Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 171007
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
307 AM MST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and snow showers will develop across much of Catron, Socorro and
Lincoln counties today and tonight. Light snow accumulations are
possible across elevations above 7000 feet. The system causing the
precipitation will linger over New Mexico through Monday and Monday
night, though precipitation chances will diminish with time. Breezy
southwest winds will return on Wednesday as a lee side trough
strengthens. Thereafter, it looks to turn much colder with
precipitation possible across the north.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The center of the next upper level low pressure system that will
impact the state later today is inching eastward over the Baja early
this morning. This system will continue to shift eastward near or
just south of the AZ/MX border today, and ahead of it across SW NM,
rain and high elevation snow showers are expected to develop.
Showers and thunderstorms have already developed across southern AZ,
but there is abundant dry air surrounding this system. This dry air
is bound to be entrained into the system at some point, as it inches
eastward and elongates to the northeast through Monday.  For today,
precipitation will struggle to make it too far north into the CWA
and will mainly favor the southwest mountains. Later in the
afternoon and tonight, precipitation will spread farther east,
across the south central mountains. A stray lightning strike or two
is possible, particularly across the southwest. Will keep the winter
weather advisories going for now, but a little concerned that snow
amounts may be sub-par, or spotty at best. That said, since the
system is lingering over the area through Monday, there will be a
continued chance for showers across the southern reaches of the CWA.
Though, as stated earlier, the dry air entrainment should diminish
precipitation chances significantly by then.

The system will finally pull away on Tuesday, and temps should rise
a few degrees, except across the east where a weak back door front
will nose into the area.

Zonal flow aloft and an strengthening lee side trough will veer
surface winds around to the west and southwest on Wednesday.
Downslope flow should help warm temperatures several degrees across
the east.

Models suggest that another upper level low will dive southeastward
over the Intermountain West Wednesday and shift across the Four
Corners on Thursday. This system may bring some much needed snow to
the northern mountains Thursday and Thursday night when the Pacific
and back door fronts converge. Still too early to tell if there will
be much precipitation though, but it will certainly turn colder. On
the heels of this system may be another, which would turn temps even
colder and perhaps bring increased chances for precip across the NE.
With the way models have been handling the extended pattern, will not
get hopes too high for precip just yet.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The incoming storm system will be slower moving but won`t have a lot
of moisture or very cold air to work with. Best chances for
precipitation remain focused south of Interstate 40 today into
Monday, mainly over Catron, Socorro and Lincoln counties. The higher
terrain of Catron county looks to be most favored for any snow
accumulations, where isolated thunderstorms are also possible. High
temperatures today will be near to above average, with the greatest
deviation below average over the Gila. Humidities to trend upward,
with the greatest increases over the Gila to the west central
mountains. Today`s vent rates will be poor at the lower elevations
with fair to good rates across the higher terrain.

The upper low will slowly weaken as it reluctantly moves to the east
over NM Monday and Monday night. By Monday night chances for
precipitation taper off over the south. Highs on Monday will range
from 5 to around 10 degrees above average north and east to a few
degrees below average southwest. Poor vent rates will be widespread
west and central with areas of good rates east.

Highs will warm a little Tuesday under northwest flow as the upper
low finally moves into TX. Daytime humidities decrease south of
Interstate 40 by 10 to 20 percent. Tuesday`s vent rates to be fair
to good over most of the east with mostly fair to poor rates
elsewhere. Zonal flow aloft strengthens Wednesday along with a lee
surface trough, so look for gusty west winds over the higher terrain
and eastern plains. Wednesday may turn out to be the warmest day of
this week with highs about 5 to 15 degrees above normal. Despite the
potential for stronger winds and warmer temperatures, forecast vent
rates Wednesday afternoon remain mostly poor.

Considerable forecast uncertainty lingers for the later part of this
week into the Holiday weekend. Much colder air may be somewhat
slower to penetrate southward into NM on Thursday, but overall highs
will fall to below average north and west. Friday will be colder
still with highs overall 5 to 15 degrees below average. At this
time, chances for precipitation would favor areas north of
Interstate 40. Vent rates may improve Thursday but crater Friday. A
reinforcement of colder air could arrive Saturday/Christmas Eve with
chances for snow showers over the east.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Mid and high clouds will continue to increase late tonight as an
upper level low slowly approaches from northern Baja. Rain and
mountain snow showers from this system will begin to move into
southwest NM after 12z Sunday, spreading north and northeast to near
I-40 by 21z Sunday. Majority of TAF sites will remain precipitation-
free but cannot rule out a stray shower or two at/near KGUP, KAEG,
KABQ and KROW Sunday afternoon. South of I-40, sct-num rain and
mountain snow showers are expected btwn 12z Sunday and 06z Monday
with mt obscurations, mvfr/ifr cigs and vsbys likely.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  47  18  46  17 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  47  16  48  14 /   0   5   5   0
Cuba............................  45  21  46  19 /   5   5   5   0
Gallup..........................  48  16  46  11 /  10  10   5   0
El Morro........................  46  14  46   8 /  20  20  10   0
Grants..........................  48  17  48  13 /  10  10  10   0
Quemado.........................  43  23  44  20 /  50  20  20   5
Glenwood........................  48  30  48  29 /  70  40  40  10
Chama...........................  43  15  43  14 /   0   5   5   5
Los Alamos......................  45  28  46  27 /   5  10   5   0
Pecos...........................  46  25  47  25 /   5  10   5   5
Cerro/Questa....................  42  20  43  19 /   0   5   5   0
Red River.......................  36  14  38  16 /   0   5   5   0
Angel Fire......................  41   8  43   9 /   0   5   5   0
Taos............................  46  14  46  12 /   0   5   5   0
Mora............................  46  22  48  20 /   5   5   5   0
Espanola........................  49  26  51  24 /   0   5   0   0
Santa Fe........................  45  27  45  25 /   5  10   5   0
Santa Fe Airport................  47  24  47  22 /   5  10   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  47  29  46  26 /  10  20  10   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  48  30  47  27 /   5  20  10   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  49  27  49  22 /   5  20  10   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  48  29  48  26 /   5  10  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  50  25  49  18 /  10  20  20   0
Rio Rancho......................  49  29  49  26 /   5  10   5   0
Socorro.........................  48  30  48  26 /  30  40  30  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  46  24  46  22 /  10  20  20   5
Tijeras.........................  46  25  46  23 /  10  20  20   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  49  20  48  17 /   5  20  10   5
Clines Corners..................  46  26  46  24 /   5  30  20   5
Gran Quivira....................  46  28  45  24 /  30  40  30  10
Carrizozo.......................  49  31  48  29 /  40  50  20  10
Ruidoso.........................  46  29  46  26 /  60  70  20  10
Capulin.........................  46  21  52  20 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  47  19  55  19 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  49  20  56  19 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  47  23  50  23 /   0  10   5   5
Clayton.........................  45  27  59  27 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  46  25  53  23 /   0   5   5   0
Conchas.........................  54  30  58  29 /   0  10   5   5
Santa Rosa......................  55  30  56  29 /   0  20  10   5
Tucumcari.......................  54  30  60  28 /   0  10   5   5
Clovis..........................  54  31  57  31 /   0  20   5   5
Portales........................  55  31  57  30 /   0  20   5   5
Fort Sumner.....................  55  29  55  27 /   0  20  10   5
Roswell.........................  60  35  57  30 /   5  30  10  10
Picacho.........................  54  36  55  33 /  20  40  20  10
Elk.............................  51  33  51  30 /  30  60  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 11 AM MST Monday
for the following zones... NMZ508.

Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 11 AM MST Monday for the
following zones... NMZ526.

&&

$$

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