387
FXUS61 KCAR 180425
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1225 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance will approach from the west overnight, then cross
the region Saturday. High pressure will move south across the
region Sunday into early next week. High pressure builds south
of the area through the middle of the week.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Update...
At the surface, high pressure centered near Labrador will ridge
back across the region overnight with low pressure south of the
Gulf of Maine. Aloft, an upper level disturbance will approach
from the west. Expect partly/mostly cloudy skies north, mostly
cloudy Downeast, overnight. Low temperatures will range from
the lower to mid 50s across the forecast area. Have updated to
adjust for current conditions along with expected overnight
temperatures, clouds and shower chances.

Previous Discussion...
For Saturday, a disturbance to the south of the forecast area
will bring a surge of moisture into the region, with PWATs
Downeast surpassing 1 to 1.2 inches by late Saturday afternoon.
Scattered to numerous rain showers will spread across the
Downeast region, brining another round of rainfall to the region
late Saturday morning into Saturday evening. Across the north,
showers will be less likely, though overcast skies will keep
high temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70. Downeast,
rainfall and marine influence will keep high temperatures cooler
in the lower 60s.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Guidance, along with hires models, are continuing to advertise
showers over Downeast Saturday evening as upr lvl disturbance
interacts with nrn moisture field associated with sfc low
approximately 400 miles south of Nova Scotia. Rain should be on
the wane after daybreak. Ridge axis likely to take hold of CWA
Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon as upr ridge builds in.
Ridge will begin to slowly flatten Monday morning with next chc
for showers topping the ridge mid-late afternoon on Monday,
mainly across the north.

Temps will be cool on Sunday over Downeast zones with extensive
cloud cover and lingering showers. Locations over the north and
west will be the warmest areas on Sunday and Monday, with
Sunday expected to see temps rise to around 70 while Monday
temps may approach 80 degrees by afternoon.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Pattern during the extended remains unsettled with upper level ridge
over the Gulf Coast extending up along the southeastern seaboard.
How far north s/waves can track on the northern periphery remains up
in the air from model to model and from run to run. Northern stream
remains active next week but what impact this has on CWA at still
remains up in the air. Warmest days of the week look to be Tuesday
and Wednesday, and possibly Thursday too depending on speed of
front.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR across northern areas overnight through Saturday.
Across Downeast areas, VFR overnight into early Saturday
afternoon. MVFR then possible Saturday afternoon with showers.
Variable winds 5 to 10 knots overnight. East/southeast winds 5
to 10 knots Saturday.

SHORT TERM:

Saturday night...MVFR over Downeast terminals in showers with
VFR north in isold shower early. ENE around 5kts.

Sunday...MVFR Downeast early with VFR north. E around 5kts.

Sunday night...VFR. ENE 5kts Downeast, SE 5kts north.

Monday-Tuesday...Mainly VFR over Downeast terminals, with MVFR
in showers over Aroostook terminals. S 5kts increasing to
5-15kts Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...VFR over Downeast with MVFR possible
across the north in showers. SW 5kts increasing to 5-15kts
Wednesday afternoon.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
overnight through Saturday. Patchy fog overnight into early
Saturday. Showers, mostly during the afternoon, Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Winds will remain below small craft levels through
the middle of next week. Seas will build to around 5ft Saturday
night in northeasterly swell before diminishing Sunday
afternoon. Seas remain between 2-4 feet through Tuesday night.
Patchy fog over the waters likely to reduce visibilities
Saturday night into Sunday morning.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/AStrauser
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...Norcross/Buster
Marine...Norcross/Buster