Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 050536 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1136 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTN...AND MORESO IN THE EVE...COULD SEE A FEW SHRA OR A
STRAY TSRA ACROSS NW NM AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ACROSS WESTERN NM IN THE
AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT LIKELY.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MANY AREAS WILL WARM INTO THE
70S AND 80S...WITH EVEN A FEW LOW 90S OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NEW
MEXICO LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY THEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND AND USHER IN
COLDER AIR ON BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 584DM H5 RIDGE CRESTING EASTWARD INTO NM TODAY IS PROVIDING A
DELIGHTFUL AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT BREEZES...BRIGHT BLUE SKIES...AND
PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES. A FEW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SAN JUANS/SANGRES WITH RECYCLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TERRAIN
DOMINATED CIRCULATIONS. A SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET
HOWEVER QPF VALUES WILL BE VERY LIGHT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL TREND
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS SHOW WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING EAST AND
AN UNSTABLE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL QPF VALUES HAVE DECREASED WITH NO
SURPRISE AS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IS LOCKED IN BENEATH THE RIDGE.
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT 5 TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY SOUTH WINDS. THE AREA OF SHOWERS IS THEN SHOWN TO SHIFT EAST
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHILE DISSIPATING THURSDAY NIGHT.

700-500MB LAYER WINDS THEN INCREASE TO NEAR 45KT FRIDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. WIND ADVISORIES ARE TRENDING MORE LIKELY
FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS VERY POOR FROM MOST GUIDANCE
EXCEPT THE ECMWF...WHICH CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE STORMS. THE GFS
NOW HAS A FEW STORM CLUSTERS OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE SURGING THE DRYLINE WEST OVERNIGHT.

BY SATURDAY...A POTENT DRY SLOT SHIFTS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
AHEAD OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
THE EAST WHILE NOTABLE COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES IN THE WEST. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BY LATE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THEN TREND BELOW NORMAL AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF I-40 THRU THE PERIOD WITH A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 9500 FT.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL SOME WARMING AND DRYING TO GO INTO THU BEFORE THE TEMP TREND
REVERSES. AFTN TEMPS TO BE MOSTLY 5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU
AREAWIDE...BY FRI GENERALLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE CENTRAL AND EAST WITH
SOME VERY MINIMALLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES SNEAKING INTO FAR WEST
CENTRAL AND SW NM. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO EASE EAST OVER THE
STATE TONIGHT AND INTO EAST NM LATER THU. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS WEST NM THU...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TO A VERY MODEST DEGREE...JUST ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER A FEW VERY HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOST OR ALL
DRY...ACROSS WEST THIRD OF NM LATER IN THE AFTN AND EVE. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING...BUT WHETHER MOISTURE WILL HAVE
INCREASED ENOUGH TO ALLOW SUFFICIENT CLOUD DEPTH FOR SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING IS STILL NOT CERTAIN.

CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS TO FINALLY COME BACK TO MUCH OF THE
WEST HALF OR SO OF NM BY FRI AFTN AS A HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL APPROACH FROM WEST HELPING TO PUSH A DECENT DRY SLOT INTO
MUCH OF THE STATE AND INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AS WELL. CRITICAL
CONDITIONS SEEM LIKELY AND OF LONG ENOUGH DURATION TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WX WATCH FOR FRI AFTN IN FIRE WX ZONES 106 AND
107...EMPHASIS BEING PLACED ON THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THIS AREA. NOTE THAT ZONE 109 WAS LEFT OUT FOR NOW ON BASIS OF
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AFTN TEMPS EXPECTED THERE AND SOME
RECENTLY RECEIVED MOISTURE THERE...THOUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THAT ZONE COULD BE MORE VULNERABLE. GUIDANCE FROM OUR IMET WAS
MUCH APPRECIATED IN DECIDING TO...FOR NOW...LEAVE OUT THIS ZONE.
STILL LATER SHIFT SHOULD REASSESS WHETHER THIS MIGHT WANT TO BE
INCLUDED BASED ON ANY POTENTIAL TEMP INCREASE OR OTHER IMPLICATING
FEEDBACK.

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE EAST
OF DRYLINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF NM
LATER FRIDAY...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THESE MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF WETTING RAINFALL AS MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
LIMITED. SURFACE DEWPOINTS LIKELY ONLY TO BE IN 30S AND LOW 40S.
BY SAT AFTN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO
EAST HALF OF THE STATE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS STILL THERE AS WELL
AS HAINES VALUES AT OR NEAR 6. THE DRY LINE WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST
OF THE STATE AS UPPER LOW PULLS NORTHEAST INTO UTAH WITH A POSS
SECOND CENTER JUST SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS NEVADA. EXPECTING ENOUGH COLD
AIR ADVECTION SUN TO LIMIT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS LIKELY
INTO MON BEFORE NEARING NORMAL BY TUE OR WED...THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ106-107.

&&

$$


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