Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 241115
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
715 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region today through Tuesday. A
warm front crosses the region Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Low pressure will approach later Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
715 AM Update: Skies continue to clear this morning as high
pressure begins to build into the area. Gusty winds persist this
morning, but as the snow is already beginning to age, less
blowing snow has been observed since sunrise. The previous
forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to
temperature and sky forecasts based on current observations and
trends.

Previous Discussion:
With the strong low pressure system pushing further into the
Canadian Maritimes this morning, high pressure will begin to
return to the forecast area today, leading to clearing skies.
The pressure gradient between the departing low and incoming
high will lead to gusty winds persisting into the afternoon
hours. Gusty winds may pick up recent snowfall through the early
morning hours across the north, which could produce rapidly
decreasing visibilities. As the day progresses and the snow
begins to age, the threat for lofted snow will decrease, but
gusty winds will still be capable of creating drifts, which
could impact cleanup operations well into the afternoon hours.

Cold air advecting in around the backside of the low will keep
temperatures below freezing this morning, which may lead to the
refreeze of any wet, untreated surfaces, especially across the
Downeast region where previous rain and freezing rain fell and
mixed with snow and sleet. Temperatures will gradually warm
through the day as CAA declines and skies begin to clear,
allowing for increased incoming solar radiation to the surface.
High temperatures today will lift into the mid 30s Downeast and
the lower 30s across the north.

Winds will become light and variable through the night tonight,
and coupled with mostly clear skies across the north and a fresh
snowpack, radiational cooling will lead to temperatures falling
into the lower single digits above zero across the north.
Downeast, lingering cloud cover from the backside of the
departing low pressure along with weak downsloping winds will be
enough to keep low temperatures in the teens to lower 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The high pressure system centered to the north over Quebec will
continue to influence the area through Monday. Though mostly
sunny skies are expected, E flow will bring cooler air into the
region, which will keep temps in the 30s. By Monday night,
clouds will start to creep into the south, which will help keep
temps in the 20s while the north will see temps drop into the
teens. By Tuesday, weak shortwave energy moving northward off an
inverted trof should increase clouds and push rain into
Downeast. By the afternoon, the rain should continue to move
north, with the warmer air brought in with the tropical
moisture. Expect temps nearing 40. By Tuesday night, a large low
pressure system over the Great Lakes is expected to phase with
the shortwave increasing chances of rain, especially in the
north. Expect temps in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A large low pressure system over the Great Lakes is expected to
swing a frontal boundary through the area Wednesday through
Thursday. Rain is expected to continue, but models do have
inconsistency with the ending of the rain, so decreased chances
from the NBM. A low pressure system developing of the coast of
the Mid-Atlantic states is expected to move north and over the
waters by Friday, then moving out by Saturday. However, the
models are very inconsistent with the QPF placement and track of
the system. Decreased precip chances across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions across all terminals through the day.
Winds becoming NW 10 to 20 kts with gusts 25 to 30 kts early,
then diminishing through the afternoon. VFR conditions will
continue through the night tonight, while winds become light and
variable in the north and northerly around 5 kts Downeast.

SHORT TERM: Monday through Tuesday...VFR. North/northeast winds
around 10 knots.

Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow north, with a chance
of rain and snow Downeast. East/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR. A chance of snow and
rain. East/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable.

Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR. Rain likely. Variable winds 5 to 10
knots.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR, then MVFR/IFR. A chance of rain. Variable
winds 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: An SCA is now in effect for the intracoastal waters
with wind gusts up to 30 kts, and will last through Monday. The
Gale Warning remains in place across the coastal waters through
today and tonight with winds gusting 35 to 40 kts early this
morning, becoming gusts to 35 kts on the coastal waters early
tonight. Seas will remain 8 to 10 ft through most of the day
today, gradually diminishing into the night tonight as high
pressure builds over the waters.

SHORT TERM: A Gale Warning remains in effect the coastal waters
through Monday. Gale force winds are possible for the outer
waters Monday night into Tuesday with SCA for intercoastal. By
Tuesday night, winds should decrease to SCA levels. Though winds
should decrease below SCA levels on Wednesday, seas 5-6 ft
should remain SCA until Wednesday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...AStrauser/LaFlash
Marine...AStrauser/LaFlash


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