Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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796
FXUS65 KABQ 291158
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
558 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Showers and thunderstorms will favor western and N central areas
today. The high pressure center aloft is forecast to shift SEWD
over TX by late this aftn, shifting the direction of storm motion
more out of the south. Thus, GUP will be favored for storms, with
smaller chances at KFMN and KSAF. Some mesoscale models are
developing spotty convection over the Sandia and Sacramento MTs as
well. This should stay E of ABQ and way E of AEG.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...345 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather pattern through the holiday weekend, but there will
be day to day differences.

High pressure over NM will mostly confine thunderstorms to the
higher terrain of western and northern NM today. The dry mid
levels will remain over portions of central and much of eastern NM
today. The high will shift southeast Thursday and Friday, opening
the flood gates to deeper monsoon moisture. The high will build
back over NM during the holiday weekend. Saturday will still be
active while Sunday and Monday will produce noticeably less
convection. Models diverge on what happens during the next work
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will be centered over northern NM today. Drier mid
levels will continue from the central valleys across much of
eastern NM keeping these areas rainfree. The exception may be in
the northeast where a frontal/outflow boundary could set up.

The upper high will drift southeast through the rest of this week.
This will open the door for deep monsoon moisture, first across
the west and north Thursday through Thursday night, then nearly
areawide Friday into Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will
increase Thursday and Thursday night, then peak Friday into
Saturday. An upper low originating over Baja/Gulf of CA will
advect north and northeast into NM Friday into Saturday, adding
to the deep layer moisture. It`s during this time the threat for
flash flooding will be the greatest.

There will be a noticeable decline in convection Sunday and Monday
as high pressure aloft builds back over NM. The long range models
then diverge later next week with the GFS keeping the high
centered over or near NM, while the ECMWF takes the high well
east. The European is wetter than the GFS, as moisture continues
to stream north over the state. Will go with a blend for now. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The center of anticyclonic circulation at 500 mb will shift from
near the Four Corners this morning, to eastern NM by this afternoon,
then into TX by Thursday morning.  This will shift storm motions
more out of the south this afternoon, then out of the southwest
Thursday. Moisture will remain a bit limited across northern and
central areas today where wetting footprints should continue to be
fairly small; however, PWATs should begin to increase out of the
southwest on Thursday as at least one shortwave circulation begins
to lift northward out of the Gulf of CA. Embedded in the 500 mb
ridge, this destabilizing feature is forecast to progress northward
then eastward around the broader high pressure circulation Friday
and Saturday crossing western AZ, the Four Corners, then southern CO
before ejecting eastward into the Great Plains Saturday night.  This
will be a wetter period with PWATs climbing to around 1.0 inch
Friday when coverage of wetting storms should be the greatest.
Northern, western and central parts of the forecast area look
favored for convection Thursday and Friday. Saturday, as the
shortwave trough progresses eastward through southern CO, showers
and thunderstorms will spread to include the eastern plains more,
while drier air begins to filter into the west.

Sunday through the middle of next week looks to be a drier stretch
with fairly spotty coverage of showers and storms each day as the
ridge axis builds westward over NM again. The GFS is still stronger
with a western lobe of mid level high pressure expected to build over
the Desert SW, but the ECMWF also shows some ridging westward over
the forecast area from the main center of high pressure over the SE
US.  An east-to-west oriented ridge axis like this will steer better
subtropical moisture westward across northern Mexico, rather than
northward into New Mexico. In fact, sub 15% min RHs are expected to
develop at lower elevations west of the central mountain chain
starting Monday.  Look for the ratio of dry to wet cells to increase
with some erratic and strong gusty winds.  Temperatures will also
trend well above normal next week, after dropping below normal in
many locations during the latter half of this week.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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