323
FXUS61 KCAR 172213
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
613 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance will approach from the south tonight and bring
rain into the Downeast region on Saturday. High pressure will
move south across the region Sunday into early next week. High
pressure builds south of the area through the middle of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
6 PM Update...Some showers have formed again this afternoon
along the northern reaches of a seabreeze boundary from Southern
Piscataquis County east through central Penobscot County.
Increased pops to account for these showers. However, expect the
showers to dissipate following the ending of days heating as we
go into evening.

A weak shortwave will continue to push north and away from the
North Woods this evening, and as the sun sets, the lack of
surface heating will allow for diurnally driven showers to
dissipate. The same will be the case for showers along the sea
breeze this afternoon, which will quickly dissipate into the
evening hours. Cloud cover will begin to increase through the
overnight hours as the disturbances to the north and south lead
to an increase in mid and high level clouds. With light
southeast winds continuing and overcast skies, temperatures will
remain mild tonight with lows in the low to mid 50s.

For Saturday, a disturbance to the south of the forecast area
will bring a surge of moisture into the region, with PWATs
Downeast surpassing 1 to 1.2 inches by late Saturday afternoon.
Scattered to numerous rain showers will spread across the
Downeast region, brining another round of rainfall to the region
late Saturday morning into Saturday evening. Across the north,
showers will be less likely, though overcast skies will keep
high temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70. Downeast,
rainfall and marine influence will keep high temperatures cooler
in the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Guidance, along with hires models, are continuing to advertise
showers over Downeast Saturday evening as upr lvl disturbance
interacts with nrn moisture field associated with sfc low
approximately 400 miles south of Nova Scotia. Rain should be on
the wane after daybreak. Ridge axis likely to take hold of CWA
Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon as upr ridge builds in.
Ridge will begin to slowly flatten Monday morning with next chc
for showers topping the ridge mid-late afternoon on Monday,
mainly across the north.

Temps will be cool on Sunday over Downeast zones with extensive
cloud cover and lingering showers. Locations over the north and
west will be the warmest areas on Sunday and Monday, with
Sunday expected to see temps rise to around 70 while Monday
temps may approach 80 degrees by afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Pattern during the extended remains unsettled with upper level ridge
over the Gulf Coast extending up along the southeastern seaboard.
How far north s/waves can track on the northern periphery remains up
in the air from model to model and from run to run. Northern stream
remains active next week but what impact this has on CWA at still
remains up in the air. Warmest days of the week look to be Tuesday
and Wednesday, and possibly Thursday too depending on speed of
front.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR cigs will continue across all terminals through
tonight and into Saturday morning. Cigs will begin to drop
towards MVFR at Downeast terminals late Saturday morning as rain
showers move into the area. Northern terminals will likely
remain VFR through the day on Saturday. Winds E to SE at 5 to 10
kts during the day, and light and variable overnight.

SHORT TERM:

Saturday night...MVFR over Downeast terminals in showers with
VFR north in isold shower early. ENE around 5kts.

Sunday...MVFR Downeast early with VFR north. E around 5kts.

Sunday night...VFR. ENE 5kts Downeast, SE 5kts north.

Monday-Tuesday...Mainly VFR over Downeast terminals, with MVFR
in showers over Aroostook terminals. S 5kts increasing to
5-15kts Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...VFR over Downeast with MVFR possible
across the north in showers. SW 5kts increasing to 5-15kts
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will approach small craft advisory
levels tonight with wind gusts to 20 kts and seas 3 to 5 ft.
Winds will decrease into the day on Saturday but seas will
remain 4 to 5 ft into Saturday afternoon. Patchy fog may reduce
visibilities into early Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM: Winds will remain below small craft levels through
the middle of next week. Seas will build to around 5ft Saturday
night in northeasterly swell before diminishing Sunday
afternoon. Seas remain between 2-4 feet through Tuesday night.
Patchy fog over the waters likely to reduce visibilities
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...AStrauser/Buster
Marine...AStrauser/Buster