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000
FXUS61 KCAR 270423
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1223 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cross the region into Saturday then slowly
exit to the east later Saturday into Sunday. A warm front will
cross the region Sunday. A cold front will cross the region
later Sunday into Monday. Low pressure will approach from the
west Tuesday and track south of the Gulf of Maine into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Update...
Clear skies across the region a this hour. Current temperatures
were ranging from the upper 20s across the north and the mid
30s Downeast. Current forecast in good shape so no changes.

Previous discussion:
High pressure will continue to influence the region tonight and
Saturday. For tonight, upper air model soundings show a very
dry column with a shallow inversion. Calm winds and clear skies
will help temps drop into the 20s across the region. By
Saturday, the high pressure starts to move off to the east as
the next low pressure system crosses the Great Plains. The
majority of the day will be sunny with light winds and temps in
the low 60s. By the evening, clouds will start building in from
the west with the approaching low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A weak warm front approaches Saturday night with increasing
mid/high level cloudiness, although it should remain mainly dry
Saturday night. Lows Sunday AM will fall into the mid to upper
30s. Models are in somewhat better agreement by Sunday that an
approaching weakening short wave and cold front will bring a
few showers into far northern portions of the region during
Sunday afternoon. Afternoon highs on Sunday will top out in the
lower 60s for most areas, except cooler along the coast with the
wind off the water. A weak cold front will cross the region
Sunday night, with a lingering evening shower possible, mainly
for northern and eastern portions of the area. Temperatures will
fall back into the low 40s for most areas except some upper 30s
in the North Woods.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure over Quebec province will briefly ridge
across northern Maine into Monday, with dry conditions. Monday
will feature light northerly winds that may gust at times
15-20mph. Modeled soundings showing the mixed layer up 900-850mb
so opted to lower Td`s a little resulting in lower RHs.
Expecting RHs in the 35-40% range across the Central Highlands
northward into Northern Maine. Downslope winds off the
Longfellow Mtns and Baxter Region will result in mid 60s across
the Greater Bangor area. Elsewhere in Central Highlands and
Downeast expecting low 60s with upper 50s across the North. Low
pressure will track to the north of the Great Lakes Monday
night and Tuesday. Moisture will begin to increase along a
frontal boundary to our west later Monday night and Tuesday.
This will bring the chance for showers Tuesday and Tuesday
night. There is some model uncertainties with the possibility
surface ridging to our North may shunt the precip southward.
Given this uncertainty did opt to lower POPs slightly below
what NBM suggests. Looks like upper ridge may build back by mid
week with a possible trend toward drier conditions. Another weak
system could bring more showers by late next week. Afternoon
highs are expected to be near to a bit below normal Tuesday and
Wednesday, and then above by Thursday. By Friday, another large
storm system will track into the Great Lakes while a warm front
lifts north into Maine suggesting another chance of showers
across the area. No widespread significant rainfall is expected
in the long term but chance of precip seems possible nearly
everyday.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR overnight and Saturday. Light and variable wind
overnight and Saturday morning, becoming S/SE around 5 knots
late in the day.

SHORT TERM: Sun...VFR/MVFR. -SHRA at northern terms. VCSH at
southern terms. S winds 5-15kt with gusts up to 20kt.

Mon...VFR. N winds 5-15kt with gusts up to 25kt.

Tue...VFR south, MVFR north. -SHRA possible. E-NE winds 5-15kt.

Wed...VFR/MVFR. VCSH/-SHRA SE winds 5-10kt.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will be below SCA conditions tonight
and Saturday.


SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below SCA conditions through midweek.
Slight chance of showers Sun night across the eastern most
waters. Chance of showers Tue into Wed. Seas generally 1-2ft
with perhaps up to 3ft 20-25nm offshore on Wed. Sea surface
temperatures generally 40-43F from the Downeast coast out 25nm
and east to the Hague Line including Passamaquoddy Bay.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...CB/TWD/LaFlash
Short Term...Sinko
Long Term...Sinko
Aviation...CB/TWD/LaFlash/Sinko
Marine...CB/TWD/LaFlash/Sinko