Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 291748 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1148 AM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016

An outflow boundary has pushed westward off the Sandias creating
gusty southeast winds at KABQ but these will begin to weaken
within the hour. The focus then turns to afternoon -shra/tsra that
may affect all areas except for KFMN and KROW. Greatest confidence
is generally btwn 22Z and 01Z for the RGV terminals and aft 20Z at
KLVS. Erratic outflow winds may gust to 30-35 kt. Overnight, the
convection will likely dissipate in all areas except for the
eastern plains which may impact KTCC.



Showers and a few storms lasting longer than expected as they have
been drifting south into and across e central NM, so added pops
there and up to vicinity of Santa Fe, also lower pops nw NM, for
the morning. Most of this should be gone before late morn.



A very slow eastward progression of the center of the mid and
upper level high pressure dome will begin over the next 48 to 60
hour period. A slow and general upward trend in the amount of
shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected through the
weekend for much though not quite all of the forecast area. Then
starting between Monday and Wednesday even more moisture may
spread into the west half or two thirds of the area which should
further increase the amount of much needed significant
precipitation, especially central sections of the state. While a
few high temperature records could still be threatened today,
overall later in the weekend and much of next week will see the
heat ease up a bit most areas.


A slowly southward sinking boundary is fairly evident as of this
writing from a little ways north of Tucumcari to a little south
through west of Raton. It has helped to trigger a few showers and
storms into the predawn hours and it may sag as far as near to a
bit south of Tucumcari to perhaps near or a little south of Las
Vegas late this morn or early aftn, then the additional showers
and storms it triggers will likely generate some outflows somewhat
further south and west later this aftn into the eve. Other
showers and storms will again generate elsewhere mainly to the
west and sw of boundary with emphasis on the north central and
west central to sw mtns. Boundary collisions may spark isolated/a
few storms farther south across the plains as well toward or by
eve. As per the general location of SPC`s marginal severe risk in
far ne NM, went ahead and indicated gusty winds and small hail
for that area but stopped just shy of actually painting all out
severe there as it was not a slight risk. Day shift may want or
need to update as needed.

The monstosity of a high over the Great Basin still looks like it
will begin a slow and migration of it`s center eastward over the
weekend and into early next week. Remnant moisture and perhaps
some additional from the s or se due in part from an easterly wave
passing s of the state should keep convection quite active across
the state.

Early next week, models continue to show the main upper high
shifting east of the state, with GFS model still stubbornly
hanging on to a secondary center to the west. The ECMWF has been
very consistent for at least 2 to 3 days with a weak trough
developing over NM or near the AZ line early next week and
hanging out nearly all week, which would be a nearly ideal
scenario for much more widespread wetting rains across much of
fcst area. The Canadian does also, though slightly weaker and
skewed more to central and east NM. General consensus is that
PWATs should increase as early maybe as the start of the new
week across the southwest, and pretty much all the area by Mon
aftn. Thus a good portion of, if not all, next week we should
be be dancing in the streets as the rain comes down. Still some
concern that climatology is still factoring in a bit, but the
closer we get to then with the models still supporting the wetter
trend the higher our confidence becomes.



No major changes to the gridded forecast. Hedged dewpoints thus
humidity readings a bit higher for next week based on the Monsoon
burst pattern. Hedged dewpoints...thus RH values slightly lower
today and lesser extent Saturday for the NW third. Also tried to
fuss with the convoluted nature to the plains boundary today.
Boundary has made a more southerly penetration into the forecast
area thanks to overnight convection. This boundary will serve as a
focus for stronger/wetter storms as the day progresses.

Near term highlights include Haines 5/6 values for western/central
areas today. Despite the marginally dry mid levels of the atmosphere
across western/central areas...some wetting rain footprints will
result and favor the mountains. The main focus will be found across
the northeast third thanks to the aforementioned boundary. Larger
footprints of wetting rain will exist with that activity and last
well into the overnight hours. Storms that do form across
western/central areas will contain unusually strong outflow wind
gusts so land agency personnel should take extra precaution for that
impact. The upper high will remain centered over the Las Vegas NV
area but weaken some thus allow for additional destabilization this
afternoon and most likely a little more storm coverage compared to
yesterday. Storms will tend to move on the slower side and generally
drift towards the east. The NE plains would be the exception due to
stronger transport wind speeds and higher severe potential with the
storms. Humidity overall will be trending up today compared to
yesterdays readings.

Humidity values will generally trend higher during the weekend.
Storm coverage including wetting rain footprints will also increase
this weekend as the upper high weakens and begins its migration
eastward. The weaker upper high will lead to additional
destabilization and allow storms to readily form over the higher
terrain and eventually drift off the terrain. Steering flow for the
storms will be on the weaker side. Gusty outflow wind will remain a
threat although the stronger readings will diminish
slightly...especially Sunday. The haines values will follow suit and
begin to lose their edge and significance. Breezy southerly wind
flow will strengthen across the eastern plains during the weekend

The upper high is expected to shift far enough east to allow a
fairly robust Monsoon burst pattern to develop next week. This burst
pattern would be considered a hybrid because a weakness or wave in
the upper levels may sit over the state during a portion of the
week. This wave would only help to destabilize the atmosphere and
keep the wetting rain threat alive and well. There is a little bit
of uncertainty as to how strong this wave would be and also timing
and position. That is important in terms of steering flow for the
storms and the have versus have nots in terms of wetting rain
footprints. Either way...the western half should be favored with
lesser amounts across the east. However, if a westerly steering flow
can develop sooner then eastern areas will receive a little more
precipitation. Also...the high pressure dome or cell is expected to
be much weaker versus what has occurred the past few weeks. This
means that the capping inversion found over the eastern plains will
be weaker and could unexpectedly break at times...thus creating some
wetting potential through the week. High confidence that the
humidity values will increase as the week progresses and that they
will be unusually high thanks to the burst pattern. Twenty four hour
humidity readings will be some of the highest if not highest values
so far this Monsoon season. Daytime temps actually trend below
normal as the week progresses...especially across the western half
to two thirds...a little above normal east.

Models keep the moisture going into the following weekend with a
trough off the west coast and the mean high to the east.





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