...BUT UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS BLOSSOMING IN A HEALTHY FASHION
IN SONORA MEXICO. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS OF NM THIS EVENING...BEING THE PRIMARY FOCAL AREA FOR
CONVECTION. THE NOSE OF A SPEED MAX ALOFT IS ALSO WORKING INTO
WESTERN NM...AND THIS SHOULD PUSH STORMS NORTHEASTWARD AT
RELATIVELY QUICK SPEEDS.

MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER GAINS RISING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...NOT ONLY FROM THE SONORAN
CONVECTION...BUT ALSO FROM MORE UPSTREAM MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED
FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN. WHILE THE CENTER OF KEVIN IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND DRIFT SLOWLY OVER OPEN WATER...THE
CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE WILL STAY INTACT ON A COURSE FOR NM
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED MESOSCALE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS MODELS SHOW THIS PERTURBED FLOW INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM FRIDAY...BUT THE GFS REMAINS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH THE
MOISTURE RISES. STILL THE MET GUIDANCE SPITS OUT HIGH AND LIKELY
CATEGORY POPS FOR MANY ZONES...SO CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AS WAS ALLUDED TO YESTERDAY...THE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MORNING CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES
FOLLOWING MOIST ADIABATIC CURVES WOULD SUGGEST MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THE PERTURBED FLOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERCOME
THIS WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS UTILIZING MESOSCALE VORTICITY LOBES
AND INCREASED DIVERGENCE ALOFT FROM THE UPPER JET. ANTECEDENT SOIL
CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY...AND THE QUICK MOTION OF INDIVIDUAL
STORMS DOES NOT COMPLY WITH THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR FLASH
FLOODING. HOWEVER...TRAINING CELLS THAT REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE
SAME AREAS COULD ENHANCE THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

BY SATURDAY THE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MIMIC A RIBBON
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN CORNERS OF NM
WITH DRIER AIR STARTING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
THIS PLUME COULD ALSO DIFFUSE SOME...BUT STILL SOME SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CELLS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF BEST MOISTURE.
NORTHWEST OF NM ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BE
SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ADD MORE OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ALOFT OVER NM...ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHEN
MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRYING WILL ENSUE. THIS WILL INITIATE A
DECREASING TREND TO SHOWERS/STORMS. BY SUNDAY MOST ACTIVITY WILL
BE SHUNTED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE MERCURIAL WITH SOLUTIONS IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND. THE SURFACE FRONT
ARRIVING INTO NORTHEAST NM ON MONDAY WILL NOT INVADE MUCH OF THE
STATE...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH DOES STILL APPEAR TO BE ON
SCHEDULE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NOT ONLY THE GFS...BUT ALSO THE
EUROPEAN. THE PATTERN WOULD TURN WET DURING THIS MID WEEK PERIOD
FROM THE FRONT`S SURFACE CONVERGENCE...MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND
UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...THE END OF THE WEEK TRENDS DRIER WITH A
RIDGE ESTABLISHING OVER THE WEST COAST.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC LEE TROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE AN INCREASING TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SHORT
TERM MODELS INDICATE WETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST ACTIVE
THROUGH TONIGHT WEST OF THE RGV AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH
MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE RGV. CELLS WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST AND NOT LINGER IN ONE PLACE FOR TOO LONG...ALTHOUGH
SOME LOCALES IN THE WEST CENTRAL MAY SEE REPEAT SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MODELS SUGGEST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE ACTIVE FOR THE
CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. CELL
MOTION WILL AGAIN BE TO THE NORTHEAST. CONVECTION MAY BE MORE
NUMEROUS SATURDAY FROM THE CONTDVD TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MT CHAIN AS THE UPPER TROF TO OUR NORTH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...THEREFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE MOISTURE PLUME.

ON SUNDAY...DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO PUNCH INTO THE NORTH AS THE
UPPER TROF TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES IT/S EASTWARD TRACK. THE TAP OF
MOISTURE WILL BE DISRUPTED...AND DEW POINTS OVER THE NORTH ARE
FORECAST TO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY. A FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS MONDAY...BRINGING SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
A STRONGER WINDSHIFT MAY OCCUR NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...UPPING DEW
POINTS EVEN MORE IN THE EAST. HOWEVER...WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
GENERALLY FROM THE WEST...SO POTENTIAL FOR ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE SOUTH LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. THE 12Z GFS IS
ADVERTISING THE DEMISE OF MONSOON SEASON BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A STRONG FRONT SWEEP OUT ALL THE MOISTURE. HERE/S
HOPING...

VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN
DIMINISH MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WEST AND CENTRAL THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN
INCREASE TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THE EAST REMAINS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK. DESPITE THE CRATERING DEW POINTS SUNDAY...FORECAST MIN RH
REMAINS ABOVE 15 PERCENT AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES CONTINUE TO BE
GOOD...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE SO MUCH.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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