Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 311129 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
529 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE VCNTY OF KSRR. DO NOT
EXPECT THESE CIGS TO EXPAND CONSIDERABLY...AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED
THEM IN THE KROW TAF. MEANWHILE...EASTERLY GAP WINDS AT KABQ ARE
PERSISTING AROUND 15KTS...AND WILL DO SO FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.
THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...AND BREEZY AT
TIMES...WITH GUSTS NEAR 25KTS POSSIBLE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER ACROSS THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 22Z ALONG/WEST OF THE
CONTDVD...THOUGH MOST OF THESE STORMS MAY ONLY PRODUCE VIRGA AND
GUSTY WINDS. LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...317 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES. MODELS NOW TRENDING TOWARD SLOWER
AND STRONGER STORMS IMPACTING NM THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST TODAY AND MOVE ONSHORE
TONIGHT. A PIECE OF THE TROUGH WILL RACE NORTHEAST SATURDAY WHILE
THE MAIN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN. CLOSED
LOW MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN CA THEN MOVES EAST
INTO AZ SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ONLY TO BE REPLACED
BY ANOTHER DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER MEXICO AND WEST TX TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH WHERE THIS FINAL LOW ENDS UP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DIFFICULT FORECAST PERIOD COMING UP. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NM EARLY THIS AM WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKING
CONTROL. MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. COULD BE SOME THUNDER
AS WELL BUT RAINFALL WILL BE SCARCE.

GRADUAL MOISTENING PROCESS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS EXPANDING EAST ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS ON
SATURDAY. SNOW MAY FALL ON THE HIGHEST NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS PRECIPITATION COURTESY OF THE FIRST SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT EXITS THE MAIN TROUGH AND MOVES NORTHWEST OF US.

GFS EXPLODES PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY
AS IT GRABS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA AND WESTERN AZ. EUROPEAN AND ESPECIALLY THE
CANADIAN LESS IMPRESSIVE. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS BUT NOT
TO THE EXTENT THE GFS DOES.

THINGS REALLY GET INTERESTING PAST SUNDAY. MODELS ALL AGREE ON
EJECTING THE SECOND SYSTEM ACROSS NM IN A WEAKENED STATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BUT AGAIN SIGNIFICANT ENERGY IS LEFT BEHIND AND A
THIRD LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH. PLACEMENT OF THIS
CLOSED LOW DIFFERS ON THE MODELS AND WHERE IT ENDS UP GOING IS
ESPECIALLY INTERESTING. GFS AND CANADIAN DEVELOP THE LOW DIRECTLY
TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EUROPEAN CLOSES IT OFF
OVER BAJA CA. THE GFS STALLS THE LOW THURSDAY OVER WEST TX AND
ALLOWS DEEPER MOISTURE TO WRAP AROUND THE STORM INTO SOUTHEAST NM.
THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE CLOSE TO OUR CWA. THE LOW THEN MOVES
EAST FRIDAY ACROSS TX. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE CLOSED LOW RIGHT
OVER NM THURSDAY WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. REALLY
AT A LOSS AS TO WHAT TO FORECAST WITH MODELS SO MUCH AT ODDS. WILL
LINGER PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST TUESDAY AND SOUTHEAST ZONES THERE
AFTER. IT S EITHER GOING TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND MOST WET IN THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF
CHOICE. WITH THE OVERALL TREND BEING FOR SLOWER AND DEEPER SYSTEMS
THE ODDS ARE FAVORING A WETTER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED CONSIDERABLY WETTER THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THUS
CONFIDENCE HAS SHAKEN AND SOME BIG CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE IN THE
GRIDS.

FOR TODAY...HOWEVER...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE. COOLER TEMPS IN STORE AS
THE BACK DOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN AND HAS MADE IT TO NEARLY THE ARIZONA BORDER. DEWPOINTS BEHIND
IT HAVE ONLY MARGINALLY RISEN...INTO THE 20S FOR MOST LOCALES.
MEANWHILE...SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE STATE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN NEAR THE AZ BORDER...BUT WILL MAINLY
CONTAIN MAINLY VIRGA...OR SPRINKLES...AND GUSTY WINDS. A FEW STORMS
MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THEY SHIFT NE TOWARD THE NORTHERN
MTNS...BUT WETTING PRECIP WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...NOT THE RULE.
VENTILATION WILL START ITS TREND UPWARD TODAY...AND GOOD
VENTILATION EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT
WILL TREND UPWARD FROM THIS MORNINGS READINGS AS WELL. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE.

ON SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
EJECT SOME ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHILE
SECONDARY ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL START
TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ON
SATURDAY COMBINED WITH INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT WILL YIELD BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE AZ BORDER AND ACROSS THE
NE PLAINS. VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY INCREASE...THOUGH LOW MIXING
HEIGHTS ACROSS CENTRAL NM MAY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF POOR
VENTILATION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND JEMEZ
MTNS. HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NW THIRD OF
THE AREA...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE.

THE MAJOR CHANGE THE MODELS HAVE MADE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SUNDAY. AS THE SECONDARY LOW DIGS SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALI AND AZ SUNDAY...MODELS NOW HAVE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF IT TAPPING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC. LIFT
AHEAD OF THE LOW/TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING
RAIN...PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS. THIS IS QUITE A CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS. THOUGH THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF SHOW MORE
CONVECTION...IT IS NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE NAM/GFS. MEANWHILE...
SUNDAY ALSO CONTINUES TO LOOK BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY ALONG A
SW MTNS TO NE PLAINS CORRIDOR. VENT RATES LOOKS TO BE EXCELLENT IN
MOST AREAS...THOUGH DRASTICALLY DECLINE ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU AND
FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS WONT DECLINE UNTIL
MONDAY NOW...THUS MOST OF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY...SHOULD IT
OCCUR...WILL BE RAIN.

ON MONDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST OVER NM...THERE WILL BE
CONTINUE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND WITH SNOW
LEVELS LOWERING...THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS.
SOME STORMS MAY ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER. MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING THAT ADDITIONAL ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
DIG SOUTHWARD OVER OLD MEXICO...AGAIN CREATING A CLOSED LOW. MODELS
ARE VERY INCONSISTENT WITH HOW THIS LOW WILL EVOLVE...BUT FOR
NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY WILL BE DRY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW
NEAR THE BAJA...AND MIGRATING N/NE ON WED/THURS. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP OVER NM. THE GFS HOWEVER SHOWS THE LOW STAYING
SOUTH OF THE STATE AND MIGRATING EASTWARD...ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE. ADDITIONALLY...FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VENTILATION
LOOKS TO BE POOR AREAWIDE. 34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










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